Efforts of the European Commission to push Serbia's accession to the European Union, they could stay without sufficient support from member states, which reveals a deepening rift within the Union over how candidate countries should progress towards membership.
The European Commission will ask the ambassadors of the member states EU, who are meeting in Brussels on Wednesday, to approve the opening of a new, third negotiating cluster with Serbia - a group of chapters that includes certain reforms that the candidate must implement before joining the Union. However, several member states are skeptical of the idea, while the Netherlands is ready to veto it, five diplomats and officials familiar with the closed negotiations told Politico.
The dispute over Serbia is part of a wider discussion about the future of EU enlargement. In recent years, the European Commission increasingly views enlargement as a geopolitical instrument that should encourage countries in the Union's neighborhood to move closer to Europe and away from the influence of competing powers. However, some member states fear that the candidate countries could receive the awards before they have made sufficient progress in the areas of democracy, rule of law and judicial independence.
The opening of the third cluster would enable the start of negotiations on the harmonization of Serbian regulations with the rules of the EU single market, including cross-border services, recognition of professional qualifications and facilitation of business between countries.
"The opening of Cluster 3 in Serbia's negotiations with the EU is long overdue," said Serbian European Integration Minister Nemanja Starović. He estimated that Serbia has been stuck at that point in the accession process for almost five years.
"It would be difficult to argue that the reforms implemented by the state administration of Serbia since 2022 do not deserve such modest progress in the process," said Starović.
According to him, a new postponement of the decision would represent a missed opportunity to encourage future reforms and would be "the best possible gift to anti-European political forces, both in Serbia and across the continent."
The European Commission generally shares this assessment. Officials in Brussels have long recommended the opening of the cluster, but the decision requires unanimous support from all 27 EU members. The process was stopped due to the concerns of certain countries about the state of human rights in Serbia.
The Netherlands, however, continues to oppose the opening of new opportunities for Serbia's progress on its current course. Diplomats of two other EU members assessed that the opening of a new cluster in the near future is unlikely.
One of them believes that the progress of Serbia, which maintains close relations with Russia, would send the wrong message at a time when Ukraine and Moldova have not yet opened all formal negotiation clusters.
"Using enlargement as a geopolitical tool to keep Serbia with Europe only works until the country enters the Union. After that, it becomes a headache of geopolitical proportions," said one diplomat who criticizes such an approach.
Opposing assessments of reforms in Serbia
Last month, the Belgrade Parliament adopted amendments to a series of controversial laws that the ruling party passed at the beginning of the year. Legal experts warned that these changes could threaten the independence of the judiciary and the fight against corruption.
At the same time, the Serbian authorities point to almost two dozen legal changes adopted in order to harmonize with EU rules, including strengthening the management of European funds and bringing them closer to the regulations of the Union's single market.
However, the European Commission's estimates send different messages.
In an internal document distributed to member state ambassadors ahead of Wednesday's meeting, which Politico has seen, the Commission states that Serbia has "recently implemented significant parts of the commitments" it made to Brussels.
The document concludes that Serbia has "removed the setback" that occurred after the controversial laws were adopted in January and that its request for progress in the negotiations should be supported.
However, just a few weeks earlier, in a classified report on Serbia obtained by Politico, the Commission expressed serious concerns about the state of human rights.
The report states that "pressure on civil society organizations and journalists has intensified," including discrediting campaigns against individuals and organizations that advocate for the rule of law and the fight against corruption.
The European Commission's analysis also assesses that there was no progress in a number of major corruption cases, including investigations into the fall of the railway station canopy in Novi Sad, when 16 people died and which caused a large wave of protests across Serbia.
If the decision to open the cluster is not made, the European Commission will try to find other ways to reward Belgrade for the implemented legal changes, two officials said.
A list of possible options is being prepared in Brussels, but it is unlikely to be presented before the early parliamentary elections expected in the coming months, following the sudden announcement by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić that he will not run for president again. He is expected to run for the position of prime minister.
"We remain fully committed to implementing further reforms and expect those efforts to be recognized through merit-based decisions," Serbian Foreign Minister Marko Djuric told Politico.
He assessed that in the case of Serbia, EU enlargement is "obviously mutually beneficial" and "an act of strategic predictability".
"It is enough to look at the map," said Djuric.
According to him, Serbia has recently taken "significant legislative and institutional steps" in order to strengthen the rule of law and directly respond to the recommendations of the European Commission.
Source: Politiko
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