Today (March 20) officially started spring, but this year, due to above-average warm weather, weeks before March 20, the good weather season has already opened throughout Serbia.
Dr. Vladimir Đurđević and Lazar Filipović from the Institute of Meteorology of the Faculty of Physics in Belgrade explain when, and why, spring began in Belgrade so early.
Due to climate changes, in the last ten years, spring weather has arrived in Belgrade almost a month before the calendar start of spring, i.e. on average already on February 22, writes Jelena Kozbašić from the Klima 101 portal.
How was the analysis conducted?
The goal of the analysis was to determine how big the gap is between today's arrival of spring and the arrival of spring at a time when the consequences of the temperature rise in the capital were not so pronounced. Meteorological data dating back several decades were used.
Taking the standard climatological norm for the period from 1961 to 1990, the so-called average temperature in Belgrade on March 20.
In the given time frame, the average daily temperatures varied from an icy minus 2,8 degrees Celsius, as measured on March 20, 1962, to plus 17,4, as measured on March 20, 1990. The average temperature on the day of the arrival of spring in Belgrade was 8,8 degrees Celsius.
In order to determine whether and by how much this season is really early, sequences of at least five consecutive days with an average daily temperature equal to or higher than 8,8 degrees in Belgrade in the last 65 years were mapped.
What is the conclusion?
According to these parameters, in the last three decades, that is, from 1991 to 2020, the first such series in Belgrade is reached on average around March 3. Spring weather therefore conquers Belgrade's streets and parks more than two weeks earlier than it was the case only a couple of decades earlier.
But when one approaches the present and looks only at the last decade (2016-2025), the difference compared to the "unofficial" and calendar start of spring is even more dramatic - a streak of five or more days with spring temperatures occurs as early as February 22.
This means that spring arrives in Belgrade today 26 days before the calendar "strikes" the arrival of spring.
In other words, every subsequent year when you notice that spring has taken over Belgrade - and March 20 is nowhere in sight - it is not a sign that you are living in a parallel reality, but in the reality of climate change.
How is it today?
Although the weather in Belgrade, as well as in the rest of the country, has been warmer than normal for weeks, spring was still late compared to this new, unofficial "normal", and was welcomed on March 7, 2026, still two weeks ahead of the calendar.
This year, spring arrived a little later than the new normal, but if we were to compare it with the period from 1961 to 1990, the situation would be different. During these thirty years, only five spring starts were earlier than this year.
Spring will come in January.
The arrival of spring varies from year to year, sometimes we wait for spring weather until April, and sometimes it appears already in January.
It is interesting that in the period from 1961 to 2026, and according to the previously defined parameters, the January spring in Belgrade occurred a total of five times in 1991, 2002, 2007, 2014 and 2025.
It is worth noting that the beginning of spring in Belgrade in January, due to climate variability, is probably eight days before 1961, considering that Belgrade has data on meteorological measurements since 1888.
In contrast, the citizens of Belgrade waited the longest for spring weather in 1962, when it arrived only on April 19.
Consequences of early spring
These insights confirm how climate change is not only signing fierce summer heat, but also redefining the seasons, not only raising the mercury in the thermometer for March 20, but also pushing back the start of spring.
Namely, awakened by warmer weather, fruit trees bloom on average two weeks earlier. In the flowering phase, they become an easy target for spring frosts, and the more open the bud, the greater the sensitivity.
Also, in the case of migratory birds, their return from "wintering" no longer coincides with the period of greatest abundance of their food.
This is about the so-called phenological disturbance, i.e. changes in the timing of seasonal biological events in the light of global warming, Klima101 points out.
Today, on average, more than 25 more summer days are recorded than before, which means almost a whole month is added to the warmest season here.
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