In a narrative that is carefully nurtured in the domestic public, the story is about love Chinese towards Serbs occupies a special, almost mythical place. Presented as “iron friendship” forged in a shared past and cemented by support in difficult times, this thesis has become an unavoidable part of political discourse and popular culture. However, while with enthusiasm welcomed by Chinese officials and investments, and raise bilateral relations to a "friendly" level, the question arises whether behind this grandiose rhetoric there is true affection or whether it is a skillfully conducted geopolitical and economic strategy.
WHAT THE RESEARCH SAYS?
There is no available research on how Chinese citizens perceive Serbia and Serbs. Do the Chinese love Serbs or is it the exclusive fruit of our perception? Here we should start by explaining whether the friendship is really "steel" and unreserved.
According to a survey by the Institute for European Affairs, conducted at the end of 2023, the vast majority of citizens consider China a friendly country, 75 percent of them. Almost half of the respondents have a positive attitude towards the Chinese political system, while 64 percent believe that future relations will be even better. It is interesting that almost none of the respondents, 96 percent of them, had never been to China.
Also, the research showed that 38,5 percent of the surveyed citizens, on a scale of one to five, gave the highest rating to the relations between Serbia and China. About 35 percent of respondents gave a rating of four, while a fifth gave the relationship a medium rating. It is interesting that the majority of citizens who perceive China as a friendly country are informed about relations between Serbia and China through television, while the smallest part is informed through social networks.
Additionally, there are regional and generational differences in perceiving China as a friendly country. At least middle-aged people, in Belgrade and larger cities, see China as a friendly country.
An IPSOS survey conducted a year before the mentioned one gives similar results - about 64 percent of respondents had a positive opinion of China.
On the other hand, support for the European Union in Serbia (as the biggest rival to Chinese economic influence) has significantly declined in the last twenty years. And while at the beginning of the 80s, 40 percent of citizens had a positive attitude towards joining the EU, today that number is only slightly above XNUMX percent. The reason lies not in the growth of Chinese influence, but primarily in the inconsistency and sluggishness of European integration.
SOFT POWER OF THE CHINESE
Unlike some other superpowers, China's influence in international relations is based exclusively on soft power - predominantly economic. By investing in large infrastructure projects, building roads, ports, railways and energy plants, as well as providing large loans without excessive guarantees, China ensures a political presence in regions of importance to it. This is primarily about developing countries, with a special emphasis on the countries of the Global South, the Western Balkans, as well as the members of the "Belt and Road" Initiative.
With enormous investments, China not only works to create good bilateral relations (consequently strengthening its presence), but also often creates situations in which the countries in which it invests become economically dependent. This approach, without the conditions that are characteristic of the EU (rule of law, democratic standards, etc.) is particularly appealing to developing countries.
In addition to the economy, cultural diplomacy is an integral part of China's soft power. By exporting the Confucian doctrine, China creates the image of a peacetime superpower that has exclusively "friendly" intentions. This is how silent propaganda is created in which China is presented as a better option, in contrast to "those" who are solely guided by their own interests.
USING OPPORTUNITY MOMENTS
Just as the positive attitude of the Serbian public towards Russia and the belief in historical friendship is based on the belief that Russia was always ready to help the Serbian people in great adversity, so even today the idea of "steel friendship" in political narratives is built primarily on moments of crisis.
Thus, the popularity of China and the Chinese in Serbia grew enormously during the corona virus pandemic when official Beijing donated equipment and vaccines. On the other hand, China often supports Serbia's positions in international organizations, primarily the United Nations, which is additionally used to strengthen the narrative of "steely friendship". For example, the incident from 1999, when NATO planes bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade and killed three Chinese citizens, is still very much present in public discourse. Although the Chinese reaction in the Security Council at the time was primarily based on the violation of their sovereignty, a myth about friendship between Belgrade and Beijing was also created around this event.
All these narratives especially come to the fore during the visit of Chinese officials to Belgrade, when the concept of "steel friendship" and the special attention of the Chinese towards Serbia is further emphasized.
DO THE CHINESE REALLY LOVE US??
The "Belt and Road" initiative, launched in 2013, represents China's global investment strategy in more than 150 countries and international organizations - many of which are located in Europe itself - and Serbia is just one of them.
From the beginning of 2022 until today, China has invested slightly more than six billion dollars in Serbia through investments and construction - according to the data of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) think tank. For the sake of comparison, for the same period of time, more than nine billion were invested in Hungary. In the Western Balkans, Serbia leads in terms of the number of Chinese investments, but when you look at the world map on the AEI tool that maps all Chinese investments, you can see that there are still many countries, on different continents, with which China has a "steely friendship".
On the other hand, in the last ten years, the EU has invested more than four billion in grants in Serbia, as well as seven billion in soft loans.
When it comes to foreign trade, China's share has grown in the last two years - before 2021, China was not even in the top five partners. When countries are considered individually, China is currently the largest exporter to Serbia, while Germany is the largest importer. When it comes to Serbian exports to China, it is problematic that most of the products (mainly ore) of Chinese companies operating in Serbia are exported.
What is problematic about Chinese investments is that they are often lumped together with loans in political narratives. These loans are extremely attractive to developing countries because they bypass the strict procedures and guarantees that exist with Western creditors. However, such loans can lead to debt slavery (although currently Serbia is far from that), as almost happened to Montenegro.
As the Raskrinkavanje portal recently wrote, Serbia has borrowed from Chinese banks in the last fourteen years for an amount slightly less than 4,5 billion euros. One of the biggest problems with these loans is the obligation to engage Chinese companies in the implementation of projects. That is why most contracts are not available to the public.
"STEEL FRIENDSHIP"
The mythical belief that the Chinese love Serbs stems mainly from two things. Firstly, from the Chinese soft power with which the official Beijing is gradually changing the international scene and secondly, from the current political discourse in Serbia which constantly insists on "steel friendship", presumably in order to show all the power of Serbian diplomacy and build an alternative to the Western Hemisphere.
Serbia's relationship with China is inseparable from the path to the European Union. For Belgrade, close ties with Beijing represent an important part of the foreign policy strategy of balancing between the great powers. On the other hand, the European Union, although still the largest trading partner and investor (considered as a whole), expresses concern about the growing influence of China. The free trade agreement with China, which entered into force in July 2024, represents a special challenge, and the EU previously announced that it will cease to be valid the moment Serbia becomes a member. Given that this is still in the distant future, Belgrade continues to strengthen ties with Beijing.
In addition to economic influence, China is building a strong foothold in the Western Balkans - in Serbia - through cultural diplomacy. For China, Serbia is a key point in the Western Balkans, a region that Beijing sees as the "gateway to Europe" and an important hub within its global "Belt and Road" initiative. By playing the "Chinese card", Belgrade is trying to strengthen its negotiating position towards Brussels and Washington. However, this relationship is not unconditional - China's interest in Serbia is primarily strategic, and if Serbia does not meet expectations, Beijing will undoubtedly look for another partner in the region.
The backbone of Chinese influence in Serbia is infrastructure projects and investments, often presented as a gift or an act of friendship. However, in practice it is not quite like that. These are often loans from Chinese banks that, although they contribute to the development of infrastructure, represent a burden on the budget of Serbia and are ultimately paid for by the citizens, not China. Also, the contracts for these projects are often non-transparent, concluded without a tender and are accompanied by controversies regarding workers' rights and environmental protection. On the other hand, numerous investments in which existing facilities, mainly industrial, are taken over, are the backbone of the export of raw materials from Serbia to China. The reality is that these arrangements primarily serve China's strategic interests by providing it with a market, resources and employment for its own companies and workforce.
This complex game on several fronts shows that the relations between Serbia and China are not based on emotions and "steely friendship", but on cold calculation and pragmatic, mutual interests.
