It has long since become pointless to comment and analyze Aleksandar Vučić's statements, because they are essentially nothing more than "flying kites", fiddling, lying and boasting. It seems that the president has an innate resistance to the truth, so he avoids it even if there is no excessive need or clear reason for it. And he especially avoids it if his team and he can be harmed by it. However, let's dwell for a moment on his claim from the other day. He said, namely, that local elections are uninteresting and unimportant for citizens, that only about two percent of the country's residents think about them. And why, is the opposition and critical public at all concerned with these ephemera, he says, in addition to all such important global turbulences and the general offensive of various enemies against Serbia?
Let's start from the assumption that he somehow slipped up and that what he is saying has something to do with the truth, that is, what is written in one of those everyday "secret" researches paid for by citizens' money that greet him on his desk in the morning, and which are probably the only literature he consults in recent decades. If we abstract the fact that the results of the survey depend on the way a question is asked, that is, we believe that it is true that citizens are really fundamentally uninterested in local elections, then this in itself is a political and social disaster.
This means that centralization and self-government have entered the terminal phase and that citizens have agreed to local authorities being exclusively and only insignificant representative groups that are a flow boiler for decisions made somewhere higher. This also means that the regime's propaganda has produced its results and that citizens are more devoted to "big issues" than their own lives. This would also mean that there is no longer even a "d" from democracy in Serbia, because autonomy and political life within local self-governments is one of the foundations of a democratic and pluralistic society, as stated in numerous international documents, which the opposition should also be aware of. , whose parties should not copy the ruling ones and that local committees should only be implementers of decisions made in Belgrade.
THE EMBRYO OF THE LONG ANNOUNCED PEOPLE'S MOVEMENT FOR SERBIA
Fortunately, things don't seem to be quite like that. That is, that this statement is just an echo of the president's wish that the next Belgrade and other local elections be held in as much silence as possible, that is, to be, as much as possible, strangled in the dark. Every defeat at the bar for the progressives represents a symbolic disaster and a signal of loss of omnipotence and a prelude to some future defeats. Therefore, such a thing is not an option. And because of this, the progressives perceive every election as a war in which all means are allowed.
How important local elections are to Vučić is shown by the fact that his party will appear in the broadest client coalition at the next Belgrade event. ever. Such a coalition will, very likely, appear in other local elections as well, certainly not all of them, regardless of whether they are, partially or fully, held in June, early July or in the fall, i.e. at the end of the year, as the opposition's latest request reads. . In that coalition are the SNS, the once brash but now domesticated SPS, various PUPS, Zavetnici, "Sešeljevci", "Ljajićevci", "Vulinovci", and even the Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians. The list also includes Branko Kockica, tennis player Janko Tipsarević, Zika Šarenica and other "respectable people". If someone had told us ten years ago that such a minotaur-coalition would exist, we would have thought that he had taken LSD and had a "bad trip". And now nothing really surprises us anymore.
It seems that the coalition is the embryo of the People's Movement for Serbia that Vučić announced a long time ago and whose main purpose is not to unify the political parties in power and, consequently, greater success in the elections, but to put them under one paw. In short, Vučić will become the president of the SPS and the president of the SVM through the Movement. For others, it was before. We will see, however, whether this coalition, despite media hype, will have the so-called synergetic effect: it is not, for example, impossible that some traditional SPS voters will not vote for Vučić's list. Or SVMs. Maybe what he does is too much for them.
In parallel with the fact that he presents himself as the undisputed leader of all "patriotic forces", Vučić asserts himself as the emperor of all Serbs in the region, whom he takes care of day and night, even during snack time. This is what the recent visit to Bosnia and Herzegovina and the way in which the visit is covered by the regime's media is for. Again for election purposes, what else, I'll beg nicely.
photo: marko čoković / tanjugSNS IN FULL CAMPAIGN: Collecting signatures...
CHANGES START LOCAL
The fact that citizens are still more interested in city and municipal issues than before is shown by the recovery of the local opposition, more numerous and active committees, as well as civic groups and initiatives that operate throughout Serbia. Despite everything, a good part of the citizens are maturing politically. The results of previous elections, including the results of voting for local community councils and the turnout in these once really unimportant elections, speak for themselves. Changes start at the local level, the progressives are well aware of that, and that's why they came up with a strategy: screw up (we apologize for the expression, but it's the most suitable) the opposition and critics of the regime in every possible way, turn each of their victories into a defeat, force topics that the importance of local elections is minimized by running one's own campaign for them, organizing numerous pseudo-events or communicating events in such a way that key social and political topics, which is certainly the theft of elections, drew attention.
In order to hide the story of "electoral engineering", which everyone is aware of, and from the corruption and crime of heavenly heights, it is necessary to spread panic about a possible Third World War. In conditions of major crises, citizens have a harder time deciding on changes, and even on the premises, agreeing to be protected by the worst. Emphasize stories that point to the nation's vulnerability: they are taking Kosovo away from us, we are not giving it back; they want to take Republika Srpska, but they can't. What a genocide, what coppers, the president will stand in the way of demonizing the Serbian people.
All in all, reduce local elections to elections "for" and "against" Vučić, who is a "guarantor of stability, honesty and patriotism". Yes, there are local rascals and pro-consecutives who rule in the name of progressives, but as soon as the president hears about it, they get angry. These are "mangupis in his ranks".
photo: milica vucković / fonet...and support for Vučić
And now, the behavior of the opposition in the past few months fits perfectly into that strategy. It is irrelevant whether she could have performed differently within the existing framework that was set for her. We wrote about this in previous issues of "Vremena". It suits the authorities perfectly that the opposition boycotts the Belgrade elections and participates in them. It is clear that the boycott will not produce a strong reaction from the international community, especially since the new composition of the European Parliament is waiting, in the USA there are elections that can change the world, not to mention Russia, Ukraine, Israel and Palestine. The progressives will coolly win the elections and will not get overly excited about not having an opposition in the city parliament, even if the turnout is extremely low. Eventually, they will be able to fake turnout levels, especially if there is no active opposition control. Other stunts go without saying.
It also suits them that, after several months of confusion, the opposition these days - for example, after the meeting with Ana Brnabić on Wednesday - decides to take part in the June elections or to postpone the local elections. They have little time for a more serious campaign, the damage has already been done, many opposition-minded citizens will not have too much motivation to go to the elections. The defeat of the opposition in the Belgrade elections would lead to another, already famous, disappointment of the opponents of the regime, which would certainly affect the results of the other local elections, again regardless of when they were held. The regime is clearly going to buy time, which has long been commonplace.
The only thing that can possibly mess up the regime's calculations at least a little is if the citizens are irritated enough by the progressive arrogance and express their anger either by going to the polls en masse or, eventually, by mass protests. It is unclear what drives them, and it is difficult to judge whether this may happen soon. Although, what if there are mass protests? What then, given that the government is resistant to them...
EXPERT BRNABIĆ
Since she has been living in the public space, former Prime Minister Brnabić has not offered the citizens a single proof that she is an expert on anything except humiliating humility towards the "boss", hollow talk and endless commission and working group sessions that do not bring any positive developments. On the contrary. This was probably also the reason why she was appointed to the position of mistress of the parliament and that she, as it were, takes care of the implementation of ODIHR's recommendations for "improving the electoral process". There she is on her turf. She is the Messiah of endless and pointless round tables and consultations.
We already wrote about it, but let's repeat it. During her tenure as Prime Minister, Ana Brnabić established countless working groups and commissions that were supposed to solve "structural" problems, in cooperation with the civil sector and under the watchful eye of international organizations. In the media sphere, even those who seriously follow the processes would not be able to understand what all the commissions and working groups existed or still exist, whose goal was to raise the level of media freedom, change laws, improve the safety of journalists...
Enormous money and enormous energy were spent, and the results are - a never-worse media scene in every respect, therefore, not only when it comes to political propaganda. This is how things are in other areas, including "creating conditions for fair and free elections". We saw the results of those "efforts" in December. Ana Brnabić always played the naive maid, acting as if the "structural" problems were the product of the configuration of the heavenly bodies, and not the result of a carefully planned joint criminal enterprise of the regime.
On Sunday, she responds to the demands of the opposition and says that she has accepted all but one of them. She says that there is no chance that the Belgrade elections will be postponed despite her best wishes because it is unconstitutional. At the same time, he says that it is possible to discuss the postponement of other local elections in the fall. Isn't that already unconstitutional?
In fact, her answer is undisguised deception: she did not agree to fulfill the demands, but actually agreed to discuss them, in order to see how best to perfect them. This means a long process with very predictable, or no, results. If the opposition and the civil sector agree to participate, for example, in the commissions announced by Ana Brnabić (for amendments to the relevant laws in accordance with the recommendations of the ODIHR, as well as for inspection, revision and control of the Unified Voters' List), we can already we have an inkling that some of the opposition and civilian members of these commissions will leave their work due to inefficiency and procrastination. But even if, say, the laws are changed according to the ODIHR's recommendations, and in accordance with their latest requirements, who guarantees that the laws will be respected in a lawless country? Take media laws as an example again, but not only them. The government is playing cat and mouse, the opposition is helpless, and it is difficult to expect that the international pressure will be so great that the government will give up its electoral preferences, except for cosmetic changes. We hope we are wrong.
WHAT TO DO?
The diagnoses were all established a long time ago and we didn't really say anything new. The answer to the question of what the opposition should do in these circumstances is billions of euros, and those billions that the government will borrow in the coming years for the sake of staying in power, the semblance of economic development and a normal life. That question, at the same time, is not only a question that should be asked of the opposition, but also of other non-regime social actors, of course, all of us.
By all accounts, it is the opposition's fault that it unnecessarily got involved in the story of the boycott. Almost all well-intentioned and neutral connoisseurs of the political situation point to this, regardless of the fact that the boycott is in principle - again, everyone agrees in principle - a legitimate attitude towards the disastrous election conditions. In an interview for "Vreme", political consultant Dušan Lj. Milenkovic says:
"Even before these last negotiations, I thought that the opposition should participate in the Belgrade elections, and only because it has nothing to lose." The worst that can happen is that the SNS steals the elections again, that is, there is no other way for the SNS to win Belgrade other than to steal the elections. On the other hand, by going to the elections, they leave themselves the possibility for the best possible outcome for them, which is the formation of the government and the fall of the SNS in Belgrade", he says.
Basically, in life and in politics, it is stupid to shoot with an empty gun.
ERROR ACKNOWLEDGED?
It seems that part of the opposition realized that the boycott-confusion was a mistake. From some local self-governments, such as Novi Sad, there is news that seems to mean that the opposition will certainly participate in other local elections, whenever they are held. The worst of all is if the decision to boycott means the end of the hard-won opposition unity, which should be preserved and strengthened in breadth and depth.
Then the question - whether to participate in Ana Brnabić's commission-working group circus, which formally aims to implement ODIHR's recommendations? There is no simple answer here either.
At least at this moment, it is clear that the results will be far from satisfactory, that enormous energy will be used senselessly, and that a part of the voters will not look favorably on these "negotiations", perceiving them even as a kind of collaboration. On the other hand, if one does not participate, one misses the opportunity to at least do something, get some information and, announced by the opposition, to exert institutional pressure on the government, in addition to extra-institutional pressure. It is also certain that the part of the international community that supports the democratization of the country will not look favorably on the refusal of the opposition and civil society to participate in the process.
Finally, let's end with optimism. Time, it seems, is not on Vučić's side.
