Financial expert Miloš Starović was born in Sarajevo. He grew up in Belgrade, completed his bachelor's and master's studies economy in Italy and a doctorate in Switzerland. Since 2008, he has been working for leading investment banks, in management positions in the international finance sector, with expertise in developing markets. He wrote a book End of an era, in which he looks back on life and work in Moscow, London and Paris. Starović's specific position allowed him a special perspective - an insight into the functioning of complex systems, but also into prejudices from several sides.
"For the past two years, I have been teaching the subject of international finance at the Luxembourg School of Business, as well as at the University of Nice," says Starović for "Vreme". For example, one of the subjects was "The Impact of International Finance on Global Affairs". Through this experience, I realized how challenging it is to teach finance without practical experience. Let's just look at all the tectonic events that took place in less than a quarter of a century: from the global financial crisis in 2008, the crisis in the Eurozone in 2010, the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Brexit in 2016, the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 and the invasion of Ukraine from February 2022. I wanted to intertwine all these experiences and bring the reader closer to the complex dynamics of events at the global level in a drinkable language. I was afraid that collections of essays or studies would alienate the work from the reader and be acceptable only to the professional community. Through this format I also wanted to touch on elements of behavioral finance.
"WEATHER" First edition The end of an era it came out two years ago. What has changed the most since then??
MILOS STAROVIĆ: In the past period, the world entered a phase of even more pronounced polarization, while artificial intelligence became the driver of transformations in almost all spheres of life, from economics to geopolitics. Its expansion is exponential, which raises questions not only about technological progress, but also about ethical frameworks and regulation. In parallel, the US administration implemented what they metaphorically called "liberation day" - a protectionist trade policy in which tariffs became the main tool. Such an approach caused chain reactions in global markets leading to uncertainty and redefinition of trade flows. What has not changed, however, is the rigidity of the sanctions regime against Russia. None of the measures have been mitigated, on the contrary - the latest wave of sanctions on Russian oil further exacerbated the situation, forcing even countries that have not formally imposed sanctions, such as India, to start respecting them out of concern for their own relations with the United States.
You write that the scale of the sanctions against Russia can only be compared with the sanctions against Cuba, Iran and Venezuela. Will Russia remain isolated forever??
It is interesting that, despite the geopolitical tensions, the Russian language remains extremely in demand in the security sector, as recently pointed out by the former director of the British intelligence service. The reason is obvious – understanding the language means understanding the narratives, strategies and information that shape the global security architecture. However, its use in a business context is almost completely frozen, similar to the frozen reserves or assets of institutions that are on international sanctions lists.
How do you interpret OFAC's extension of NIS's license?-at 23:00. January and speculation that MOL could become a buyer of this company?
Since the annexation of Crimea in March 2014 until today, sanctions have become almost a separate discipline, the effects of which must be thoroughly analyzed in any international agreement. The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has the authority to impose and enforce economic sanctions, freeze the assets of individuals, firms or countries, and control transactions with sanctioned persons. It is enough to have a dollar account and it automatically comes under the jurisdiction of OFAC. Experienced technocrats work in that institution, and the process for seeking exemptions is clearly defined, regardless of whether it is the administration of President Biden or Trump. The granting of the waiver signals that progress has been made toward the goal outlined in the January 2025 wave of sanctions — the complete elimination of Russian ownership. This was one of the strongest waves of sanctions against the Russian energy sector since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, probably not the last, which even included companies from Turkey, even though it is a NATO member.
It is crucial that a solution to the NIS is reached in the first quarter of 2026, especially given the broader geopolitical context. The beginning of 2026 has already been marked by geopolitical upheavals in Iran and Venezuela. Both countries are oil powers and members of OPEC, but are restricted in the free sale of oil due to OFAC sanctions. Geopolitical tensions with such countries have a significant impact on the prices of oil and raw materials, so there is a real risk that third countries will bear the consequences. When it comes to MOL, it is a company listed on the stock exchanges in the European Union (Budapest and Warsaw) which, although it has strategic importance for Hungary, is not state-owned. Its ownership structure consists of international investors, financial institutions, foundations, as well as employees.
In the book you maintain a somewhat critical tone towards the measure known as Wall Street bailout and according to politics "privatize gains and nationalize losses" which marked the actions of governments around the world during and after the 2008 global economic crisis. years. To what extent is the inadequate response to that crisis the cause of the growth of inequality that we continue to witness?
Through the periods described in the book, it is clear that the global picture of the world has changed dramatically in the last twenty years. The response to the 2008 crisis was reflected in an aggressive monetary policy that led to negative interest rates with effects still visible today. This response had a positive effect on the stabilization of financial markets, but it disproportionately spread inequality. The lack of structural balance is best described in the saying "Wall Street recovered, Main Street did not", which in a free version of the translation could sound: While Wall Street recovered, Main Street did not.
You write that relatively few people from Serbia worked and lived in Russia, and that here the attitude towards her is often based on an imagined image instead of empirical reality. Has the arrival of Russian emigrants in Serbia changed that picture??
Ruined Serbia after the First World War received a large number of Russian emigrants — according to available estimates, about 50.000 people in the territory of the then Kingdom of SHS. Their qualitative influence far exceeded their number. The structure of that wave of immigration led to a strong strengthening of the University of Belgrade, primarily thanks to the influx of professors of mathematics, physics, medicine and engineering, including architects, as well as artists. In this sense, academic and cultural institutions achieved a kind of quantum leap in quality, especially considering the historical and economic context of the time.
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, we are witnessing a phenomenon that can be described as a paraphrase of Balasevic's chanson — "some new kids." This time it is mostly about experts in the field of information technologies. Let's imagine an IT engineer from Yekaterinburg, a city that is about as far from Moscow as Madrid is from Belgrade, and who cannot pay for his work in foreign currency because Russia is excluded from the SWIFT system. Such geographical parallels help to illustrate how the position of a small country in our area can be an advantage if it is strategically linked to the European dimension. For an IT engineer, life in the Russian capital is not a goal in itself if it is cut off from international financial flows and markets. However, the key question is to what extent is it necessary for such profiles to live in the capital of Serbia or — bearing in mind the nature of the job and less attachment to physical location — they can also function from other cities and municipalities across the country. If such a pattern of immigration really developed within Serbia, it could have a positive medium-term effect on the development of peripheral areas, which would represent a significant shift in relation to the pronounced centralization in Belgrade, especially visible during the last two decades. In this sense, migration flows resulting from global disturbances can, with appropriate support, become a development opportunity.
......
In the book, you take the position that it would be strategically smarter if Europe officially organized visa programs for Russian scientists and artists who are against the war in Ukraine...
It is especially important to consider how the current situation will affect artists and cultural creators. Will they, faced with prohibitions and restrictions, develop antagonism towards European ideas and spaces? History teaches us that frustration often breeds resistance - and we, despite our European orientation, felt resentment when we were embargoed in the 1990s, along with all the internal problems that pressed us.
You single out artificial intelligence as a possible reason for the next big shake-up in the job market, consistent with the opinion that VI is a double-edged sword, which can both put millions of people out of work and drastically increase productivity. Yet, more and more reports observe that the capabilities of artificial intelligence are overestimated and warn of the risk of speculative euphoria, as in the case of the recently agreed strategic partnership NVIDIA - OpenAI. Do you see the similarities of the current state with the case dot-com bubble in the period of 1995-2000?
Artificial intelligence may represent an "inflated bubble", but throughout the history of financial markets, not all bubbles have ended with negative effects. For example, the infrastructure bubble took off in Britain and the US in the mid-nineteenth century, leaving behind a vast infrastructure. Also, the Internet bubble you mention wiped out multibillionaire companies that had low revenues and high valuations, but it still resulted in the creation of a pillar for fiber-optic networks, wider use of the Internet, and the like. When I started working, currencies were converted in the markets over the phone and by manual entry. The most important thing was the speed of execution due to the market movement from the beginning until the settlement of the transaction, as well as the trust of the client. Today, currency operations are performed by technological machinery and such jobs have been modified. Exponential technological advances have emphasized the very fine line between surviving in the workplace versus outliving the workplace. The evolution of technological progress has crystallized the necessity of commitment to the creation of additional value.
Therefore, you are convinced that the positive aspects of artificial intelligence outweigh the negative ones, even when we consider the harmful consequences for the ecology, education, labor market and copyright?
Artificial intelligence today shows enormous potential, especially in medicine and technological development. When the positive aspects begin to produce measurable results - faster research, more accurate diagnostics, personalized therapy - the added value will outweigh all the negative sides. It is crucial that ethical and regulatory frameworks accompany this progress.
Banking is a great example of an industry that has transformed. It is no longer just a financial industry, but also a technology industry. Today, people rarely go to the bank to make transactions - everything is done online. The next step is even greater automation through artificial intelligence, but advisory services and a structured approach to complex situations remain indispensable. This is precisely where the human factor and differentiation lies. The same is expected of other traditional branches - reformulation of business models, digitization of processes, but not the disappearance of the industry. They will survive through adding value: expertise, analysis and a personalized approach. The world is changing, but the need for knowledge and trust remain.
How do you see 2026?. from an economic aspect?
Entering the year 2026, there is a risk of opening new geopolitical hotspots, primarily in Latin America and Iran. Such a development may divert the attention of the great powers to these regions, at the expense of the war between Ukraine and Russia, with the danger that the conflict will be further prolonged and take on even more tragic proportions. An illustrative and symbolic signal comes from public discourse: the front page of the first edition of "The Economist" for 2026 shows a white grocery bag with a sad smiley face drawn on it, with a headline indicating anxiety over unaffordable prices. The issue of affordability is becoming a central topic in developed economies as well, with a real risk that populist measures — such as the tariffs announced in April 2025 — will further disrupt the functioning of the market and worsen the situation in the long term.
When it comes to the state of the world economy, the effects of the last four years resulted in a "reset" of interest rates for the medium term. At the same time, entering the year 2026 further exposes the extent to which the economic growth of the United States of America depends on the technological sector. According to publicly available data, since ChatGPT's launch in the last quarter of 2022, the market value of the Standard & Poor's 500 index — which includes the 500 largest U.S. companies — has risen from about 142 percent to approximately 214 percent of U.S. GDP, with tech stocks more than doubling in value on average.
Gareth Campbell, a professor at Queen's University Belfast, draws parallels between the current boom in technology and artificial intelligence and similar phenomena in the past. As an example, he cites the railway mania in the middle of the 19th century, when investments in railways reached about six percent of the GDP of the then British Empire. Within just five years, the shares of companies from that sector fell to a third of their value, but the infrastructure they left behind had a lasting and transformative impact on the development of humanity.
In this context, the year 2026 is increasingly described as the year of drones and investments in security, especially in the cyber domain. Miguel de Bruyker, director of the Center for Cyber Security in Belgium, pointed out at the very beginning of the year that the European Union must collectively provide its own digital infrastructure in order to compete with the US. In general, the tendency is for the EU to gradually move from the phase of green idealism to the phase of industrial realism.
In the regional context, it would be desirable to see the stabilization of Bosnia and Herzegovina and fuller inclusion of the Republika Srpska entity in international flows. There is often a pronounced discrepancy between the narrative intended for the domestic audience and the actually adopted legal solutions in the process of European integration, which is why it is crucial to harmonize rhetoric with practice. In the era of artificial intelligence and full availability of information, spoken messages cannot be isolated from the wider context, and in societies with a fragile historical heritage, statements designed for internal use can have serious and long-term negative consequences when reflected on the global stage.
What does membership in the European Union bring?
In the seventies of the 20th century, the key countries of the then European Community made a strategic decision to jointly create Airbus, in order to have their own "race horse" against the dominant American giant Boeing. Five decades later, achieving such a degree of strategic coordination seems considerably more demanding. Nevertheless, a certain dose of optimism is provided by the new strategic document of the European Union, known as the "Competitiveness Compass", which defines the steps necessary for the Union to preserve and improve its position in relation to the United States of America and China. Priorities established for the period 2024–2029. they include the reduction of administrative barriers, a stronger stimulation of innovation — especially in the field of artificial intelligence — a more flexible approach to the labor market and tax policy, as well as ensuring access to clean energy and sustainable mobility across the Union. These elements are not listed by chance: the European Union has a historic opportunity to repeat the strategic success that Airbus once had in today's conditions.
In this context, Montenegro also has a historic chance to use the momentum achieved since 2020. The country's reputation has gone through a significant rebranding compared to the period in which it was characterized by the negative connotation of the offshore zone. Almost all the remaining candidate countries are today institutionally and economically more prepared than Romania and Bulgaria were before the 2007 enlargement. Despite frequent criticism of the European Union — on account of bureaucracy, slow decision-making, or occasional lack of unity — there is currently no relevant empirical data to suggest that membership in the Union produces negative economic outcomes in the long term.
On the contrary, the experiences of the new members say the opposite. The gross domestic product of Poland, once a relatively small Eastern European economy, grew by almost 50 percent after joining the European Union. The Czech Republic, Slovenia and the Baltic countries have reached or come very close to the average level of development of the Union. These examples are particularly significant for countries like Montenegro, which have to work on diversifying their economy. During the height of the covid 19 pandemic, Montenegro recorded the largest GDP contraction in the region, of around 15 percent, precisely because of its strong dependence on tourism and the service sector. Such asymmetric shocks are repaired far more quickly and efficiently when the country is part of a larger economic and institutional bloc. Demographic trends are also encouraging: although the Baltic countries recorded strong emigration after 2004, the period after 2015 is characterized by the return of highly educated personnel. Also, in the early 2000s, Poland changed from a country of net emigration to a country of net immigration, which is a strong signal of the return of brains that contribute to long-term economic and social recovery.
Great Britain represents the diametrically opposite example. After leaving the European Union, its GDP is lower than that of the member countries by more than four percent, which is illustratively equivalent to erasing an entire decade of economic growth. In the last five years, around half a million British citizens have left the country. According to the survey conducted at the beginning of December 2025, 52 percent of the respondents believe that leaving the EU was a wrong decision, 32 percent that it was justified, while 16 percent remained reserved. Therefore, when looking at all the available data, it is difficult to find an example of a country that has experienced long-term economic decline due to membership in the European Union. Weaker results in the long run are observed precisely in countries that do not belong to the Union — or have left it.
Big holiday discount on "Vreme" - subscriptions 25 percent cheaper until mid-January. Give it away subscription to yourself or to someone else, read what matters.
