The events "thickened up" in the previous two weeks, and it seems that they will continue to be so until the end of May. Although the government reacted to the unprecedented tragedies of mass murders like any other "usual" affair from the previous 11 years, it seems that the situation in society is not the same as it was every previous time.
It is not only about protests - there were also in previous years, nor about various demands (such as the removal of REM members, cancellation of reality shows and shows that broadcast violence and aggression from national frequencies, taking away the frequencies of Pink and Happy televisions, banning tabloids that propagate violence and widespread fake news) - as if this time things have moved so much that the usual activities of the authorities against the dissatisfaction of the society will not be enough.
Because we have already seen that Vučić organizes "protests" against the opposition, such as the 2019 rally, which was also marked as the largest rally in the history of Serbia, and the one scheduled for May 26 will be like that. However, the impression is that the same tactic does not hold water now.
"I think things are different now than before on many levels. First, the occasion itself is something that struck a chord with us all. The children and people in "Ribnikar" and Mladenovac are something that we all started to think about, it is something that everyone knows, unlike some other, earlier affairs", said in an interview for "Vreme", Dr. Dušan Spasojević, associate professor at Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade.
"WEATHER" Tea 2019. violence was also a reason, only towards the opposition.
DUŠAN SPASOJEVIĆ: Yes, but it was violence against one man from the opposition. This is the topic that drew us all into that story and then people's reaction is wider. Therefore, the base of people who come to the protests and feel some kind of reaction is wider, and that's why these protests, even if they are not the largest, are the widest and deepest in terms of the diversity of people. Second, after 10-11 years in power, there are negative consequences and discontent that is actually just waiting for an opportunity to manifest itself. Here it manifested itself in a very concrete way and we saw the synergy between citizens and political actors, which passed the test in the first steps. The third thing is what we have seen from the government's reaction, which is that all the reactions have been wrong, with the exception of the story about returning the weapons, which has some effects. Everything else they said, what they announced they would do, was wrong and just added fuel to the fire.
Wrong for the government?
Wrong for society and for the government.
In earlier cases, the way "ironing" the situation was the same as it is now: Aleksandar Vučić appears on television several days in a row, he talks about everything and anything and then talks about what he said, not what happened. He did it again now..
We saw that when there was the Ohrid Agreement - he held rallies even then, that was his answer. And now he also tried to bury everything, to relativize the matter somewhat by saying that these things are also happening in other countries, then to push some things into the institutions - "here, we will discuss in the parliament, we will form commissions"... He uses a whole series of mechanisms that are at his disposal and it is possible that in the medium term he will succeed in pacifying the protest, but for now he is not succeeding. Now we are in the phase of growth and escalation, and it seems to me that this will last at least until the end of the month, that is, until this big rally that has been announced. There is also the broadest context, which is that the government is already under great pressure from the outside and is somewhat more vulnerable than usual. Vučić always deals with many things, but now his room for maneuver has narrowed and it seems that the nervousness is a little more visible.
If you say that everything they did was wrong, and then you say that in the medium term it might give results - which was not wrong then?
It is wrong in terms of what they were doing. For example, Ružić's press conference or Ana Brnabić's tweet only drew people to the protest. Here we come to the second story, which is - what are the scope of the protest? There are two levels through which the protest can be viewed. One is a protest in itself, in the sense of articulating dissatisfaction and building something that can later result in elections - the emergence of a movement or a change in values in society. That level will exist on its own. The second level is specific requirements that have their own dynamics. Vučić, more or less, reacts to this type of concrete demands, institutionalizes them, gives them some form, but affects this dissatisfaction to a lesser extent. If people were really interested in solving that problem, if on a hypothetical Friday we would have 200.000 people all over Serbia, that's something he doesn't have an answer to, it's that kind of quantity that brings change.
Protests introduce uncertainty because they take politics out of the usual "government against the opposition" and introduce citizens to the whole story. This creates a new dynamic that is very difficult to control and predict how it will develop. If there are tens of thousands of people ready to walk and press in the coming weeks, that is something no one can control. This is an advantage of non-institutional politics, but it is very difficult to predict the scope because it is something that is outside of all forms and rules. The collapse of the regime can happen in two weeks, and it can also happen that the citizens say: "We are bored with this and it does not lead to anything, let's go home".
14 - 02...
,
are they enforceable?
Part of the request is unfortunately worded: the request related to the media ban, for example. There are measures available to REM, or public funding could be directed against whether the media is in breach of the code. However, the demands hit a key problem, which is complicated, so it would be unfair to say that the demands are poorly formulated entirely, because they hit a problem, and the problem is difficult to solve. And if we had all the power in the world, we couldn't really solve the problem until next Monday, because there are a lot of things that need to be changed.
The media is the core, Vučić's basic tool, and I think he will give everything before giving the media, and therefore REM. But that does not mean that there should be no pressure and wait for an opportunity to open up, before the elections or with some support from the international community. You can't invent anything beyond that and I think REM must always be on the wish list. Part of those demands can be fulfilled, we got one resignation, we won't accept the others, but the reaction of Pink and Happy, who are now changing their reality shows, is interesting. Canceling reality shows would be a blow to those televisions in terms of money and viewership, which would then slightly change the social dynamics, but, of course, it will not solve the entire problem.
Is the technology they used to try to solve this crisis different from the previous ones?
The repertoire used by the government is relatively similar: a mixture of belittling and ignoring. It's no different than what they do in other things. Generally, they have contradictory policies and it is relatively easy to catch them saying one thing on Monday and another on Friday. And here there is no particular difference. The mistake is - and this is what is different here - that when you do not react to the killing of children, then you are perceived as arrogant. We have many ministers who kept quiet about the whole incident and then acted out in very bad ways.
"
We will not politicize”…
That's right. In all other situations, they did what they mean by politicizing the event, and now they hid from it because they realized that something tragic had happened for the whole society. I guess their assessment was that it would pass and there would be no backlash. The argument in favor of that is probably what the government often talks about - that in many situations there is no explicit responsibility. Let's say, the murders at the school are probably the result of an individual act, but in Mladenovac we already have clear elements where the system failed, and that's why I think they insist on this first event.
That Mladenovac seems to be on edge?
Yes, there is a much clearer picture of what the state failed to do.
A protest is scheduled for Friday,
so it's next friday then "
protest"
authorities.
Will there be two rallies on the 26th?.
maja?
I hope not because I don't see what the opposition could gain by holding a rally on the same day as the government. I think they have to make concessions there if that's how it's perceived. The government has everything on its side, it has the resources... It didn't end happily in 1996 either, and it wouldn't end happily now. I think it would be a really tragic scenario in which we would have two rallies in Belgrade on that day and the opposition should do everything to avoid that kind of confrontation, because nothing good can come out of it, neither for society nor for the opposition. There will be too much tension, these gatherings will be impossible to control and I am afraid that the authorities will use this to cause incidents.
The opposition's protest is not strictly tied to a day, time, or place. He has already shown considerable flexibility and in that sense I do not see that he should be tied to that Friday, May 26. In general, if protests grow, they grow because they are adaptable, because they can offer something new and different. The protests of 1996 succeeded because they were highly decentralized, plural, they allowed people to do what suited them at that moment, and yet they spoke with the same voice.
What will happen on May 26 at that government "protest"? Some important measures have been announced that will change Serbia, and everything similar. The next day, May 27, is the SNS Assembly.
I don't expect anything that could change Serbia at any event, for several reasons. First of all, we had several announcements of large and important measures, but we never received anything significant. Second - for 200.000 people to come to that rally or whatever their goal is, it will be a show of muscle, but based on state resources. What would really change the dynamic would be for Vučić to say - here, we have a rally, I invite the citizens of Belgrade and Serbia to come themselves. If they were to come, then we would see that kind of support. In the case of protests, this is an advantage - that people voluntarily come out and say that they are ready to come out, therefore, it is not just a matter of rounding up the elections, but also the additional energy and effort that is invested, this is where you can see that people care. The third thing is the general capacity of SNS for changes, which seems to me to be relatively limited and in the context of the popular movement that is being announced.
If there will be no big things that will change Serbia,
what will happen then?
It seems that the things he will say at the meeting are mostly known,
as well as what will happen at the SNS assembly the next day.
Vucic announced,
for the umpteenth time,
that he will leave the party leadership.
I think his hands are relatively tied. Even if he leaves the head of the party, he will remain the essential man who leads that party - if for no other reason, then because there is no person ready to take his place, nor can one be made in a short time. I think he believes that rallies are the answer, that it is a measure in itself. As it was after the Ohrid Agreement, here too it will be a demonstration of popular support. He cannot respond with some measures or changes, but he can do what he always does - to say "I have 50 percent, I have the majority". If we talk in the context of that new movement, it seems to me that the whole thing is quite unclear, but also that the transformative power is quite limited. He can present some kind of new political entity, but if it is composed of progressives or possibly socialists, if there are the same leaders and the same policy, if there are no new people who would be introduced to politics now, and have such weight...
Dobro,
it used to happen in previous elections that some people appeared on the list,
and then they get out of the whole story,
isn't it?
Yes, there is always that pull in of people like Lazar Ristovski or Aya Jung, people who have a name and surname in some communities, but none of them stayed there long enough. And on the other hand, with the exception of actors and athletes, there are no people who address the entire society. A good example of why I think there is no room for a big change is if we compare this to the emergence of SNS. They then created a new party, they changed the policy in relation to the key topic, which is the attitude towards the EU - which is a symbolically big change - they introduced a new electorate into politics and a lot of new people who also had political importance. Now I don't see any of those 3-4 things that can be done, nor do I see any preparation for it, it's more about some kind of topic that we will deal with, rather than an attempt to repackage something in a marketing way.
Elections have been announced "
until September",
which seem quite illogical because next spring we should already have regular local elections,
so it is assumed that then early parliamentary elections would also be held,
in order to connect.
Will there be those elections by September??
It's a juggling act with multiple elements, which Vucic generally does quite well, but now he has different pressures. One pressure, which is currently out of the focus of the public, is what the international community wants and what are their expectations regarding the implementation of the Ohrid Agreement. If there is pressure to implement some things now, it is very risky to go against their wishes and make choices now. The story about Vučić as the "mastermind" of political tactics and strategy bothers me, because I think that in the first few years he ran over the opposition, took the media, control and regulatory bodies, and at the same time had a honeymoon from the outside - no one touched him for the first few years year. Now we enter the first situation when he has pressure from the outside for something, but there is also pressure from the inside, which is a kind of new reality. This brings us into the field of uncertainty.
Another thing is the merging of the elections - in the spring there are local elections that will be very risky for them, and it would be very good for them to merge the parliamentary elections as well, because the loss of the central Belgrade municipalities would be a serious blow, since they are based on the idea of complete control. Although, rationally speaking, the opposition in Stari Grad or Vračar would not fundamentally change the dynamics. That is why I think it is more likely that the elections will be held in the spring.
14 - 04...
?
That's another argument against the election. Now there is discontent that has been articulated. The closer the election, the greater the chance that this dissatisfaction will affect the outcome of the election. I think we will see that in the coming weeks when, I suspect, the opposition will begin to manage the protests to a greater extent. So far, we have seen the opposition helping the protests, organizing them logistically, but at the first protest there were no speeches, only requests were read, at the second we saw some people who are directly related to the topic.
I suspect that the opposition will be more and more visible in the coming weeks and that will give us an answer to the question of whether all the citizens who come actually agree to be represented and spoken on their behalf by the opposition parties. Then we will be able to fully measure the impact of all this on politics. That's the problem with protests - they can end in a week or two, and they can drag on until the fall, and even, under some specific conditions, until the spring elections.
Do you have any information about the results of the public opinion poll?
Were those mistakes in the government's reactions caused by a drop in ratings or this government simply cannot react differently?
I have seen a few studies and it seems to me that nothing fundamental has changed. The right has grown a little, but it is a matter of a few percentage points in total. We do not see any significant decline in SNS. The research being done now will give us some indication of how people read all these events. Broadly speaking, it seems to me that the majority of people understand these as opposition protests. When it comes to mistakes in the government's reaction, I think it is due to their ignorance, but also to the fact that they are used to not being challenged by anyone, that they do not have a system of accountability, that they do not have the opposition, civil society, media that would, as in a democracy, , forced them to be in such situations every day. And then when they find themselves in that situation, they score own goals - for example, at the first conference, Ružić talks about the attack on a child that happened in an acting school, thus renouncing the responsibility of the ministry, and tells a story about Western values, which then automatically generates activism in one part of society.
This can also be seen in the rare situations when Vučić lets journalists ask him questions - you can see how uncomfortable the government is in that situation. Since they are dominant, they managed to create a ban for themselves, in which no one enters and in which no one challenges them. And when they find themselves in such a situation, they either argue and don't listen to the interlocutor, like in those pre-election shows, or they make mistakes in their steps.
