When in the non-progressive future of Serbia, if such a future is foreseen at all, a multi-volume encyclopedia of the reign of Aleksandar Vučić will be printed, in which the countless and all kinds of inactions that he personifies will be clarified and selected - a large and important segment will be devoted to working groups and commissions. There is no doubt. The famous "if you don't want to do anything, form a commission" progressives updated it into a version "if you want to do the opposite, you come up with strategies, form working groups and commissions, adopt laws and continue to work as you intended".
photo: amir hamzagić / radar...
There are many examples. For example, since 2012, various media working groups and strategic commissions have been working in three shifts, a ton of documents are produced annually, all under the auspices of international organizations, and the situation is never worse. The regime's newspapers, editors and journalists, who make up about 95 percent of the media scene, lost all their functions except mercenary: apart from carrying the president's picture in their wallets, they almost started firing howitzers at Vučić's opponents for state money. If this happens soon, there are minimal chances that it will adequately respond, which is due to the continuous reforms of the judiciary, even the constitutional ones, which, with an international pat on the back, made this branch of government a Vučić brush for cleaning the toilet bowl. In fact, there is no area where a similar process has not taken place and is taking place, and it is really strange that there is anyone who after 12 years believes that something in this matter and in this way can fundamentally change.
HYPOCORISTIC FOR ORGANIZED ELECTION CRIME
This is how things are with election irregularities, as the pleonasm for organized election crime reads. Working group and commission reforms of the electoral process started in this area, quite unjustifiably and very late, even though it was clear to everyone who was at all informed and concerned, i.e. who were not paid that it did not concern them, that not a single progressive election , from some local emergency in 2013 to today, were not even f of fair. It is not surprising, because the opposition was razed to the ground or collaborated for many years, so there was no one to protest, and the citizens were mostly hypnotized by the matchmaking of the government and its propaganda. However, when you look at it all from today's point of view, there is something positive. No matter how tragic it sounds that twelve years ago Serbia lost the opportunity to democratically change the government, it is so good to know that the progressive team never actually had as much support from the citizens as the election results showed. So, everything is not so black and the people here are not as stupid as some people like to claim. But these are pampering.
photos: a. barda / phonetAMONG THE RULING MAJORITY: A. Brnabić (SNS),...
The first working group for improving electoral conditions was formed in 2019, and then there were various initiatives and negotiations, some under the auspices of European institutions, some "patriotic" - between the authorities and the right-wing opposition. The unfortunate Ana Brnabić is the informal head of the one-party and mysterious so-called Working groups for cooperation with the Organization for European Security and Cooperation and the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights in coordinating and monitoring the implementation of recommendations for the improvement of the electoral process, which was formed in March last year. ODIHR made suggestions, the government took note of them, and then we witnessed the monumental election theft in December of last year, which took place in front of the public. The working group has recently renewed its work according to the well-known principle - the ever-hungry goats meet to agree on how to protect the cabbage plantations.
The opposition demands to be included in the processes that, through the fulfillment of ODIHR's recommendations, will ensure the so-called minimum election requirements. They say that non-governmental organizations should be involved in the process. The authorities are mumbling on this matter for now. But even if he agrees to it, it is difficult to expect any quality developments. Despite the stronger, albeit not very determined, pressure of the international community, that is, the EU. Realistically, we can imagine the craziest scenarios when it comes to the progressives - let's say they move the entire country to the Caucasus region, but not agree to something that could threaten their sovereignty. Namely, progressive activists by election campaign mean exclusively criminal or semi-criminal activities and media smearing of opponents. That's how they were taught. They don't know anything else.
photo: a. barda / fonet…B. Nestorović (MI)…
OPPOSITION CONFUSION
When criticizing the opposition, it is always fair to emphasize at the beginning that it is working in very unfavorable circumstances and that it is fighting an incomparably stronger opponent with few resources. You can't really criticize the game of a chess player who has eight less pieces at the beginning, and even black ones. She is often faced with the dark dilemma: if you take it, you will regret it, if you don't take it, you will regret it again. Certainly, however, there is no justification for the fact that it is often more focused on mutual aggrandizement than the change of government, i.e. the fact that some - specifically - perceive the demands of citizens and part of the public for a united opposition performance as an opportunity to paternalistically impose their will on others.
The decision whether to go to the local elections or to boycott them is up to Tamovilajet. Both are actually wrong and right at the same time. There is no doubt that the demands of the group gathered around ProGlas are justified. It is clear that it would be politically insane to participate in the upcoming Belgrade and other local elections under unchanged circumstances. This would de facto legitimize election theft, and the question is whether the citizens would have the will to participate in significant numbers in that circus, a battle already lost. Opposition voters are sophisticated and demanding.
photo: a. barda / fonet…and I. Dačić (SPS)
On the other hand, we have seen that the boycott in 2020 did not really bring great effects. The West was not overly excited, and neither were the citizens. Admittedly, it was a sort of purgatory within the opposition. At least to some extent. After that, the boycott implies a serious and comprehensive strategy, which again implies what will be done before the election, on the day of the election, and after it. But it seems that there is no such strategy at the moment, at least not elaborated. As it was not in 2020 either. And the question is how many citizens, in what number, will be inspired to participate in boycott-actions against this depressing high cost.
But it is certainly the worst of all that there is an argument within the opposition on this issue. As far as can be seen, there are also parties that are not in favor of a boycott even if the election conditions do not change, but for now they are not allowed to say so publicly. And the division does not have to be only between parties, it can also happen along intra-party lines and create additional confusion among citizens. Why, for example, should the people of Kragujevac have the right to have opposition representatives in the city parliament, while the people of Nišlije do not? And both election rounds were irregular. Whether the boycott strategy in that case would entail the departure of MPs and councilors from the parliaments they entered in the December elections is a question to which we do not have an answer for now. Like what will happen after election day...
Milorad Đurić, a political scientist, draws our attention, however, to the fact that it is ungrateful to expect political actors to talk about operational and tactical moves in a political situation such as this one.
"It's like if you told your opponent in advance about the moves you're going to make in a chess game," says Đurić. That's why we didn't put too much pressure on the interlocutors from the opposition to tell us about specific actions.
WHAT ARE THE ELEMENTARY ELECTION CONDITIONS?
Miloš Jovanović, the president of the New Democratic Party of Serbia, in an interview with "Vreme", points out that the opposition expects to talk with the authorities, that is, to work together to create basic election conditions. Whether the government rejects the talks, or whether they are not effective, Jovanović believes that they should be actively boycotted. He says that it is difficult for progressives to expect really fair and honest elections, because the financial power of both is incomparable, as is the media representation. He believes that it is impossible to expect, for example, regime televisions such as Pink, Prva, Happy and B92 to change their editorial policy, but that RTS could perhaps undertake to quantitatively ensure equality between the parties in power and the opposition. Under elementary conditions, Jovanović also means the cessation of the abuse of the right to residence, that is, the arrangement of the voter list.
"It seems unlikely that the government will agree to minimal, elementary conditions." Judging by the scenes from Mala Krsna and the many reports that come to us beyond the cameras, the practice of abusing the right to residence still continues. The progressives clearly have no intention of handing over power to the opposition anywhere. So, a very possible scenario is that nothing changes at all. In that case, we must not agree to these elections and must do everything to prevent them from happening", says Jovanović.
When asked what he means by the fact that the opposition will do everything to prevent elections from happening, Jovanović answers that both the opposition and the citizens have the right to prevent the holding of elections that are unfair and meaningless. He does not reveal the details, we do not insist, but he says that it will be acts of civil disobedience and civil resistance.
"Therefore, it is not a question of the struggle of the opposition, but of all citizens. We must all together show enough maturity and determination to prevent us from being ruled by those who do not have a majority, because if they did, they would not steal the elections. Of course, a lot will depend on the maturity and determination of the opposition, but above all on the citizens' awareness of how bad the situation is. "If we don't do something, we will surely slip into some kind of light dictatorship", he says.
Jovanović points out that, if there is a boycott, a comprehensive strategy is necessary, of which the boycott will be only one point. As for him and his party, it can be very broad, a variety of things can be put on the table for the sake of "delegitimizing the government, which is collapsing the rule of law at every step." He does not rule out the possibility that this strategy will also include the departure of opposition MPs and councilors from the republican, provincial and local parliaments elected in the December elections.
However, he says that in the part of the pro-European opposition, there is skepticism towards the boycott as a quality and effective way of fighting, because they "got burned in 2020". According to him, it was not a good time for a boycott, and the time showed that. And now it is.
Srđan Milivojević from the Democratic Party also believes that the boycott must be a joint decision of all actors within the opposition and that it must be strategically thought out. In his opinion, he has to be active, to include a call to the citizens not to go to the elections, but also to thwart the elections in some way, that is, to make them impossible. He also did not want to talk about the details of the active boycott on election day, because he says that every detail and every thought that someone from the opposition puts forward will be misused by the "mafia regime of Aleksandar Vučić".
PRESSURE FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
In a sea of failures, the opposition achieved one great victory - after the resolution of the European Parliament, all veils fell and the character of the Vučić regime in the democratic world was completely exposed. But the ordinary citizen who expected miracles after the resolution is now a little depressed. And it really seems that the resolute position of the EP is not followed by other international institutions, nor is it very strongly manifested in bilateral relations. But maybe it takes time. Generally, the opposition still has a lot of work to do on the international front, and to trust that foreign pressure will lead to serious changes by June is not realistic enough. Just as it is questionable whether the Vučić regime will make concessions, even if the pressure coming from that side of the world is incomparably greater.
The progressives successfully trade with some influential people of the democratic world, and at the same time they are satisfied with the disastrous political situation in all parts of the world. They don't have to, at least not yet, create big crises and riots, others do it for them. Some Western circles have long understood how the Vučić regime works: the more it loses legitimacy, the more concessions it makes, on the political or economic level. Of course, on the condition that their power is not touched. And there is now a kind of game that is difficult to follow.
Srđan Milivojević says that, because of all this, citizens must not allow themselves to be depressed. "They should be aware that this is our job. We cannot expect someone from the West to come and solve our problems. Before all of us, the choice is easy. Either we will suffer living in a mafia state or we will rebel. No one should hide behind the West or this or that political actor. It's up to everyone to say: I agree or disagree that this regime is humiliating me and that the country is disappearing before our eyes," says Milivojević.
Joavnović, in accordance with the principles of his party, says that he does not expect anything from international or Western pressure when it comes to the election conditions in Serbia. He thinks that it is not good to even address them. You should, as he says, "wash your own dirty laundry".
"People from the West have a different kind of geopolitical and economic interests here. I think that Vučić can satisfy them as much as possible with business projects, which through Kosovo's politics, which has experienced a complete breakdown and is absolutely in the hands of the Western powers. Vučić still has their support and funds with which he will continue to buy it. Second, the true democratic maturation of our people is necessary, and it cannot be imposed from the outside, it is a matter of the internal strength of a society. Everything that comes from outside is a shortcut that we will pay for at some point. If we don't manage to solve our problems, if the awareness of democracy and normality does not mature here, about what can and cannot be done in a democracy, nobody from the outside will be able to solve it either", believes Jovanović.
HYBRID MODE
Political analyst Dejan Bursać refers to all the dialogues and working groups that have so far dealt with the improvement of election conditions and points out that a hybrid regime is at work in Serbia. This means that the government is ready to put many things on paper, push them through laws and by-laws, but that practice always differs from paper.
"In other words, opposition parties and citizens can never be sure what the elections will look like. SNS and Vučić can commit themselves to all possible concessions in the world, but in the campaign itself and on the day of the election, the practices we are already used to take place. Many of these practices are already prohibited by our laws and by-laws, so they don't mind. I don't know how, in that situation, the opposition can fight for minimum conditions, except to strengthen its own mobilization and organize better control of the election process, at least to prevent some of those practices", says Bursać.
He also claims that the 2020 boycott was a negative experience for both the opposition and citizens.
"I'm not saying that the boycott at that time was a bad idea, but it was poorly implemented. The opposition parties trusted in the international, western factor, which should have been shaken by the fact that there is no opposition in the assemblies. Of course, that didn't happen. International circumstances were misjudged. I'm not sure even now that many people will be very shaken if there is a boycott, especially since local elections are involved. We have an example from Albania. The opposition parties boycotted the local elections: the turnout was very low, Eddie Rama's party won them... And no one batted an eye. There was no effect", says Bursać and adds that in this regard he is not sure that boycotting is a good idea at this moment.
"But it's even worse that three months before the elections you don't even know if you will participate in them, or in what form." It confuses voters. Come out with a clear attitude, no matter what that attitude is. These persecutions confuse voters and send wrong and confused messages," he says.
Political scientist Milorad Đurić is more optimistic. He says that we are witnessing a crucial change in the relationship in the regime-opposition-international community triangle. According to him, with this change, the opposition won the opportunity to confirm or challenge the legitimacy and legality of political processes, including elections, before the international community (the European Union, first of all).
"It is a really big change compared to the previous twelve years. The regime is deeply on the defensive and has only two options - to put itself back 'in the game' by fulfilling the recommendations regarding the election conditions (with the fact that in this way it will probably lose power in Belgrade and some other cities) or to give up on fulfilling the recommendations and, fundamentally, it completely jeopardizes relations with the EU. This would undoubtedly have disastrous consequences for the current government, in the medium and long term. Such a negative outcome would be certain even with calculations regarding Trump's eventual victory in the US presidential elections. All in all, I think it is realistic to expect, regardless of the noisy and angry regime rhetoric, a certain normalization of election conditions", he says.
