Will gasoline be poured into plastic bottles and buckets again? This question arose after the announcement by the President of Serbia that America will impose sanctions on the Serbian Oil Industry due to Russian ownership. What does the government say, and what are the possible scenarios
Selling petrol plastic buckets and bottles were commonplace in the 1992s in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia during the regime of Slobodan Milošević. Namely, in May 13, the United Nations Security Council imposed sanctions on the union of Serbia and Montenegro. It was supported by XNUMX countries of the UN Security Council, including the Russian Federation. Among other things, the import and export of oil was also prohibited at that time.
Will the USA introduce some form of sanctions today, after more than 30 years The oil industry of Serbia? Namely, before packing its bags, the Biden administration sent a message to Belgrade that there is a possibility that NIS will be subject to sanctions as of January 1 due to Russian ownership. The reason is very likely the fact that even after almost three years since the start of the war in Ukraine, Serbia has not imposed sanctions on Russia.
The President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, announced that the sanctions against NIS will enter into force on January 1, 2025, and that they are "probably the most severe sanctions": "This is a geopolitical decision, a major decision, we have never heard that this decision is being prepared Americans, this kind of decision was prepared by the Europeans." Vučić stated that the British will also join the sanctions, and that it is now clear why he insisted on building an oil pipeline to Hungary, but he added that "we have to talk to both the Americans and the Russians".
According to data from the Central Register of Securities, the Russian "Gazprom Neft" has 50 percent ownership in NIS, the Republic of Serbia 29,87 percent, and the Russian "Gazprom" 6,15 percent. The rest belongs to citizens, employees, former employees and other minority shareholders. By the way, the European Union and the USA put "Gazprom Neft" on the black list in 2014, after the Russian annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea.
Regarding the announced sanctions, experts say that this is an ideal opportunity to change ownership in the NIS company. The President of Serbia is not sure that this is possible and that it is unlikely that the Russians would agree to Serbia buying their entire share in NIS from them. According to "Danas", he is worth around 730 million euros; that's a fair price.
HOT POTATOES FOR TRAMP
Energy expert Midorag Kapor tells "Vreme" that in his opinion the announced sanctions have two aspects.
One is the relationship between the current Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration: "They did the same with the permission for Ukraine to target targets inside Russian territory, which was refused for a long time - they left a hot potato for Trump. It will be very difficult for Trump to lift those sanctions because we know that he has close relations with authoritarian regimes, and therefore has the potential for closer cooperation with the authorities in Belgrade than there was between Biden and the authorities in Serbia."
Another aspect, says Kapor, is that they may have primarily punished the government in Serbia: "Of course, a part of the money, which is not small, but is negligible compared to the other revenues of the Russian Federation that finance the war, must have gone to finance the war in Ukraine. However, it is also possible that they punish Russian participation in the propaganda Russian narrative in Serbia and the region. In my opinion, this is an important aspect and the reason for imposing sanctions on the NIS company, because part of its money ends up in spreading misinformation."
WHAT AMBASSADOR HILL SAYS
The Government session was held in the "Serbia" Palace, which was also attended by the President of Serbia. There, he told the ministers and Prime Minister of Serbia, Miloš Vucevic, to form a team for the sanctions announced by the Americans.
"I don't know if it's a reversal and I can't tell the people if things are more important than they are, but I won't underestimate either, so I would like the government to form a team for the sanctions that the Americans will introduce to the NIS," he said. is Vucic.
He added that Serbia cannot afford to run out of oil or waste its reserves and that "Bajatović cannot be left to negotiate alone, but a team should be created for negotiations with Gazprom."
The American ambassador in Belgrade, Christopher Hill, confirmed that he had already had a conversation with the Government of Serbia. "The sanctions that are mentioned, in fact, are not intended to harm the economy of Serbia, nor is that the goal, nor is that expected. We have already had talks with the Government of Serbia and we will continue to talk. It won't happen quickly, but we are talking about how to approach this issue."
He added that the target of the sanctions is Russia, not Serbia, and that they should not harm the Serbian economy and bilateral relations with the USA in any way.
Hill said that there was concern because Russia, since it became the majority owner in 2008, has made very good profits, but has not invested anything in Serbia, and all the profits have gone abroad.
"That became a concern, especially since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, because there was always concern about how the money earned by the NIS would be used," says Hill.
CANS AND PLASTIC BOTTLES?
When asked if there is a possibility of repeating the scenario from the nineties and pouring gasoline into bottles, Kapor says that he does not believe that the authorities, not only in Serbia but also in Moscow, are so irrational: "So, they will allow Serbia to own the company, but under the condition to appoint one of their own people to effectively run that company and continue the 'business'. I assume that this is one of the modalities that the authorities in Belgrade would agree on with the Russian Federation, in order to at least formally satisfy the sanctions that America and Britain would introduce, and then the EU."
However, as our interlocutor says, "a wounded beast is the most dangerous", so there are minimal chances of repeating the scenario from Serbia in the 1990s.
"The people in power today are the same people as they were then," says Kapor. "Today, the Minister of Information is the President of the Republic, the Minister of Police was the regime's spokesperson, so there is a small percentage of chances that they are ready to put Serbia in a situation where oil is actually being poured from the canister."
WHAT WILL HAPPEN? FROM 1. JANUARY?
In response to this question, Kapor states two scenarios - either that the Russians completely withdraw from the ownership structure of NIS or that they do not have a controlling stake.
"In both cases, there is a possibility that Serbia will buy a package of Russian shares at market prices or offer a third party that is not under sanctions to join the ownership structure of NIS itself. Those are two possibilities. The money is not small, but it is far from unavailable, if we bear in mind that Serbia has the money to pay for the National Stadium, and this investment in NIS is of strategic importance, unlike that stadium, so there should be no question of or money, because for such a thing there must be money." The interlocutor of "Vremena" believes that the supply of oil derivatives will continue normally.
In this context, and due to the blockades of faculties and high schools, part of the public believes that the threat of sanctions for NIS is a form of attention diversion. That is, the government's attempt to show how it will "ensure that everything works as before".
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