Progressives in a situation with no favorable way out

Political scientist Dejan Bursać for years he has been critical of the government, but also of the opposition. Now a completely new and authentic actor has appeared on the Serbian political scene - and students. They do not want to take power, but to control it. The most sleepy citizens of Serbia are now motivated by the "moral and ethical revolution" that the progressive government is so afraid of.

"Not only the apolitical ones", explains Bursać, "people who have been getting on SNS buses for years and going to their rallies will also wake up. When they see that their children and grandchildren are walking all over Serbia, they also dare to ask something or complain to the government."

"WEATHER" We are talking the day after the big student protest in Novi Sad. How did you see what was happening there?? Are these really some "plenums celebrated by turning a pig on a spit"?

DEJAN BURSAĆ: The plenums did not celebrate by turning a pig on a spit, but, in terms of communication, they did everything that the opposition failed to do for the previous thirteen years. In translation, they raised the energy of a large part of society, not only in Novi Sad, but also in Niš, Čačak, Kruševac... I am a native of Apatin. It is a small and sleepy place where it is difficult to drive people out of the house, and there were about a thousand people there at the protest. I don't know if there have ever been so many people at a protest in this city. Students show us how to communicate in politics, especially in regimes like this - you need to be honest and clear, to fight for general social and not particular political values, but also to be persistent. And they are extremely persistent. And you should be inclusive. One student told me that one plenum in Novi Sad lasted almost nine hours. That's fantastic. It is a question of who can afford nine hours of discussion under regular circumstances, but it is obvious that they think carefully, and on the other hand, they make sure that every voice is included.

I think this has gone beyond the students as well. We see, not only from Novi Sad, but from that general strike, a wider social change. It is a kind of moral or ethical revolution.

The teachers followed the students, lawyers, cultural worker.... Are these people just swimming on the waves of student protests, but they are actually looking for higher wages and independence or the student struggle is their first priority?

If the students were so exclusive, those protests would not be so massive. Of course, pressure has built up in the society where you closed the institutions. All those demands, whether union or not, were previously dealt with by a combination of ignoring, pressure and a kind of bribery. Then people do not feel that they have solved their problems in the long term. It is legitimate that people who feel some kind of freedom after 13 years have their own demands. It is unfortunate that as a society we have allowed this struggle to fall on the youngest sections of the community, those who have just acquired the right to vote. But obviously the young are proving to be braver and better than the rest of us, so it's up to us to follow. It is up to them to articulate it in the unfortunate situation that we do not have the one who should really be doing it - political parties. It is a very unusual situation. You have a massive decline in the legitimacy of one regime. I am not talking about the rating that Aleksandar Vučić has, although I believe that he is also in decline, but about the trust in him, about the doubts that arise. This can be seen not so much in the numbers, but in some surveys that measure the sentiment of the population.

It can also be seen in this mood - people who used to come to blindly and silently applaud them, now feel encouraged to ask. In Varvarin, Ćićevac - people come out, say what's bothering them, one gentleman complains about the amount of his pension. We couldn't imagine that before. This opens up the situation in society, but our party system has collapsed, so you don't have an alternative political player who could pick up voters from SNS. Whether that actor is the opposition or someone else from the ruling coalition who would feel the opportunity.

What is the opposition supposed to do if the students don't want them??

Students will not want them in the student protest. This does not mean that they are prohibited from acting. A good example is what the opposition did in Novi Sad during the first weeks of this protest. They fought their battle, inside and in front of the institutions. The first protest in Novi Sad, and the biggest until the last one, was organized by the opposition. Between 25.000 and 30.000 people came, which at that moment was the largest political gathering in the history of Novi Sad. There were also blockades of the court, the sessions of the Assembly of Vojvodina and the City Assembly, so it got to the point that Novi Sad ended up on temporary financing, even though it is one of the richest cities in the country. So, the opposition has something to do. But then why don't they work further? The Novi Sad opposition is small and weak, it consists of several organizations with a few activists each. When I talked to some of them, they told me that they have exhausted their capacities, that half of their people are still in detention, home or regular, that they are financially drained.

They cannot fight from Novi Sad, but there are headquarters of our opposition parties where there is an influx of funds from the budget, so some kind of fight can be organized. She may not go to the student protest, but what prevents you from pushing something against the police minister who has proven himself unworthy in this crisis or the head of the security services, and even the minister of education? Or local leaders in numerous cities? These are all the options and arenas you can open - to do what the opposition does in every country - pressure the government. If the government then realizes that it cannot manage the society, changes happen.

That change is, at least symbolically, and happened - The Serbian government has fallen., the authorities submitted more documentation on the reconstruction of the railway station, and a reduction in school fees was also promised. Why are students still protesting??

From the beginning, students in Novi Sad have demanded the resignation of Miloš Vučević and mayor Milan Đurić. But they did not resign because of the fall of the canopy, but because of the beating of students in Novi Sad, because probably Vučić got very angry and demanded that someone pay the price. After all, we see that Vucevic behaves as if he has not resigned, he goes around the media and speaks as the Prime Minister. On the day he submitted his resignation, messages in all media close to the government were - kudos to Miloš Vučević, he took on a great responsibility. There is no mention of what happened in Novi Sad - that SNS activists armed with clubs broke the jaw of a female student. Such a man remains a factor in political life, he is still the president of the SNS, that tells us a lot about how the government understands all this.

SNS still sees this as a crisis that they will overcome, they are just looking for a mechanism, because their traditional ways have not been successful. Now they want to remove Vučević, Đurić, as well as many others - such as Bratislava Gašić at one time - and return them to the political arena in six months.

photo: marija janković

Has it happened so far that SNS tries so many different mechanisms, and then gives up on them? Threatening, offers dialogue, threaten again...

It's not a strategy, it's a tactic. SNS does not have a clear strategy, because they are facing someone they are not used to. For thirteen years, the government has been building a system in which they are untouchable, they have equated themselves with the state and consider it their fiefdom. All the rest of us are serfs who shouldn't raise our voices much. We see this in one of the first protests, when an SNS activist asks a woman - who gives you a pension? Aleksandar Vučić does not give a pension, if Mickey Mouse were in power, those people would get a pension because there is a pension fund and the law. They feel so powerful that they think no one can put a sticker against them and they can smash his head in, like they did to the student.

It is not adapted to the situation now, because they no longer have as an opponent some kind of opposition party that they can subdue or buy. They have students, who are an atypical social actor. That word student it still enjoys a reputation here. Students have parents, grandparents, informal social groups, so when you call a student "Ustasha" because he has a Croatian passport, all the neighbors know that student on the street. The authorities are not doing well enough because they have not properly assessed the opponent, what he will react to and what he will be fishing for. I don't see a solution that can be favorable for SNS, so that they can continue as before.

Heads were smashed in Novi Sad. We have similar situations all over Serbia - People are getting out of the car., with sticks, knives, trample on students... Why do they do that?

Some are probably sympathizers and members of SNS, but I don't think they are all. At one point, SNS gave instructions internally and dropped the ball with aggression. Until this beating of students in front of their offices in Novi Sad. Those people who get out of the car or trample are probably ordinary, annoyed people, but they are also victims of the atmosphere in society. Aleksandar Vučić on Instagram calls for a dialogue, and then you look at three televisions and five tabloids, but also thirty social media accounts of SNS officials, where students are called nasty names, it says that the blockades were paid for from abroad. It's encouraging a part, a very small one, of people who really enjoy a movie.

SNS built such an atmosphere, and then became its victim. Now it's turning against them, people have had enough.

Will there be elections or are we getting a new government?

There are only those two options. If you cannot form a government, you must call elections in thirty days. It seems to me that there are signals that SNS is not thinking about elections - that is smart for them. So far, they have called elections in every crisis. Remember Banjska. Five days after that incident, in order to solve the external and internal pressures, they announced elections. It's convenient for them, in the elections everything boils down to whether you are for or against Vučić. They know that Vučić is more popular than all others and in the campaign they have advantages in access to the media, finances, and state institutions. They triumph on an uneven playing field where the game is rigged. Then, with a new mandate, they enter a new legitimacy, and everything from before is forgotten.

In this situation, elections would be a very risky game, because there is a high probability that students will say - we have demands, what kind of elections? So if a large part of society, the opposition and others, joined the boycott, the crisis would only deepen. This does not suit the progressives and they will look to find a new representative. Then again, we can't be sure with them because they are changing tactics now. They used to think their moves through, but it seems like it was always in a controlled environment, and now someone else is dictating the pace of the game.

Who will lead this government??

SNS will look at public opinion surveys and conduct surveys by membership. I believe that a good part of the membership is in a panic because this is an unknown terrain for them, and we can see that from the address of Aleksandar Vučić, who often tries to calm them down. The best option for them would be someone completely politically neutral and moderate, someone who could contribute to the reduction of tensions and the discussion of all interested parties, but this is often not the manner of SNS. Even if that happens, I would doubt that manner, I would consider it a temporary solution until the situation calms down and they return to their old ways.

Could it be some non-party personality atypical for SNS?, similar to Ana Brnabić at the beginning of her political career?

Society is much more divided now than it was then, and I don't know who would dare to take on that task, knowing that it was an episodic and secondary role.

Can they find someone who is acceptable to the students?

The students have already shown that they are not interested in that, but only in fulfilling the requirements. They would ignore the new mandate, just as they ignored the resignation of Miloš Vučević, which under normal circumstances would have been the event of the year. The last government that really fell in Serbia, without it being a false shortening of the mandate, was the one in 2008, when the DS and the DSS quarreled over the issue of Kosovo. It was a huge and significant geopolitical and national issue. The government fell to us then and it fell to us now, after 17 years, but now nobody has registered it.

What we learn about ordinary people? Namely, they are students, in all cities on the way from Belgrade, citizens welcomed in tears, said they were proud of them. And what else can the seniors do but be proud of the students?

I believe that for this wave of protests, it is enough to push the demands, for everyone to lie down together. But that is not enough for later, of course. Some political articulation is also needed. You shouldn't draw a direct parallel, but we had the Fifth of October and people who pushed it massively, the whole country rose to its feet and a situation was created where the government could not manage the country because people in the institutions resisted and disobeyed orders. Even in that situation, when we had articulated political parties and an opposition that could bring about democratic change and reform, everything was slow, flawed and problematic. A large part of the citizens thought triumphantly - we pushed that democracy, we are going home and we will live normally, and we will leave the matter to the politicians. I would not like it to be like that now, although I am aware that it is necessary to have political parties, but we must not lull ourselves as a society. And I would like us to remember this feeling. This will never be a functioning democracy without active citizens, people who are willing to sacrifice their time and show the people in power what they think. However this ends, we need to remember what it looks like to be an active citizen. The government then reacts. It will not be good to let the political elites finish this. Power without control turns into absolute power, we have seen that in this country many times in a couple of decades. The institutions are weak, the civil sector is not really capable of such a thing, we all know what the media are like - there is no one to be that controller except the citizens themselves.

In one day, we received a condemnation of the protest from Russia and America, in contrast to the Fifth of October when the support of the West was complete...

This is not the Fifth of October, that should be understood. It is a big mistake of the opposition that they look at Vučić as Milošević and pass on their experiences from the time when they were young. Aleksandar Vučić studied the international situation well and realized that relations are transactional, he knows with whom he can trade with what. He bought American support for his regime by supporting Ukraine and Israel in weapons, Russian support through the gas arrangement and the fact that we are still one of the few European countries with which they have a friendly relationship, European support because we are still slightly turning away from Russia, we joined the gas interconnector in Bulgaria. And of course, Vučić is very cooperative regarding Kosovo, where in the last thirteen years he agreed to almost everything. It is similar in the issues of stability in Bosnia and Herzegovina and regional stability. With China there are investment projects, with the French the airport and metro, and with the Germans lithium. But there is a key problem. In the question of who will govern the country, external support is a factor, but the key factor is still the citizens of that country.

Before the meeting in Novi Sad, there was a blockade of Autokomanda, even before that Slavia. Kragujevac is now blocked for the National Day. What next? Will the whole of Serbia be walked??

Why not, we see that it has an effect. Tens of thousands of people came out to welcome the column of students, women got up early, opened their mouths to knead rolls and cakes for the students. Thousands of tractor drivers followed them, motorcyclists, farmers... The students are clearly raising the country on its feet and breaking everyone's fear. They produced the largest revolt against the regime in the last quarter of a century. Analyzing all the developments, that National Day (February 15) is still too far away. Major events are arranged for three, four or seven days, and society is additionally mobilized just between them.

I believe there will be a little more before February 15th. Are they blockades, strikes, but the students are aware that they cannot lower their guard and the level to which the public is accustomed. They lead and we wait for them.