Dissatisfaction with the progressive management of Belgrade is slowly but surely treading across municipal borders and the "urban-rural" border. Namely, only 27,8 percent of the citizens of Belgrade SNS-SPS assess the rule of the capital as "capable and efficient", while as many as 40,1 percent consider it "incompetent and corrupt". And the mood towards the current mayor is even worse than that
Belgrade, November 08 - 16, 2024.
telephone survey, representative sample,
1000 respondents
Both symbolically and literally, it can be said that Belgrade, like Serbia in general, is somewhere outside the Expo exhibition and the demolished Novi Sad canopies. Between the glamorous futuristic models of the capital and the city, huge parts of which do not even have a basic sewage network; between the president's "national stadium" and flying cars versus traffic chaos and hopelessly blocked streets and bridges; between Vučić's electronic board and optimistic numbers on the one hand, and the unhappy, gloomy and gray reality on the other. What definitely prevails here is the right side in the above relations.
When in an individual's life the gap between the subjective image and the objective reality becomes too large and increases, it is usually a major or minor mental disorder, which makes normal functioning difficult, and sometimes even endangers life. And when this happens with society and an entire country and nation, then we speak of a "slaved people" and a "captured country". The symptoms and consequences are very similar and equally devastating.
BELGRADE IS NOT JUST A SOULMAKER
And let's not forget what is often said, but also often forgotten in analyzes and political practice. Belgrade is not only the "circle of two" nor only Vračar, Stari Grad and Savski Venac. In fact, that city center that we all more or less consider, understand (possibly, along with parts of Palilula and Voždovac) and call "Belgrade" belongs to its smaller municipalities, that is, if we add the whole of New Belgrade (which is the largest municipality), again, it makes up, at best, only a quarter of Belgrade that votes in the elections.
Nevertheless, dissatisfaction with the progressive management of Belgrade is slowly but surely treading across the municipal borders and the "urban-rural" border. Namely, only 27,8 percent of the citizens of Belgrade SNS-SPS assess the rule of the capital as "capable and efficient", while as many as 40,1 percent consider it "incompetent and corrupt". And the mood towards the current mayor is even worse than that.
Only 10,1 percent of respondents say that they are "completely satisfied" with the work of Aleksandar Šapić, and another 13,7 percent say that they are "more satisfied than not". In other words, a total of slightly less than 25 percent of Belgraders are satisfied with the work of the mayor, while 50 percent are not (and of those, even 36,3 percent say they are "completely dissatisfied").
Despite serious efforts and aggressive propaganda from the highest place, the demolition of the Old Sava Bridge is supported by less than a quarter of Belgrade residents (24,6 percent), while more than twice the percentage (54,3 percent) explicitly opposes it. And what is probably the most painful for the president: Expo, his personal darling and absolute priority, is supported by barely a little over a third of respondents (34,8 percent), while 41,4 percent oppose the organization of this exhibition. (Aleksandar Vučić must have realized this too, i.e. had similar findings, given that in recent weeks the agitation for the Expo has been further intensified.)
Corruption and crime are at the top of the list of problems cited by the citizens of Belgrade, even before traffic jams and lack of parking spaces, which are always at the top when it comes to Belgrade's problems. The opinion of whether the state and society are going in the right or wrong direction is always an important indicator, and to that question 49,1 percent of respondents answered that, in their opinion, Serbia is going in a bad direction, and only 34,6 percent said that it is going in good direction.
Finally, the delicate topic of the canopy is thematized through the most sensitive question, which is at the same time the basic demand of the current protests - should the Serbian government resign because of the tragedy in Novi Sad? And to that question, 47,1 percent of respondents answered "yes" and 40,6 percent answered "no".
SPECIFIC TOPICS AND RATINGS
Let's understand each other and not deceive ourselves. It's not that Vučić doesn't have an audience in Belgrade for his political dreams and architectural phantasmagoria. There is also how. But that audience is getting smaller and thinner from year to year. With the fact that, as can be seen from the attached results, the decrease in support is more visible in specific topics and projects than in Vučić's and SNS's ratings. Although the fear of directly speaking out against the government still has a considerable influence here, even though the decline can be detected on that front as well.
What is particularly unfavorable and frustrating for Vučić is the continuing trend of declining support for the regime among the younger and more educated part of the electorate. And not only among the higher and highly educated stratum - although in that demographic category the support of the authorities is "traditionally" and by far the lowest. And with the political - or rather "lithium" - awakening of the mostly apathetic younger generation, things are becoming almost alarming.
Isn't that where we were before?
And it is and it is not. Namely, the government did have such a low rating at the level of Belgrade at one point, in the midst of and immediately after the "Serbia against violence" protest. But after everything that happened during the winter and spring, and especially after, in my deep conviction, the wrong decision of part of the opposition to - contrary to the agreement - go to the repeated elections in Belgrade (although I know that some people think exactly the opposite), things have changed and the SNS led by Vučić triumphantly rode through the June local elections. And then came that summer lithium fever.
AND SERBIA, READ?
Serbia, of course, in terms of demographic picture and political scanner, is not the same as Belgrade. But, as we have already stated at this point, it is not its antipode either. In Belgrade, Serbian social and political extremes are only more visible, because both wealth and poverty are concentrated in a smaller and narrower geographical area. In our estimation, and based on long experience and observation, we would say that, primarily due to the higher concentration of highly educated people in Belgrade, the overall opposition rating in the capital is somewhere between five and seven percent higher (and lower for the regime) than in Serbia. In other words, everything that is different beyond that can be mostly interpreted as an excess of regime arrogance and a lack of opposition control.
In Belgrade, we believe, even those tricksters ("phantom" lists and bringing in voters) will not be enough. But, unfortunately - and this is by no means just a phrase - the consequences of decades of progressive rule in the capital will be felt long after that rule is just an ugly past.
Less than two days of blockade - that's how long it took to see how weak and powerless the public media service is, both from the outside and from the inside. At the moment of writing this text, it is the eighth day of the blockade, and the sixth that RTS is not broadcasting its program. They also seem to be facing a strike inside the house. And the essence of blocking RTS is not in what it publishes, but in what it keeps silent
In the months after the fall of the canopy in Novi Sad, the flames of rebellion spread throughout Serbia. The first protests started in Novi Sad right after the tragedy. The authorities responded with arrests, police cordons and intimidation, but instead of calming down the protesters, new protests followed.
The rector of the University of Belgrade, Vladan Đokić, has been the target of top state officials and regime tabloids for months, who label him as an insidious instigator of student protests, an opportunist, "the face of evil" and "the leader of the criminal octopus." How and why a rector became "state enemy number one"
"I'm standing in the cordon, and my daughter is shouting at me 'aw, aw, killers'. What should I do? If they ordered me - I would throw down my baton and bulletproof vest and stand on the side of my child," a police officer from the south of Serbia, who works as needed in the Belgrade Police Brigade, told "Vreme"
The recent formation of the Đura Macuta government is part of the regime's revenge and cynicism. This can be seen most in the "black troika" of new ministers appointed to deal with the parts of society that are the leaders and symbols of the big rebellion that lasted for several months, the cause of which was the fall of the canopy in Novi Sad, which claimed 16 human lives. Education, universities, unsolicited media and parts of the judiciary that refuse to listen to orders, either publicly, with announcements, or hiding behind legal procedures, should be dismantled. Those who will have no problem doing everything they are told, even reinforcing the orders with their own inventions, are chosen for this.
Who mentions the extraordinary elections when the rating of the party in power is falling, and according to all surveys, Vučić is not the most important political factor in the country, but the students?
The brutal beating of students and citizens in Novi Sad shows that the regime is not only ready to take revenge - it is actually carrying it out
If in reality the principle of balance is violated - the way the incompetent regime violated the relationship between the concrete elements at the Novi Sad Railway Station - reality will behave like a canopy: it will fail to obey
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Average grades (and grades in general) mean almost nothing anymore, because the SNS army grades the same as it votes. Therefore, "Give me five, they all have one (or zero, if possible, necessarily zero)". And especially those who at some point stand out as acute or potentially dangerous to the regime. Which means that the avalanche of negative ratings received by regime voters can be treated as a kind of opposition order. I want to say that there are fewer and fewer nuances in evaluation, and it was the nuances that used to be important here
