The "prophecy" of the late Prime Minister Zoran Đinđić came true a long time ago, who asserted that once the radicals came to power in Serbia - that is, progressives as unsuccessfully treated radicals, as Teofil Pančić established ten years ago - all differences between honor and dishonor, truth and lies, fact and slander, decency and indecency. The systematic, decades-long "disenchantment" of citizens, i.e. the creation of general political and social confusion, is only taking on new, more dramatic forms, and there is no doubt that this trend will only strengthen, in parallel with the effort to suppress critical voices and further enslave them, if necessary by force. institutions. The goal is quite simple: to preserve omnipotence at any cost and by any means.
The regime and its media appearances to Canadians from heavenly heights exude tons of fear and hatred and constantly antagonize society at all seams, demonstrating arrogance and supremacy. Even the most informed, i.e. politically and media literate, have a hard time distinguishing between events and pseudo-targets, the important from the unimportant, they fall for false signals and clay pigeons - let alone the so-called an ordinary citizen who has neither the obligation nor the time to find his way in the general confusion.
The confusion is mostly a consequence of strategy and radical inertia, and to a lesser extent – a consequence of conflicts within greedy power structures, which are waging an underground war for most of the loot. Who is there, who and why, is a question that not even the forensic experts from Miami would have an answer to.
THE DECISION APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN MADE
Since everything the government does, as one of our interlocutors puts it, has to do with the elections, there is no doubt that the current actions of the regime have to do with the upcoming Belgrade and other local elections. The decision seems to have been made: regardless of the mood of the citizens, regardless of internal and external pressures, the government must be preserved everywhere. Not a grain of grain to the occupier! One of the regime's tasks is to discourage and passivize opposition-minded citizens: not only their voice, but also any more active participation in political life makes no sense - the progressives will certainly win and continue with their agenda! For this purpose, they are sending a message that they will not give up even one step from electoral fraud, and the president also announces the very dubious results of a survey, according to which support for the opposition in the capital is declining.
There is, of course, the fear campaign. Just as he used the pandemic to consolidate power, now the regime, primarily Vučić himself, is using the already bad world political situation to appear as a great savior. The Third World War is about to start, and if it doesn't start, then there are potential conflicts with the neighbors, who are just waiting for an opportune moment to attack the Serbs. It is in the nature of autocratic regimes to rule by fear and homogenization of frightened citizens.
There are also round-the-clock, cruel attacks on activists, critics of the regime, journalists, the latest round of appropriating institutions and antagonizing society on various grounds. The goal is, of course, to intimidate the opponents, but also to create entertainment that should divert attention from the key problems of society (corruption, wanton looting of all resources, privatization of the state) and introduce additional confusion among "out-of-mind" citizens, including those who would say to have an unambiguously clear political position. Universities are also under attack, from which critical voices come, at least from part of the teaching staff. And even for such regimes, knowledge in itself is an enemy. There are financial controls and audits, and the student parliaments, as extended arms of the party, aim to "bring order" to these institutions.
Now, what should the opposition and the critical part of the public do, how should they respond to the government's fierce counteroffensive? There are countless "experts" in the public who know what to do, but some things are easy to say and hard to implement. However, something is clear. As our interlocutors say, it is necessary to send clear messages in response to confusion, address problems precisely, demonstrate unity and expand the front, not narrow it. Regardless of whether it decides to participate in the upcoming elections or to boycott, the opposition must find a way to animate anti-regime-minded citizens, because without their active participation, even a possible boycott will end in collapse. I guess it's clear that the opposition's mutual exaggeration goes only and only in favor of the regime.
Finally, a bit of optimism. Despite all of the above, the opposition can win in big cities, of course in the case of good and motivating opposition-citizen action, if there is no more bizarre election theft than in December. It is clear for Belgrade, but also some research results in Novi Sad show that changes are real, with a little intelligence and effort. Serious surprises are possible in Nis as well.
THE PRESSURE ON THE AUTHORITY IS STRONGER THAN EVER
Former Vojvodina Prime Minister Bojan Pajtić tells "Vreme" that there is a possibility that a part of the opposition voters will stay at home, fearing that their vote will not change anything because the regime will "acquire" and "temporarily move" a sufficient number of voters to retain power. He says that it should be explained to those people that the pressure from international organizations and independent media and the opposition and civil society is much stronger today than before the December elections, and that it is more than expensive for the government in Serbia to gamble with the patience of the citizens of Serbia.
"We also need to explain to them that even in the December elections, the opposition would have had enough votes for the majority of mandates in Belgrade if the right-wing parties had done the same as the civil opposition - united in one column. If that had happened, Nestorović's movement would not have had a chance to pass the census, a huge number of votes would not have been scattered below the census, and everything would have looked completely different, to the detriment of SNS. However, it is not enough to explain this alone, the real opposition must no longer go to the elections in more than two columns, both in the capital and in Novi Sad and other cities", he believes.
Cultural expert Aleksandra Đurić Bosnić says that propaganda simulating reality and creating an atmosphere of ignorance and powerlessness is the most functional tool of all hybrid and autocratic regimes. In her opinion, those propaganda techniques would not be so effective in Serbia if the rule of law existed and the institutions did not stolen from citizens and usurped. In Serbia, he says, a synergistic effect has been going on for twelve years, consisting of black-propaganda shaping of social reality and brutal targeting of political opponents, on the one hand, and the implementation of the principle of impunity for all those who are collaborators and vital levers of the current government, on the other.
"It is natural that citizens who are opposition voters, after such political engineering, occasionally feel discouraged, tired, and fear that their efforts in the fight for a better and democratic society in Serbia will be unsuccessful. I think that it is a question of essentially discouraging citizens from being aware and active, and the opposition must not stop having active and effective communication with its voters, both with those who already are, as well as potential ones, to insist on the principle and practice of solidarity - for example, by opening dedicated funds for victims of political persecution in Serbia. I think that citizens at all times and in all local areas where there are committees of opposition parties or movements must feel that they are not alone and that they can count on clear support. Performances of opposition deputies in assemblies are important, but not sufficient, especially in the situation of captive media. If the opposition wants to be successful in the upcoming local elections, it would have to get rid of individual vanity and create the broadest front made up of civil initiatives, movements and independent intellectuals. But also to be guided by the principles of equality, respect and mutual loyalty", she says.
THE SITUATION IS INCOMPARABLE WITH PREVIOUS ELECTION CYCLES
Political consultant Dušan Lj. Milenkovic believes that there is no post-election depression among opposition voters. As he says, he does not see her. It is clear to everyone that the regime in Belgrade cannot win without theft, and that any consent to fair and honest elections would mean the regime's willingness to lose the capital. In this sense, the only thing that is important, according to him, is the opposition's communication with the citizens.
"The situation is incomparable to all previous election cycles, in which the regime won about 50 percent of the votes, while the first following opposition party would have a maximum of about 15 percent. Now two things are different - first, you have an extremely strong opposition group, unseen in Serbia since the Radicals and SNS when they were the opposition. And secondly, it is clear to everyone that the elections were stolen, at least to everyone on the opposition spectrum. That's why I say that there is no basis for the pre-election depression that existed in some earlier cycles. At this moment, the most important thing is for the opposition to clearly communicate everything they will do to prevent new electoral theft, as well as to make it clear that they will catch every act of electoral theft and to invite citizens to participate in the defense of the electoral process. Citizens have already started to self-organize in defense against SNS pressures, abuses and criminal acts, and I don't think it takes too much persuasion to motivate them in that fight", he says.
Vladimir Mihić, professor of psychology at the Faculty of Philosophy in Novi Sad, has a conflicting opinion. He believes that there is a danger of apathy among the opposition voters, which is largely the result of a collision with reality, which the government is ready for in order not to lose any municipality in Serbia, especially Belgrade and larger cities.
"When you have several dozen choices at the same time and they all end the same way, it's extremely demotivating for the 'other side.' Furthermore, it is indisputable that the government always has an ace up its sleeve that will fly in if it "gets stuck". Now it was almost Nestorović, and we should not forget that until recently some parties were in coalition with SNS in the local, although they are now on the other side. In the end, in a system where instead of asking 'what else' you ask 'who else', it is difficult to win without someone at the head of the list who can mobilize a large number of abstainers. Unfortunately, I do not have an optimistic answer to the question of what the opposition can do. In this short period, I don't believe that anything important can change. Elections in Serbia were won and lost long before election day. Something truly unimaginable should happen so that a fundamental change of the system in the elections is possible at all", says Mihić.
Political scientist and activist of the "Local Front" from Kraljevo, Vladimir Marović, says that in the conditions of authoritarianism, a society of destroyed and devalued institutions, in a situation where the question is whether there is a state at all and to what extent, and considering the fact that a large number of citizens do not have any media knowledge about couplings regime and people from the criminal milieu - the opposition has a very difficult task ahead of it, but at the same time it must be clear on what platform it must build its performance.
"In the Assembly, it is certainly not a case of imposing a primitive discourse of the ruling structures, nor decorating them with parliamentary toilet paper. The opposition must leave the impression of a factor organized and ready to deal with organized crime, the trivialization of public space, the institutionalization of violence and the arbitrariness of the leader. Therefore, a clear line of demarcation must be established at that very place, which should be the supporting story of the opposition structures. This also means that society must be aware of the true reasons for the survival of some in power and the intentions of coming to power of others. In short, some buy the extension of their autonomy and remain free with the power, others must clarify that with their coming to power, what we call the state must first be rehabilitated", he says.
WHAT IS THE GOAL OF INTENSIFIED ATTACKS ON CRITICS OF THE REGIME?
We are witnessing intensified attacks on all those whom the regime perceives or declares to be its opponents. Society is being antagonized on all grounds, further divided and atomized. In addition, the atmosphere of fear and threat to Serbs, Serbia and its citizens is spreading. Bojan Pajtić says that this is done constantly, especially before the elections.
"Sometimes non-existent risks come from the south, sometimes from the West, sometimes we are threatened by the Third World War, sometimes some kind of terrorists. This is done for a clear reason - in the conditions of the crisis, many citizens are not ready to change the government even though they are dissatisfied with it, because they perceive the period of handover of power as a time when the state does not have enough potential to defend itself. In addition, in conditions that resemble a state of war, it is human nature to unite around the one who has the mechanisms to oppose the danger of war, and that is, as a rule, the one in power. It is clear that all these crises are artificial and part of the campaign, just as the campaign includes fueling the conflict from the Second World War and fueling quarrels between 'partisans', 'Chetniks' and 'Ustasha', in order to divert the citizens' focus from the circumstances of leading the country a corrupt, incompetent, arrogant group of the worst politicians the Balkans has seen in the last 100 years,' he says.
According to Aleksandra Đurić Bosnić, the micro-conflicts that occur every day aim to produce a kind of mass disorientation in terms of values, confusion and atomization of entire groups of citizens.
"In this sense, the spreading of fear and the constant strengthening of the feeling of the nation's threat from all sides, causing a nationalist trance that is quite reminiscent of the mechanism of the nineties, naming state and national enemies and traitors, constant attacks on activists and journalists, also have a function, on the one hand , strong discouragement of opposition voters, and on the other hand, homogenization of voters of the ruling party and its satellites. The society in Serbia tends to be immersed in the field of political and ideological irrationality, hatred is strongly induced in it, and the violence, which is at a stage of astonishing escalation, makes us all spin together in some kind of vicious circle. Attacks on political dissidents, activists and journalists are one of the key political and social problems, but it is important to understand that this problem will disappear only with a change of government and system, that is, with the abolition of autocratic and the implementation of democratic ways of conducting politics", she says.
CREATING THE APPEARANCE OF UNISONY
Mihić says that every authoritarian regime has in its arsenal various wars, crises, external and internal enemies, in order to divert attention from the important issues of the collapse of institutions and the bad economic situation.
"In those situations, the people try to mobilize around 'important issues', and if you doubt the reality of the danger, then you are a traitor or at least an ignoramus who does not understand how the world works." That is why every, even the smallest sign of resistance must be suppressed at the root so that the people do not see that there are people who do not think like the majority and so that the apparent unison that we see in more or less all media, and certainly those which follows most of Serbia. This is not a situation that arose overnight and it will take years until we at least start on the road to recovery," he says.
photo: jadranka ilić / tanjugTHE MOUNTAIN SHAKED, NOT A MOUSE WAS BORN: National Security Council session
Marović has no doubt: for Vučić, spreading fear and antagonizing society are part of a constant and frantic election campaign. In times of crisis, the masses are most easily manipulated by fear.
"It is important to emphasize, speaking socially and psychologically: a form of government based on fear is tyranny. Let's just remember the introduction of the state of emergency during the pandemic, which was only four years ago, when he scared the citizens by filling up the cemeteries and when he said that he was glad that the citizens were afraid of the improvised hospital conditions at the Fair, and that he would have to come up with something else worse than the Fair'. In that case, there was indeed a real danger of an insufficiently known disease, but it primarily showed the nature of a government that was served by fear. That is the case now. Namely, the masses are first influenced by intimidation, convincing them of their helplessness in relation to the threats coming from the (often imaginary) enemy. This is how the feelings of the masses are manipulated - putting them in a situation of seeking salvation in an idealized leader as a superhuman and deified phenomenon. It is a picture of the total irrationalization of politics and the dumbing down of the masses. We have her confirmation in an interview with people in Smederevo, who commented on the allegations about the relocation of voters from Mala Krsna to Voždovac, when one of the interlocutors said: 'I trust our president... He is not an ordinary man, he is a man of God, believe me,'" she says. he.
Marović says that those who react critically to such "constructs of a twisted mind" are declared "traitors", "mercenaries", "spies", "anti-Serbs", "autochauvinists". With that, he says, from the spread of fear of the external, he moves to the spread of fear of the "internal enemy" who is waging a "special war" against the state.
Milenkovic, however, believes that the antagonisms in society no longer benefit the regime. "They suited him as long as he managed to keep the opposition parties divided. In conditions where this is no longer the case, I believe it is no longer of much use to them. The problem is that they don't know how to behave and govern," he says.
AN ATTACK ON THE UNIVERSITY
Mihić fears that the local elections have already been decided by the fact that one party dictates all the conditions and has absolute access to all the levers that will ensure their victory.
"What further worries me is the increasingly open attack on some institutions that have been, until now, more or less, left alone. Thus, an open attack on the university has now begun through staged recordings and processes, after years, primarily materially, its role in society has been increasingly minimized and even often ridiculed. We will see whether the academic community will find the strength to resist it in the next few days or months", says Mihić.
