The past two years have shown that citizens are not satisfied with the current government. Especially students, as the leaders of the current rebellion, enjoy majority support from the public, but its political operationalization is an open question. What is happening with the opposition parties and why dissatisfaction with the government does not automatically mean a vote against it
An eternity, it seems, has passed since the penultimate day of 2023, when a large protest was organized in Terazije due to the elections held on December 17 of the same year. Namely, numerous irregularities were observed on them, and a significant part of the public and the opposition considered the results illegitimate. Protest organized by the initiative ProGlass about twenty thousand people attended, as well as representatives of the opposition. At that moment, Marinika Tepić had already been on hunger strike for 13 days and briefly addressed the audience.
Thus, the year marked by two mass murders and the protests that took place after them symbolically ended - with a protest. It seemed at that moment that the year 2023 could not be surpassed - neither by tragedies, nor by dissatisfaction, nor by the inaction of the authorities, nor by the rebellion of citizens. The system, as never before, found itself at the breaking point. The heated atmosphere in society reached its peak.
At least that's what was thought at the time.
ONE YEAR LATER
One year and one day later, citizens marked the end of 2024 on the street. This time in silence, another protest year has ended. Around 2025 students and citizens greeted the first minutes of 18000 on Studentski trg with silence in memory of the 15 victims of the railway station in Novi Sad on November 1, when the canopy of the building collapsed, killing 15 people and seriously injuring two.
"There is no Nova, you still owe us the old one", said the students, who at the time of writing this article have been blocking the faculties every day for a month and a half and calling on citizens to protest. One of the biggest protests in Serbia in the 21st century was held in the organization of students, a group that until recently was widely considered not only apolitical but also uninterested in the society in which it lives. On December 22, more than 45000 people gathered at Slavia, on an area of about 100000 square meters, according to the Archive of Public Meetings.
This independent organization, which has been counting rallies throughout Serbia for years, counted about 2024 protests in 170 alone, excluding the commemorative protest rally "Stop, Serbia", in which every Friday across Serbia, citizens block traffic for 15 minutes in memory of died in Novi Sad. So, during the last year, on average, citizens took to the streets almost every other day to express their dissatisfaction about something.
Protests due to election theft at the beginning of the year spilled over into anti-lithium protests, which marked the summer of 2024. The end of summer and the beginning of autumn were marked by a rebellion of educators. The death of 15 people on November 1 awakened the broadest masses and eventually led to the largest student demonstrations in this century.
PARTIES ARE NOT WELCOME
So, in 2024, old and young, urban and rural population protested, those who are opposition-oriented and those who are not interested in politics, and also, when it comes to the protests against Rio Rinto, some who are more ideologically attached to the parties in power. A common thread ran through almost all of these protests - their organizers were either civil society organizations, such as trade unions and non-governmental organizations, or citizens themselves. Political parties, the organizers were clear, are not welcome.
"These protests are not political", was repeated at each of the protests as an attempt at preventive defense against attacks by the authorities. Apparently unsuccessful, because the trained progressive soldiers continued to coordinately point the finger at every form of civil disobedience, accusing the participants of "wanting to seize power on the street", cause a "color revolution - or something along the same lines.
The protests of disgruntled citizens, despite their announcements, were and remain political. Before supporters of the ruling party start rubbing their hands in satisfaction, here's an explanation: the very act of protesting is a form of non-institutional political participation. That is, protest as a concept is by its nature of a political character.
It is more correct to say that none of these protests had a party character, although members of political parties from the ranks of the opposition attended the demonstrations, but almost exclusively as citizens. Nevertheless, the ProGlas protest from the beginning of this text, held at the end of 2023, remained the last mass protest where the leaders of the opposition political parties were on stage as speakers.
Clear separation from parties is especially noticeable in the current student protests. Apart from political parties, this time students also made fences from non-governmental organizations. Sociologist Zoran Stojiljković, retired professor of the Faculty of Political Sciences, explains why political parties are not welcome to protests in the past year.
"If, for example, you look at the number of voters of parties in power, you get the result that about 75 percent of them are employed, as well as that almost every third person employed in public enterprises has a party card. In that case, it is impossible to organize any kind of workers' protest if it has the appearance of being oppositional," Stojiljković points out. He adds that, in contrast, students are the ones who have the sympathy of the general public.
"In order for the protest to be successful, it is necessary to feel support and empathy towards the organizer. "Students appeared as a convenient solution - it is difficult to attack them, and the majority of citizens see them as the intellectual future of this country", emphasizes the interlocutor of "Vremena".
GREAT TRUST IN STUDENTS
A CRTA survey conducted between December 20 and 28 showed that there is great trust in students among citizens.
According to the results of this survey, conducted on a representative sample of 1030 respondents, as many as 61 percent of Serbian citizens support the protests and blockades that occurred after the fall of the canopy. The respondents have the most confidence, 44 percent, in the students and in the fact that they will persevere in their demands, which, among other things, refer to the publication of all documentation related to the reconstruction of the Railway Station in Novi Sad, the arrest and initiation of criminal proceedings against people who attacked students at the "Stop, Serbia" commemorative rallies, as well as giving up criminal proceedings against citizens who were arrested at demonstrations.
On the other hand, the research of the New Serbian Political Thought published in the 1772 issue of "Vremena" points to the fact that, although Serbia was engulfed by a wave of protests that, at least it seems, will not subside soon, the current social crisis in the country has not significantly shaken the rating of the ruling party . After all, it did not even improve support for the opposition options.
PERPETUAL STATUS KVO
That's how we get to the bottom line: people are not satisfied with the current state of society, but they don't see support for the opposition as a realistic solution for getting out of the crisis. There are several reasons for that, the interlocutors of "Vremen" agree.
"In Serbia, there is something we call the phenomenon of the survival of a failed government," explains Stojiljković. "Although dissatisfied with the existing government, the people feel that they have no alternative. If we look at research in recent years regarding, for example, the functioning of the government, judiciary, health, education, dissatisfaction is overwhelming. In some cases, it goes over two thirds. But it still does not translate into voting preferences." He adds that the demographic structure of the population is such that it does not favor changes.
"The demographic pyramid is oriented towards the elderly who, as a rule, are conservatively oriented. Life expectancy is getting longer, and a large part of the younger population, by nature inclined to some kind of rebellion, is leaving the country."
Dejan Bursać, research associate from the Institute of Philosophy and Social Theory, emphasizes that the opposition cannot expect votes to come by themselves.
"From the perspective of the opposition political party, you cannot expect that disaffected people will suddenly vote for you. You have to offer them something. Dissatisfaction may exist among Vučić's voters, among some other voters, among abstainers, but until an alternative appears that is ready to take over those votes, the SNS will win the elections," this "Vremena" interlocutor points out.
The infamous status of opposition politicians and parties cannot, however, be attributed solely to their flaws. Over the years, the state-party-media machinery has so perfected the method of tarnishing anyone who dares to oppose it that any serious political action most often looks like a fight with windmills.
At the same time, the political culture in Serbia has been such for many years that the names of political parties, which in theory should be the main channel for the articulation of different views and interests of citizens, are most often heard accompanied by juicy curse words in the conversation of average people. Most citizens associate the profession of "politician" with dishonesty in advance, and many who have tasted a bit of power at some point have shown that such suspicions of citizens are justified. The endless vicious circle begins and ends with the sentence "Everyone is the same", at first glance an innocuous statement of someone who is not at all interested in politics. Essentially - it is an insidious phrase that eternally maintains the status quo.
SLEEPING OPPOSITION
Therefore, it is not surprising that in the past year, opposition actors have played a marginal role in the protests. Opposition MPs mostly decided on sporadic actions, such as, for example, the protest in front of the court and prosecutor's office in Novi Sad held in November 2024. However, the first actions of the students also meant the end of the opposition's more serious or at least publicly visible actions. Although students distance themselves from the opposition parties every day, this should not be an alibi for them to sleep, explains Dejan Bursać for "Vreme".
"There are a number of things that the opposition can do in parallel and a thousand ways to open holes in the government and put pressure on them," he points out. "The opposition in Novi Sad did a great job, especially in the first month of these protests. There was a synergistic effect with the students, although there were limitations there as well. There were protests that the opposition organized independently of the students, as well as actions in the City Assembly and the Assembly of Vojvodina."
He adds that the opposition committees in Novi Sad are materially and numerically weaker than those in Belgrade and that they have more limited access to the media. Because of this, says Bursać, a question arises for the capital.
"I think that the opposition members in Novi Sad have exhausted their capacities with the fight that has been going on for three months. My question for the headquarters of the opposition parties in Belgrade is: you saw that they were doing something and that it had an effect - how come you don't have the idea to raise your capacities in a crisis situation in order to mobilize that discontent?"
The reduced effect of the opposition on the street is even more difficult to explain if we take into account the events in the republican parliament. More precisely, non-events. The National Assembly of Serbia, which is currently in its regular autumn session, has not met since November 25. The second, and for now, the last regular session of the parliament ended ingloriously - with the pushing and fighting of MPs, so that two days later the President of the National Assembly, Ana Brnabić, adopted the budget for 2025 without discussion, with the votes of the majority coalition.
Therefore, the session of the Parliament has not been held for a month and a half. Since, according to the law, the regular session of the assembly cannot last longer than 90 days, the room for maneuver of the opposition is almost non-existent in this field as well. Time is running out, and Ani Brnabić, at the moment of the most serious crisis during the regime of the Serbian Progressive Party, is in no hurry to schedule a new session.
And so another year ended in constant turmoil. Indeed, since that penultimate day of 2023, which became a prelude to the tumultuous year 2024, seemingly an eternity has passed. If you know the day by the morning, the upcoming 2025 will not be more peaceful either.
For more than a month and a half, the authorities have been trying to suppress student protests in various ways. However, they do not succeed, explains Dejan Bursać.
"The authorities do not manage this because they do not lead the story and because their opponent is atypical. Those with the opposition already have developed mechanisms, pressures, ways of delegitimization. It obviously doesn't work with students", he points out.
He emphasizes that the SNS addresses its voters, in the hope that these messages will bear fruit with their electorate.
"They are trying various tactics: to scare those voters, so we have stories about foreign student mercenaries, the secession of Vojvodina... But it seems to me that they are not finding enough of a chord to make them afraid of a possible change of government." I am not saying that this change is imminent and that this change can happen quickly, but there is definitely some dissatisfaction among the SNS voter base, so Vučić is trying to keep those voters in place", explains Bursać.
A transitional government is often mentioned in public as a potential solution to the current crisis. On the other hand, the members of the government heartily repeat that there will be no transitional government, and that in Serbia one comes to power only by winning the elections.
Are special elections really the way to return to normality? The interlocutors of "Vremen" explain under what conditions this would be the case.
"In quasi-democratic societies, if there is no clear external support, as is the case with us, changes happen in elections," Zoran Stojiljković points out.
He believes that, in order for change to occur, it is necessary to create a wider front.
"It is necessary to build a bridgehead between the part of the opposition that we call civil - I also count organizations like ProGlas, because of its influence - to the part of the opposition that is called national-democratic, which would be politically, for example, the New DSS," emphasizes Stojiljković.
Dejan Bursać believes that the way of organizing the opposition must come as a result of serious research.
"You have to look at the data and see what potential voters would prefer. For example, in Montenegro they preferred three different fronts, in some other countries they preferred a common front. It does not matter at all whether there will be one, five or seven columns in the elections. The point is to sit down, make a strategy and see how to mobilize people, not to let the students lead the biggest coup against the regime that has been there for 13 years, and you to be a passive actor and wait for people to vote for you in the elections. Well, it won't. Because you are not in the whole situation", concludes Bursać.
Less than two days of blockade - that's how long it took to see how weak and powerless the public media service is, both from the outside and from the inside. At the moment of writing this text, it is the eighth day of the blockade, and the sixth that RTS is not broadcasting its program. They also seem to be facing a strike inside the house. And the essence of blocking RTS is not in what it publishes, but in what it keeps silent
In the months after the fall of the canopy in Novi Sad, the flames of rebellion spread throughout Serbia. The first protests started in Novi Sad right after the tragedy. The authorities responded with arrests, police cordons and intimidation, but instead of calming down the protesters, new protests followed.
The rector of the University of Belgrade, Vladan Đokić, has been the target of top state officials and regime tabloids for months, who label him as an insidious instigator of student protests, an opportunist, "the face of evil" and "the leader of the criminal octopus." How and why a rector became "state enemy number one"
"I'm standing in the cordon, and my daughter is shouting at me 'aw, aw, killers'. What should I do? If they ordered me - I would throw down my baton and bulletproof vest and stand on the side of my child," a police officer from the south of Serbia, who works as needed in the Belgrade Police Brigade, told "Vreme"
The recent formation of the Đura Macuta government is part of the regime's revenge and cynicism. This can be seen most in the "black troika" of new ministers appointed to deal with the parts of society that are the leaders and symbols of the big rebellion that lasted for several months, the cause of which was the fall of the canopy in Novi Sad, which claimed 16 human lives. Education, universities, unsolicited media and parts of the judiciary that refuse to listen to orders, either publicly, with announcements, or hiding behind legal procedures, should be dismantled. Those who will have no problem doing everything they are told, even reinforcing the orders with their own inventions, are chosen for this.
Who mentions the extraordinary elections when the rating of the party in power is falling, and according to all surveys, Vučić is not the most important political factor in the country, but the students?
The brutal beating of students and citizens in Novi Sad shows that the regime is not only ready to take revenge - it is actually carrying it out
If in reality the principle of balance is violated - the way the incompetent regime violated the relationship between the concrete elements at the Novi Sad Railway Station - reality will behave like a canopy: it will fail to obey
The archive of the weekly Vreme includes all our digital editions, since the very beginning of our work. All issues can be downloaded in PDF format, by purchasing the digital edition, or you can read all available texts from the selected issue.
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