Organized by the weekly "Vreme", a forum was held where the results of this research were discussed. The participants were Vladimir Vuletić, full professor at the Faculty of Philosophy in Belgrade, Aleksandar Popov, director of the Center for Regionalism, Jovan Komšić, full professor at the Faculty of Economics in Subotica, Jovo Bakić, assistant professor at the Faculty of Philosophy in Belgrade and Branislav Bugarski, Provincial Secretary for Interregional Cooperation and Local self-government, while the moderator was Dimitrije Boarov, journalist of the weekly "Vreme".
EUROPHOBISM OF YOUNG PEOPLE IS SURPRISING
Dimitrije Boarov: What pleasantly or unpleasantly surprised you in the research, considering the unequivocal determination of the provincial authorities for the European Vojvodina?
Branislav Bulgarian: The idea of the Provincial Secretariat for Interregional Cooperation and Local Self-Government was to try to get feedback from the field on how well the citizens of Vojvodina generally understand the processes of European integration, and what their attitude is towards the big task facing the whole society and in what sense they think it will affect on their life. It has its own trend - in 2009, 73 percent of Serbian citizens supported European integration, today in AP Vojvodina, more than 54 percent of citizens still support the process, and that gives us hope. The characteristic of the society in Vojvodina is the willingness to adapt to changes in the search for a better socio-economic framework. That result and willingness to adapt confirmed the opinion that Vojvodina has the capacity in the future. What was a surprise was the Europhobia of the young generations - the largest number of those who would vote against are in the age category of 18 to 29 years, while the older generations (mostly aged 66-80 years) would vote for. Therefore, from the 66-80 age group, 39,5 percent would certainly vote for Serbia's entry into the European Union, while the highest percentage of those who would vote against is in the 18-29 age group. This is what we wanted to achieve with this research: to see which social groups are not flexible and have reservations about Serbia's membership in the EU.
I think it is an important topic - how to bring the European integration process closer to young people. We wanted to cross-check that data with data on citizens' experiences with EU countries in the last 12 months. And that data is indicative - in the last 12 months, 24 percent of those surveyed traveled to one of the member countries of the European Union, while 76 percent did not travel. Although most of them have not traveled to EU member states, the people of Vojvodina expect higher personal monthly incomes from Serbia's entry into the EU, as well as that food prices will be higher after joining the Union. This shows ignorance of the trend. Also, those who did not travel expect that the cost of living will be higher after Serbia's entry into the EU, but that is why the respondents showed great optimism about the amount of average monthly earnings, which is a good indicator and gives us a good basis for further advocacy of Serbia's entry into the EU.
HOW TO AWAKE UP THE ABSENT
Dimitrije Boarov: If we start from the thesis that Vojvodina was more oriented towards the EU due to the nature of many factors, do you think that these results show a certain stagnation even where they would be expected to be higher, and what do those dark spots in the survey show?
photo: milovan milenković
Jovan Komšić: "In preparation for the forum, I tried to find a study that refers to the whole of Serbia, done two months earlier, in September 2014. The survey was conducted by the Medium Gallup agency using a similar methodology. If we compare the trends towards the European Union since 2011 on the various attitudes and value judgments of the respondents, we will see that the mood was three-thirds - one third was for the modernization of society, the second third was conservative, while the third third was in a hybrid, vacillating mood; In 2012, 35 percent of citizens supported European integration, and in 2014, 47 percent of citizens supported European integration at the level of Serbia. This survey identified similar trends at the level of Vojvodina: 21 percent are very negative and negative towards the EU, and 27 percent in Serbia. There are certain differences that are not negligible. According to Medium Gallup, the general negative sentiment towards the EU at the level of Serbia is 29 percent. When it comes to reticence, 41,6 percent of citizens in Vojvodina have neither a negative nor a positive opinion of the EU, which is twice as many wavering compared to the rest of Serbia (23 percent, or 19 percent on the first associations). The positive image of the EU is 34,5 percent in Vojvodina, and the general positive attitude in Serbia is 47 percent.
Vojvodina and Belgrade stand out as characteristic communities for their more pronounced modernization potential. It is interesting how the political elite in Serbia and Vojvodina react and what kind of messages they broadcast and how they influence the mood of the citizens and possible comparisons. Since 2012, the ideological split between anti-European and pro-European positions has been narrowing - a party that was previously either anti-European or Eurosceptic has adopted a pro-European platform, and this probably brings the majority's positive attitude towards the EU to 47 percent. When it comes to the referendum, at the time of the vote in Vojvodina, there is an absolute majority of 54,5 percent for EU membership, while in Serbia it is around 57 percent; 28,7 Vojvodina citizens would vote against, while at the level of Serbia, 37 percent of citizens would vote against. The differences in shades are interesting. In Vojvodina, 38,3 percent of young people aged 18 to 29 are against joining the EU, but the majority are in favor of joining.
WE FOLLOW THE LEADER, BUT WE ARE EUROSKEPTICAL
Dimitrije Boarov: If the ruling coalition has about 60 percent of the electorate, plus former ardent advocates of European integration, there should be a much higher percentage of Euroenthusiasts. How come that's not the case? How do you explain that a not very small percentage of young people are against joining the European Union?
Jovo Bakić: People here follow the leader and the party. But even though they follow him, they don't adopt everything the leader says - they follow him but retain their Euroscepticism. Therefore, they follow the Serbian Progressive Party, they were radicals before, but they have maintained a radical attitude towards the European Union. It is obviously a smaller part of their supporters and that is good. Most have adopted the change. But if we connect that with this research in which it turns out that the younger a person is, the more Eurosceptic he is, then that fact is very worrying. Because, if they are disappointed, the growth of Euroscepticism can be expected. If you look at the results of the survey, according to which 50 percent of respondents aged 18 to 29 are determined for the EU, and that 59 percent of respondents are in the category of 60 to 80 years, then that is a significant difference. This means that those people who were middle-aged a quarter of a century ago and who largely opposed Slobodan Milosevic's regime have retained their Euro-optimism, and they make up three-fifths of EU supporters. And that is very different from the time twenty years ago, when I was young and the vast majority of older people were strongly against the European Union. These are people who followed the regime of Slobodan Milošević, and that information is perhaps the most worrying. Why? Because the world rests on the young. When there is disillusionment, there will be even more Eurosceptics. A young person likes to oppose the elderly, and since the elderly, especially the political elite, now agree that we should go to the EU, the young people say that it doesn't look like that to them - look at what happened to Greece, they are more indebted and have even higher unemployment than us , Bulgaria seems to have entered the EU, they have been there for seven years, maybe there is a little improvement for the middle classes, and most of the society is suffering. In this way, the EU is dethroned, it is no longer an unquestionable goal for young people. It is worrying that this Eurosceptic part of the youth will move towards the extreme right. If he went to the extreme left, I wouldn't worry so much, because she may be against the EU at the moment, but she is not in favor of its dehumanization. The far right may aspire to break up the European Union. And if that were to happen, this part of the Balkans would be the biggest victim of destruction.
Another thing that worries is that only 36 percent of respondents are ready for additional education. The good thing is that this time young people are more ready for additional education and want to be further educated, while respondents in the private sector are the least ready for it. This worries because it would be logical that the private sector is most interested in training for better business. The most ready for improvement are in the mixed sector, followed by the state sector. This means that the common picture of private entrepreneurs as the ones pulling the plug is, at best, only partially true. This suggests that common images of the private and public sectors are not black and white and should be taken with a grain of salt. It is not all as it is ideologically presented.
NATIONALISM AS A SHIELD AGAINST UNCERTAINTY
Dimitrije Boarov: By definition, young people are inclined towards more radical ideological projects, they are less inert and more critical towards every ideological trend. Is youth Euroscepticism a European problem?
Vladimir Vuletic: You shouldn't look at things in black and white, these are not such terrible statistical differences. On the other hand, we see that young people are also ready to change their working habits. Young people can be a problem in the long run, and it is not only a problem in Serbia. The rise and strengthening of nationalism in Europe is a kind of defensive trench, a defense mechanism against the insecurity of the modern way of life. The problem is that the EU presents itself primarily as an association of countries focused on the economy. Economy, economy, growth, these are the goals. What the European Union was founded on is being neglected, which is security, and it should be actualized, especially here in the Balkans. The idea that the EU is exclusively a mechanism that contributes to the competitiveness of European countries on the global market dominates even today, and this is reflected in the insecurity of young people when it comes to work and life opportunities. It is normal that they, in reaction, turn to something that seems to them like a shield, namely national communities.
In our country, until the year 2000, the European Union was presented as a kind of "milking cow" - if we join the EU, we will be well-off and rich. It should be borne in mind that, when we think about the EU today, the aspect of security contributes the most to us, and we need to talk and think about it more. If by any chance it happened that the Balkan region was interestingly divided between the great powers, and we were not under the "cap" of the European Union, the security problems would be much more serious, then the economic aspect would be on the second plan. The economic aspect is important, but it is not the only one, and the previous insistence on so-called "welfare" is now coming back to us like a boomerang, because we see that honey and milk are not flowing in the EU. That aspect gives rise to nationalism and if we stay in the old framework of thinking, we will be in trouble.
One more thing is important. A positive feeling towards the EU is expressed (one third is strongly or partly positive), while one fifth has negative feelings towards the EU (they are louder and seem to be more numerous). What is important is that the 40 percent who are indifferent should be influenced and emphasized on other aspects, because the citizens are aware that things will not change much after joining the EU.
VOJVODINA EUROPEAN REGION
Dimitrije Boarov: Information flows from Croatia, Hungary, and Romania to Vojvodina much more than to other parts of Serbia. In a way, does that affect a slightly more realistic, sober attitude when it comes to this set of economic projections?
Alexander Popov: That makes sense because Vojvodina has three EU member states with which it borders, and therefore direct communication is greater, and indirect communication from the environment is monitored through the media, via cable television, so that a more realistic picture can be obtained there and it can lead to some kind of more realistic relationship. However, in my opinion, one other thing is far more important here. We had various developments within the EU. First, there was the desire for faster expansion, the boom that happened in 2007, which then led to saturation and a crisis within the EU itself. We need to see how the attitude of citizens towards the EU in Vojvodina and at the level of Serbia has moved. It is important that Vojvodina is the biggest constant here. If we look at the fact that 77 percent of citizens supported the EU in 2009 at the level of Serbia, there was a peak there. Support dropped to 60 percent in 2010, and in the summer of 2012, according to a survey commissioned by the EU Accession Office itself, that support at the level of Serbia dropped to a dramatic 47 percent when those who would definitely and who would eventually vote for ; at the same time, Vojvodina did not go below 50 percent. It is a stable relationship and it is also a reflection of her position. It is surrounded by EU countries, it is a recognizable European region and in my opinion that stability is more significant than this now... Now we have a new survey commissioned by the EU delegation and conducted by Medium Gallup, which shows a higher level of support at the level of the whole of Serbia than at the level of Vojvodina. However, there is a big risk in case some things change in, for example, the attitude of the ruling political group or if things do not go at the promised pace. The people of Vojvodina are realistic, in 46 percent of cases they do not expect Serbia to become a member of the EU before 2020-2025. Let's just think of Labus in 2007 or the lightly given promises that we would enter the EU by the end of this decade. Here, to me, a stable relationship that will vary within minimal limits is much more important than the dramatic developments that are happening at the level of Serbia, which is most influenced by the fact that people are either not sufficiently familiar with the EU or do not immediately feel the benefit of joining the EU. When I mentioned this EU-commissioned research, one of the factors is benefit. The fact that European countries came to Serbia's aid when there were floods was positively evaluated. People expect you to feel that improvement every day. That would be positive, of course. Professor Komšić said one true thing about the importance of the atmosphere created by political elites. Let's just remember the confusing atmosphere created by Minister Jeremić with those four pillars. Now, these new Europeans, even though they are balancing between Russia and the EU and swear that they will never recognize the independence of Kosovo, they still very convincingly and constantly repeat through the media, and are very present in the media, that after all Europe, that is, membership in the EU, is the best alternative .
ABOUT YOUTH AND THE EU
Dimitrije Boarov: In what direction do you think we should act in order to get somewhat better results in favor of the EU?
Branislav Bulgarian: An important goal for us is to restore trust in the system and institutions, and to try to restore the trust of young people. I think that the common social problem that EU members and our society have is that young people no longer know what the reasons were for deciding to create the Union in the first place. And there are two principle goals. It is one thing that there will be eternal peace in Europe after the great wars, that is, that there will be no more war. And the second, to maintain competitiveness on the global market through association and thereby ensure a welfare economy. From our perspective, we have forgotten why we wanted to go to the EU and we have been shaken several times in our determination. When we drank more gasoline than milk and also fought in these areas, our desire was to live in a normal society. And then, due to some processes that were not sufficiently explained in society, that desire of ours was brought into question, and perhaps justifiably, distrust in the good will of the EU for us to be a part of that space appears. As far as the Province is concerned, we still believe that even more intensive cooperation, as a peninsula in the EU, because we are surrounded by the Union on all three sides, with regions in Croatia, Hungary and Romania, but also with others, in Germany, Austria, Italy and only by doing so, but above all by investing in education, that we will succeed in bringing those processes closer together and thus bring the young generation back.
photo: milovan milenković
Mr. Bakić had a dialogue with the president of the state, who did not know how to repeat the topic of the master's thesis once again, that we should take a clear position against such processes, because it will certainly not restore the confidence of young people that the state is going in a direction that will provide them with a better life.
CREEPING AUTHORITARIANISM
Dimitrije Boarov: If there is destabilization due to internal political reasons in Serbia or there is some form of single-mindedness, one-party government, increased repression, is this suitable for entering Europe silently, by order, or will Euroscepticism actually grow?
Jovo Bakić: It is quite a complex issue because in Serbia you have a creeping authoritarianism at work and this authoritarianism is pro-European. We are foreign-policy-oriented towards the European Union, and on the other hand, you have the systematic marginalization of the opposition, dispersal of the opposition, persecutions, not allowing a critical word to be heard on national television. And now there is, in my opinion, a two-way message from the EU that does not encourage me at all, because on the one hand it says "go ahead, we are waiting for you in the EU", and on the other hand, it seems to me that there has never been less pressure on the government in Serbia to behave in a less authoritarian manner. And this is something that is, in fact, very dangerous for the prospect of joining the EU, because the opposition mood will inevitably grow in Serbia. And if it comes to the fact that the opposition does not have support from the EU, as it currently does not, this will lead to the indignation of those people who are opposition-oriented and to the possible growth of Euroscepticism.
WHERE IS SERBIA SAILING?
Dimitrije Boarov: On the internal political level, the projections of Serbia itself are always in conflict with regard to Europe, regardless of integration. What can we expect in Vojvodina and in Serbia as a whole?
Jovan Komšić: I think the key question is where the Serbian government is heading. It is headed for an EU institutional port, but the EU is aware that that ship can stop moving or reduce speed or change course. And precisely because of the very significant crossroad at which Serbia and its political elite still find themselves, which, by the way, I must admit, it is not easy at all, I think that the EU correctly assesses the situation in Serbia today. If they insisted on strict discipline on all fronts because of the deficit that this government has in the sphere of culture, in the sphere of information, in the sphere of mature democracy, it could happen that out of self-preservation, political interest, that ship moves to another port.
And it means to Vojvodina that the other ship does not go to another port, and we occasionally get such signals. Vojvodina is significant for its very existence as an institutional otherness, as a chance for the political elites of Serbia to learn the alphabet of democracy as a division and balance of power. The security aspect is now the most important, that key furrow must be plowed even deeper, when it is plowed deeper, then information standards and debates at all democratic levels, including the opposition, will be on the agenda at the same time. Vojvodina gives a chance to affirm the principle of cooperation, the principle of competition of other plans, other views on things and European integrations in the rise of the party in power, which has sixty percent support. And in this sense, the Vojvodina administration has a chance to show that it is possible to offer competitive and better quality projects within the European value framework.
DIFFICULT SITUATION
Dimitrije Boarov: Here we look at the Croatian case, they joined the EU and it is interesting that already in the pre-election campaign in connection with the presidential elections, that party, which introduced Croatia, HDZ, is starting to build some of its popularity again on the dissatisfaction caused by that first the shock of joining the EU, when they didn't drink honey and milk. In the event of a deeper political crisis in the entire region, and in Europe regarding Ukraine, do we all feel the whiff of a new wave of the Cold War, will pro-European enthusiasm wane in the event of an unfavorable international situation?
Alexander Popov: I have to repeat what Komšić said, which is that at this moment we do not know where this ship is sailing considering the internal situation and the situation within the EU. The fact is that we have learned lessons and seen what is happening to countries, very close to us, where roses do not bloom. Let's take the case of Croatia and Slovenia, which is also in an economic crisis. This is something that is a warning for Serbia, but it is also happening on the external level, precisely when it comes to this tightening of relations in the international sphere between Europe and Russia, that by chance that eastern wind has now pushed us in the direction of Europe, although it has become far less attractive than ten years ago. Ten years ago it was "just enter the EU and we will immediately become a welfare country". However, the EU is not the same one that we set out for, nor are we the same as we were at the time when we set out for the EU. The EU has also found itself in its own internal problems, so that all this causes an extremely unstable and uncertain situation when it comes to Serbia's path to the EU. Rapid economic benefits from Serbia's entry into the EU cannot be expected, and this was seen in the example of our neighbors, but on the other hand, it is also seen that at this time no one can be an island. Serbia in particular cannot afford that luxury. This east wind that I mentioned... the fact that it was finally seen that, when it comes to Vojvodina, we gave away the NIS in humiliating conditions and the pride that went along with it and this fierce blow that we received with the interruption of the construction of the South Stream, I think that if it were to be revealed even more in public, it would be another wind at the back of those who advocate for the EU. The economy is one of the key factors, but, unfortunately, in our country, emotions prevail a lot, as well as the influence of the political elite through the media, so in this difficult situation within Serbia and the EU, it can very easily turn out that of those 57 percent in Serbia or 54 percent in Vojvodina, for it to go into overdrive at a moment that could happen even in the near future.
BALKANS BETWEEN THE GREAT POWERS
Dimitrije Boarov: How much will the problem that some "will not leave Russia for the sake of the EU" burden Serbia's path to the EU?
Vladimir Vuletic: There are two sources of problems facing Serbia on its European path. We mentioned one - that nationalism and Euroscepticism, which I said was, above all, a reaction to the unfulfilled promises of the liberals who dominate the European Union today, that internal problem of the EU. The second challenge is related to the Balkan region, which is influenced by various major, both global and regional powers. First of all, on one side the EU, on the other side Russia, and also Turkey. Those three forces should be kept in mind when thinking about this area. Russia has been quite influential for the past few years, maybe even a decade or more. She worked step by step, very skillfully, using these problems that the EU has, and in that sense, what is happening with the South Stream is a terrible blow to Russia, which is now evading in one way or another, but, I suspect, with that evasion, maybe leave a certain space for Turkey. In that sense, the matter is not over when it comes to what can happen here, and for that reason I repeat again that it is now very much in our interest to somehow find this kind of common framework with our neighbors so that we do not end up in a situation where future confusion, be it economic, be it political, not to invoke the devil, to be in an environment that is not friendly, that is not from the same camp. Russia, with this situation with South Stream - we will see what else will happen - has been pushed out of the region, but that does not mean that this whole story is over. There are other contenders for the region.
