Between wishes and reality

Current Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in the final stages of the US presidential campaign. The latest public opinion polls in key "wavering" states give a slight advantage to the Republican candidate, who is also the favorite in the bookies. However, the difference is record low. According to the aggregation of different surveys of public opinion of the portal Real Clear Politics, Trump's advantage is less than one percent in four American "swing states", while in the remaining three states from this category it is less than two percent. When we add that at the beginning of this month Harris had a similar minimal advantage, it is clear that the outcome of the election will be uncertain.

Trump and Harris offer Americans two paths to the future. Trump wants a more conservative America, focused on its own interests, with lower taxes, higher spending on security, and less on environmental protection, with a strong fight against illegal immigration. Harris advocates a more liberal America, focused on global issues and traditional allies, with more concern about climate change, women's rights (including the right to abortion) and the rights of minority groups, with a more cautious approach to the subject of immigration. These are just some of the topics where the two paths differ.

US policy towards the Western Balkans is not a topic in the campaign. Based on the general views they have on foreign policy, as well as the views of people from their environment who know the region, it can be said that there are no two different paths in this domain, but that the strategic direction of action of both potential administrations would be basically the same. As there are still certain differences in American action, we can talk more about "two paths" that strive for the same goal - increasing the influence of the US in the region in relation to the key challengers.

TRAJECTORY OF AMERICAN ACTION TOWARDS SERBIA

Both dominant parties in the US assume that American power is facing serious global challenges. The Republicans focus on China, which the Democrats also perceive as the biggest long-term challenger, but in the European context they see Russia as the first threat. The Western Balkans is the "inner courtyard" of the Euro-Atlantic security-political architecture. This makes it partially protected from the excessive influence of other external actors and less relevant on the global level, but also a point that should be monitored and in the long term prevent the growth of the influence of American challengers, primarily China and Russia. Therefore, both potential administrations would set this task as the goal of their actions.

Related to this priority is the effort to control strategic resources in the region, that is, to reduce the space for competitors to gain control over them. The exploitation of lithium entrusted to Western companies will be an important priority, whoever is in charge of the US. Also, reducing the region's energy dependence on Russia in the field of gas imports will undoubtedly be among the goals. Solving open issues, and above all achieving a solution for the relations between Belgrade and Pristina, will be the focus of both administrations, in order to open up space for rounding up the Western security and political "cover". Finally, for this purpose, the creation of a common market in the Western Balkans will undoubtedly be supported.

It is important to emphasize that both administrations would pragmatically place emphasis primarily on the strategic commitment of the states of the region towards the West, while issues from the domain of the rule of law, human rights and the shortcomings of democracy would be left aside, if it is estimated that politically important steps are being taken for Western interests.

GREEN LIGHT "BLUE"

If the majority of America is "painted" democratic blue and Kamala Harris becomes the first president of the USA in history, continuity with the current Biden policy towards Serbia is expected. In contrast to the turbulent nineties and the conditioning policy at the beginning of the 21st century, it seems that Washington in the Trump and Biden administrations gave the "green light" for the possibility of a pragmatic rapprochement between Serbia and the USA.

The Biden administration is satisfied that Serbia stopped military exercises with the CSTO states, reduced important bilateral meetings with representatives of Russia to exceptions, worked more actively on diversifying import options for gas and, as American officials often emphasize, provided significant assistance to Ukraine.

The Americans are also satisfied with the fact that Belgrade has implemented some of the obligations assumed by the Brussels-Ohrid agreement. Cooperation in the security sector is deepening, and since recently the Serbian Army has been part of the American contingent as part of the international peacekeeping mission in Sinai. Finally, with the recently signed agreement on strategic cooperation in energy, the USA is gaining a significant role in Serbia in this sector, which was dominated by Russia and China.

In return, the current administration gave the "green light" for progress in bilateral relations - from economic signaling to American IT companies when they were leaving Russia so that they could move their business to Serbia, through symbolic gestures such as allowing Serbian diplomats to stay on exchange at the State Department or the twinning of Novi Sad and Cleveland, and political support, such as clear demands for the formation of the Union of Serbian Municipalities and opposition to the opening of the bridge on the Ibar without the agreement of both parties. The US decision to indirectly recognize the legitimacy of the election results last December was a concession to the current government in Belgrade.

Kamala Harris's policy would continue along the path defined by Biden, expecting from Serbia, in addition to the already listed strategic priorities, further assistance to Ukraine, the continuation of the path to the EU and the implementation of the Brussels-Ohrid Agreement. Such a policy would suit official Belgrade, which is trying to get closer to America. Nevertheless, the pressure on Pristina would still be mostly rhetorical, while Serbia would still be required, at least formally, to impose sanctions on Russia, and occasionally some Serbian officials or businessmen could be on the extended list of individual sanctions due to corruption. or disruptive activity. These outcomes indicate that the "green light" sent by Washington is still not a "green wave" and that at future intersections in relations, a deadlock is still possible.

photo: ap photo

TRUMP'S "SHORTCUT" FOR BETTER RELATIONSHIPS?

When it comes to the variations that the Trump administration would have in its actions towards Serbia, the first short-term gain would be related to the Kosovo issue. From the statements of Richard Grenell, the former Trump envoy in the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina and one of the closest foreign policy advisors of the current candidate, it seems certain that the Republican administration would exert strong pressure on Albin Kurti and the institutions in Pristina to end the current repressive policy towards the Serbs in the north of Kosovo. It is very possible that this pressure would go in the direction of removing Kurti from power, which the first Trump administration already successfully did in 2020.

An additional advantage would be a certain absence of pressure on Serbia in connection with sanctioning Russia. Richard Grenell recently told Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić that "Serbia's future lies with the USA, not with China and Russia." In this domain, Republicans would be satisfied with Belgrade's gradual distancing from Moscow, without the need for radical cuts in the form of compliance with EU sanctions against Russia. Trump promises that, if he wins, he will quickly end the war in Ukraine, which means that the further symbolic isolation of Russia would not be of great importance for the Republicans, while the Democrats would like to preserve the unity of the West in supporting Ukraine in this way.

Also, the fact that Trump would coordinate policy less with the EU and European countries would bring two more advantages for Serbia. The first is that any pressure on Serbia to abandon the policy of military neutrality and join NATO would definitely be off the radar. The second is that the reopening of a separate track of dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina could happen, with the mediation of Washington, as was the case in 2020. This would open up more space for solutions "outside the template", and the emphasis would be placed on the normalization of relations (especially economic ones) on the ground. Serbia could also hope for a relaxation of the pressure to deliver a delicate part of its obligations from the Brussels-Ohrid agreement, which refers to non-opposition to Pristina's membership in international organizations.

BLACK DOTS OF RED "PUTICA"

The risks that come from the victory of the "reds" (Republicans) actually represent the other side of the coin of the mentioned advantages. First, greater pressure on Serbia to distance itself from China is to be expected. In May, Beijing and Belgrade signed a strategic partnership of the highest level ("community of common future"), and they continue to deepen cooperation in numerous areas. Bearing in mind the harsher attitude of Trump and his entourage towards China, it is likely that in this domain, at least a slight distancing from Serbia and a greater orientation towards Washington would be expected. Secondly, the fact that there will be no full coordination with the EU would reduce the chances that the rapprochement with Washington will be a shortcut for Belgrade to achieve another proclaimed strategic goal, which is EU membership.

Finally, although the arrival of the Trump administration would be an advantage in the short term in terms of the position of Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija, there is a possibility that challenges from this outcome will also arise in the medium term. Leaving the existing templates would further complicate the formation of the Community of Serbian Municipalities. The possible return of "demarcation" as an option for the outcome of negotiations would bring with it additional challenges. Although the authorities in Belgrade once emphasized demarcation as a goal, it should be remembered that the division of Kosovo, in which the northern part would remain in Serbia, would reduce the possibility for institutional protection of Serbs and Serbian religious and cultural heritage south of the Ibar, leading to the formal recognition of unilaterally declared independence , opened the issue of the status of majority Albanian municipalities in the south of central Serbia (the possibility of "exchange") and created favorable circumstances for the creation of "Greater Albania".

It should be noted that the return of the "delimitation" option is far from certain. Although Trump's former national security adviser John Bolton once suggested that this option was not excluded, the Trump administration did not openly support any "exchange" or "partition" even then. However, the pursuit of quick solutions by Trump's associates could hypothetically lead to the return of this solution to the table. Success in reaching an agreement would be presented as a major achievement of Trump's diplomacy.

"EASY SPEED PROMISED"?

Based on the recent visit of Donald Trump Jr., which follows on from this year's visit by Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and close adviser, it seems that Belgrade is investing a lot of energy in finding shortcuts to reach Trump's favor, in the hope that this would accelerate the rise in bilateral relations. Nevertheless, the general direction of movement will be similar whoever wins, and one should not lightly hope for an acceleration of progress in relations in the event of Trump's victory, which brings with it both some advantages and some challenges.

Therefore, it is not surprising that the official Belgrade decides to act on two tracks, i.e. to work in parallel on rapprochement with the Democrats, whose national convention in August was attended by Minister Nemanja Starović, and whose prominent members, such as Erik Svolvel, are members of the Serbian-American caucus in the US Congress. Whatever the outcome of the election, the next stop on the road to bilateral relations, which can be reached relatively quickly and without major turbulence, is the establishment of a strategic dialogue between Serbia and the USA.

This text was created as a result of the project "Center for United States Studies of the Faculty of Political Science - The first twenty years", which is conducted by the Center for United States Studies of the Faculty of Political Sciences of the University of Belgrade, and is financed by the Department of Media, culture and education of the Embassy of the United States of America in the Republic of Serbia. Media Department, culture and education of the Embassy of the United States of America in Belgrade, neither the United States Government endorses nor assumes responsibility for the content of this project.