Serbia's historic chance

Although it is logical in the sense that political crises are resolved in a multi-party system extraordinary elections, although it gives the six-month rebellion new energy, hope, dynamism and much-needed focus, this one student request it brings with it pregnant doubts and controversies, some familiar and some new.

First of all, why would the government agree to fulfill this request when it did not want to realize some requests that were much more painless for it? The first reactions of the representatives of the regime, Ana Čet Brnabić, Miloš Vučević and Ivica Dačić, were resolute: what kind of elections, what comes to your mind! Admittedly, they don't ask themselves much.

The quick reactions, however, show that the decline in the ratings of progressives and neighboring parties is fundamental, and that they are by no means sure that they can - traditionally using all election frauds devised since the ancient times when Indians elected village committees by inserting palm leaves into improvised boxes - easily win the elections. It is clear, however, that this has already been discussed in the booths of the public regime house, because those who were mentioned would not have moved so quickly.

However, things are not simple. By rejecting early elections, the political crisis will not stop. Even if by some miracle the energy of the rebellion returns from the streets to the apartments and rooms, it will flare up again, perhaps even more strongly. On the other hand, how will the regime that has been showing strength for more than a decade by calling elections - they are held more often than some shoe horses - explain to the voters that they are now as scared as possible. Until a month ago, they themselves called for an election reckoning.

satirical illustration: vladimir stankovski

ELECTION CONDITIONS?

The government, of course, did not fulfill the request for the formation of an expert or transitional or temporary or technical government, whatever one called it. It was supposed to be a product of social consensus and also a logical way out of the political crisis. Various models were mentioned there, calculations were made without an innkeeper, but everyone on this side of the river agreed that the task of the transitional government would be to organize fair and free elections within a reasonable time, and to fulfill the student demands.

This is where we come to another problem of the new student demand, but also to the contradiction that some parties and movements have run into by supporting it. Therefore, those who said that there is nothing to do with the elections until the monumental election theft is prevented, are now unconditionally of the opinion that the elections should be held. What is there to say? If the government decides on elections as a way to stabilize its own position and gain new legitimacy, the election conditions will be worse than ever, given that victory is not certain. On the other hand, the government will not be able to count on some things, since the students have reduced the potential of the regime's intimidation and blackmailing of voters, and by God, the clientelistic chain has broken at certain joints.

Generally, students can only win elections if they are so overwhelming that the regime cannot steal as many votes as it needs to win. But there is another question. Given that in the country, any political-party organization has been declared a criminal act in advance, will the student list in the elections have as wide support as the student demands have now?

ELECTION LIST AND OPPOSITION

We come to another controversy. If it took the students this long to decide on the extraordinary parliamentary elections, how long will it take to draw up an electoral list that they will "trust"? Not to mention that the speed of decision-making and evasion is required during the campaign. Strong conflicts and misunderstandings can be foreseen.

There are already some criteria that have been developed, but they are not uniform, when it comes to candidates. Even if they are clearly established, they will certainly be porous. We live in a pagan world in which anyone can be challenged and declared a "pakshu" (that's the one who will leave you in the lurch), so the question is what kind of saint do you have to be in order to pass through the powerful sieves of moral suitability through which plenums and, by God, many citizens are sifted.

It is very possible that one of the criteria for someone to get on the "student list" will be a non-party position, at least when it comes to officials. And that in itself is a volatile thing. There are people who made careers with the help of some parties, but were never formal members. And "non-political" does not have to be a recommendation in itself. Namely, the one who kept silent about the regime's inaction all these years is not exactly a moral vertical.

Here we come to the specific relationship between the opposition parties and the student movement. Opposition parties are in an awkward position. On the one hand, they will be upset if they don't support the student list, and on the other hand, that support will mean some kind of self-abolition, at least for some of them. At least, as things stand, they will have to give up their parliamentary status after the elections, of course if they happen at all. It's hard to be the opposition in Serbia: whoever passes by, you get a knock.

It is good, however, that the students are letting down their guard towards the opposition parties and publicly saying that they will talk and cooperate with them in order to create a united front. In this regard, neither of them should be arrogant, because they really need each other. Perhaps some kind of compromise is a firm agreement that the government formed by the electoral list of students, if there is an opportunity for it, will be temporary, and that it will ensure free and fair elections for a certain period of time. Similar agreements should be reached no matter how deep the rabbit seems to be in the forest.

FIRST TIME IN 13 YEARS - A MOVEMENT THAT HAS A CHANCE TO WIN

Political scientist Viktor Stamenković says in an interview for "Vreme" that the strength of the student demand lies in the fact that it offers a concrete and generally accepted way out of the crisis - elections. The students propose a solution that the regime itself has often resorted to, albeit when it was sure that it would be the winner.

"President Vučić himself has insisted several times since November that he is ready to go to the elections. However, this time the situation is different. The events initiated by students in the past few months represent a catharsis of Serbian society. Several surveys published recently show that the vast majority of Serbian citizens support the fulfillment of student demands and that a significant part of those citizens would be ready to vote for a list supported by students (although the support in these two cases is not identical). Now a movement has emerged that, despite all the irregularities, has a real chance of winning in the elections, which the government knows very well", he says.

For the political scientist Milorad Đurić, the student request represents a "crucial decision", which introduces the protests into the sphere of clear political articulation, and it was certainly necessary in order for the life cycle of the rebellion to continue to develop qualitatively. According to him, the students' decision is legitimate for three reasons. "The first is the fact that the authoritarian regime in Serbia has not fully fulfilled, nor does it intend to fulfill, the students' demands. In such circumstances, the only thing that remains is the demand that the regime itself change. The second reason is the enormous social and political energy that the student-citizen protest generated in the previous five to six months. This hitherto unprecedented support of the citizens morally obliges the movement to, through this kind of transformation, continue the struggle for a just and orderly society. The third reason lies in the very basis of political logic: when an idea embraces the masses, it by itself, whether the actors want it or not, necessarily becomes a political fact", says Đurić in an interview with "Vreme".

According to him, the advantage of the decision is that young people will turn positive energy, optimism and moral superiority into a political program. "We haven't seen that on our political horizon for a long time. In addition to that, perhaps the most important thing, a space will be opened in which serious changes will take place in the coming period both in the student-citizen movement itself, but also in the ranks of the opposition, which until now was in a state of high degree of confusion. All the actors are waiting for very serious work on finding the necessary mechanisms for making organizational and political decisions. This, I believe, will dismantle the cocooned decision-making systems within the opposition political parties, in which internal internal personnel-staffing struggles block the energy of these organizations and force them to become more of an organizational background for finding the right candidates, and less of a mechanism for the promotion of their own leaders", says Đurić.

photo: marija janković

THE GOVERNMENT CHOOSES BETWEEN TWO BAD OPTIONS

Bojan Pajtić, a professor at the Faculty of Law in Novi Sad, says that the government will be forced to call early elections because it cannot stop the avalanche of civil discontent and the energy that students have instilled in the vast majority of Serbia. "No one is afraid of the government anymore, nor will it be able to control the processes and the system if it does not call elections. The regime neither has legitimacy, nor was it elected legally, and no one will tolerate that anymore. Now they arrogantly claim that there is nothing to do with elections, and they will rush to call them in the next month or two. As long as they are insolent, proud and arrogant towards citizens, as long as they broadcast hate speech from the media, as long as they ignore the strong will and determination of millions of people to see their backs, it will be unbearable to be a member or an official of progressives and socialists, because of the wild contempt they will encounter on a daily basis. Not all members and officials of the regime are surrounded by 'cobras', nor do they come into contact with reality," says Pajtić.

According to Stamenković, the government is choosing between two bad options: the first is going to early elections, and the second is rejecting them. The first option is bad because for the first time since 2012, the government is facing an actor who can replace the level of irregularity with his own strength and potentially, despite everything, win. Another bad side of calling elections is that those elections, regardless of the result, would be followed by the biggest irregularities since the SNS came to power.

"If we remember what the election day in 2023 looked like, we can assume that the potential elections in which the student movement participates would be even more problematic, because this time they would be truly competitive. Even if the SNS wins the majority again, the level of repression would be raised to an unsustainable level, and such a government would have unstable foundations. If it refused the elections, the regime would find itself in an awkward position because during the past 13 years it has promoted elections as the ultimate solution to every, even the smallest, crisis. 'No if you like the government, let's go to the elections, I will congratulate you, but if you come to power on the street - just ask yourself how many times you have heard these words since 2012. The citizens who support this government have also heard them, to whom it should be explained why the elections are suddenly not a good solution. In addition to this communication problem, there is also a psychological one: if you act from a position of power, which the government has been doing every day for 13 years, the very thought that you are not sure that you should go to the elections sends a message fear and confirms your weakness position, even in the eyes of your supporters", says Stamenković.

VUCIĆ NO LONGER HAS A GOOD CARD IN HIS HANDS

Political scientist Dušan Spasojević also believes that the government will call for early elections, given that it is unable to manage the crisis. However, it will require additional pressure.

"We will see if society is ready for that pressure. However, we can also look at things from another perspective. According to public opinion polls, the ruling parties are still in a good position and the results of the elections are not certain, regardless of the great popularity of the student movement. By dictating the term, the government could increase the chance of winning the elections again and thus ending the political crisis and regaining legitimacy. It's up to Vučić's decision, and he will make it with the help of public opinion polls. Maybe it will be a kind of lesser evil for the government. Maybe it is better to go to the elections before the summer or right after the summer than to try to prolong the crisis, believing that things will be better for them in the fall. Everything should be seen in a wider context, in terms of what happened to Vučić in the USA or the dilemma of whether he is allowed to go to Moscow or not. Simply, Vučić does not have good cards as usual and now he has to go for risky options, such as extraordinary elections", says Spasojević for "Vreme".

Political scientist Dejan Bursać believes that the government has now become a victim of its own rhetoric. They presented themselves as a powerful party, as someone who was never afraid of an electoral duel. In the past 13 years, the government has threatened elections to anyone who challenges them at least a little, and now they are avoiding them. Thus, he sends a bad message to his voters.

"It will be clear to their sympathizers that they are weak and vulnerable. For them, this is a dark place: if they take it, they will regret it, if they don't take it, they will regret it. So, if they go to the elections, they can repent, and if they don't go, their ratings can drop further because they turn out to be cowards. For them, it's an insoluble dilemma," says Bursać.

photo: jadranka ilić / tanjug

CITIZENS WILL HAVE TO BE READY TO DEFEND THE ELECTION RESULTS

Spasojević adds that the electoral conditions while the SNS is in power will never be equal. For him, the key question is whether the student list will get so much support that the government "can't steal enough votes to defeat it". Here, he says, there is a logical parallel with the year 2000, when Milosevic lost elections that were neither fair nor free. The opposition was strong enough to win such elections. "And now, noting the irregularities, it should be said that the social climate has changed in Serbia since the previous elections and that the government will now have a harder time implementing some irregularities. Let's say, it will be much harder to put pressure on the voters to vote for the SNS. Clientelism is also called into question, because the voters know that the SNS is nearing its end, that maybe not everything is over yet, but that the end is in sight. Until now, it happened that the SNS prevented the opposition from campaigning on the streets, and now the situation has reversed. Now the citizens do not allow the SNS to "These changes will perhaps reduce the electoral supremacy of the progressives, make the conditions somewhat more equal, although we are still hundreds of miles away from fair and free elections," says Spasojevic.

It is likely that the enthusiasm of the citizens will lead to stronger and more comprehensive control of the election process at the polling stations themselves. Although it claimed otherwise, the opposition in reality failed to organize effective control of the electoral process on the day of the vote. "It does not solve the second level of the problem, which is the election committees, where the government will still have a majority. It will probably be one of the most important battles if the election results are close, an option that students, the opposition and citizens must be ready for. So, you can have controllers, observation missions, but citizens will have to be ready to defend the election result," says Spasojević.

THE OPPOSITION DOESN'T HAVE MANY CHOICES

Stamenković says that the opposition, at least the majority, does not have many choices and that it will support the student request to call for elections, making itself available to the student movement with guarantees that it will act as the students think is best. This will be in accordance with the previous behavior of the opposition, which from the very beginning of the rebellion was ready for more intense cooperation with the students, following their activities. "Students, on the other hand, were more reserved in this relationship, which so far has proven to be a good strategy. However, the elections represent a situation in which the student-social movement and the opposition will have to act together. By moving to the election field, the student-led social movement will for the first time need the concrete support of the opposition. Members of the permanent convocations of electoral bodies, experience in competing against the regime during previous election cycles, knowledge of election manipulation mechanisms, existing (somewhat) political base activists and other (rather limited) resources available to opposition parties - represent important elements that must not be neglected", says Stamenković.

Spasojević points out that the opposition is in an awkward position, because, apparently, by supporting the student list, they are expelling themselves from the parliament for a certain period. However, he thinks that it is an acceptable sacrifice, bearing in mind the depth of the crisis in which Serbia finds itself, and taking into account the fact that the opposition parties have so far, in a variety of ways, failed to seriously shake Vučić.

"I think that the fair and justified offer of the students, which is already found in most of the documents that have circulated among them so far, that the government that will be formed by the student list after the election, if it is possible, should be given a time limit. It should undertake to organize fair and free elections within a certain period. That could be a key point of compromise. But even if it is not limited in time, this government cannot be long-lived, because these elections are not programmatic, nor will they be to deal with all those aspects on which the government should make decisions. However, a large number of parties that we see today will not be there in two-three-four years. And that would happen even if the students would hypothetically say: here, we will support a unified list of the opposition," says Spasojevic.

GREATER EFFICIENCY NEEDED

Spasojević does not think that within the student plenums there will be any big problems in selecting people who will be on the student list, given that principles and ideas have already been worked on in order to find the best candidates. For him, the speed of decision-making during the election campaign is a bigger problem. They must be adopted in more efficient ways, not through the plenum.

Milorad Đurić also cites this as a major challenge that the student-citizen movement will face if there are extraordinary parliamentary elections.

"So, the challenge is how to transform the current principles of direct democracy into more complex (and at the same time more efficient) ways of making decisions. In all of this, one should not lose sight of the fact that this is a very heterogeneous movement, in which there is a living pluralism of ideas and values. The second challenge is actually the previous one: it comes from a regime that will try in every way to avoid or delay the calling of elections, bearing in mind that they are perfectly aware of their declining ratings. But, regardless of all the challenges, the students' decision to this way of continuing their struggle is good news for Serbia, and bad news for the regime, which will continue to go from mistake to mistake. This is a historic opportunity that this generation should not miss," says Đurić.