Even a superficial analysis of the voting in the December elections indicates a considerable, in some cases huge, disproportion between urban centers on the one hand and suburban and rural settlements on the other. The difference follows above all the media division: in those dwellings where rare media that are not controlled by the government are more accessible to citizens, the opposition achieves significant results and even defeats the ruling parties. According to the opposition, those results would have been much better if the government had not turned the vote into a dubious purchase and sale transaction.
It is quite the opposite in environments where citizens are forced to create their worldview with the help of national and local television programs, which are a propaganda tool in the hands of progressives and which only offer them self-deceiving, hypnotizing and entertaining-demobilizing content. By the way, the citizens in the centers have better "informal" information, that is, direct knowledge about the countless and pointless inactions of the authorities. Internet "impact" should certainly be added to everything.
Of course, the disproportion is not only produced by the level of awareness. It is common for people with higher professional degrees to live in the centers, which determines their political and lifestyle preferences. In urban areas live more members of the so-called of the middle class - in Serbia, of course, everything is relativized, including this term - who are somewhere between the newly minted and proud progressive rich and the pauperized paradise. The former are logically loyal to the authorities, and the latter are easy to intimidate: the progressives know very well that the poor are always afraid of losing even the little they have.
In urban areas, alternatives are closer to citizens, there is a more dynamic social life, there are opposition parties, activists, non-governmental organizations and civil movements, at least in some form. For them, oppositionists are not what the regime's propaganda portrays them as - monsters with one eye, on the forehead. Again, it is easier for the government to carry out its electoral engineering in smaller places because it is easier to intimidate, blackmail and bribe people there. It is easier to caress on the boxes as well. Powerful people and criminals practically know you inside out, so encourage yourself to be "different". In this sense, the votes that the opposition gets in those areas are somehow more valuable - they are also a reflection of a certain civic courage.
WHAT IS SERBIA'S SPECIALTY??
Of course, it is not exclusive to Serbia that people in urban areas vote differently. The specificity lies in the fact that the government divided the society to such an extent that its citizens of different political leanings began to speak in different languages, almost not understanding each other. It is interesting that in the less urban areas of Serbia, the opposition right-wing populist parties are not doing particularly well either, which is proof that the progressives still hold this electorate to a good extent in their hands. The specificity of Serbia is that the completely freakish government managed to win even in the city centers until recently. If we abstract the electoral frauds, it is certainly a consequence of the fact that she managed to deceive the citizens with her pro-European fronts, and also because she marketed and tied herself to some parties, groups and personalities of civic origin.
All in all, the good, better result of the opposition in urban areas in the previous elections is a success, a step forward. The reason for that success is the consolidation and unification of the civil opposition, but also the fact that the government practically gave up addressing potential opposition voters from the left. She focused exclusively on her electorate. They have absolutely no interest in what non-regimes think. Changes have also taken place in the depth of society, and this can be seen, among other things, in the fact that the progressives do not succeed at the local level in easily winning over groups of citizens who have passed the census, as was done previously by the so-called obscene offers. Look, for example, at the case of Kragujevac or Kraljevo.
It is speculated that the elections in Belgrade will be repeated, held together with regular local elections in those cities and municipalities that were not affected by the December emergency. Allegedly, the government will call the Belgrade elections as a way out of the post-election crisis, and under pressure from the West, under the pretext that it is not possible to form a government with Nestorović's group, which is, of course, a political comedy. Nestorović would thus play the role of an oppositionist in the next local elections as well. It is certain that he will have the support of the authorities to form election lists in many cities and municipalities.
If we exclude Belgrade, according to all indicators (results of previous elections and, admittedly not very reliable, public opinion polls), the opposition has the best chance of achieving a good result and even replacing the local government in Novi Sad and Niš in the spring. If the elections in Belgrade are called, it is logical for the opposition to direct its greatest energy where it has the greatest chances, but it would be a mistake to throw not only Novi Sad and Nis, but also other local governments, into the shadows. Citizens don't like it. There is life outside of Belgrade, elem.
NOVI SAD - FOUR PROCESSES
In December, in the republican elections in Novi Sad - and the results were more or less similar in the voting for the provincial parliament - SNS won about 39 percent, and "Serbia against violence" almost 34 percent of the votes. NDSS and POKS, within the NADA coalition, received 6,2 percent of the vote, while SPS barely passed the fourth division. There is also the "Branimir Nestorović" project, for which 5,45 percent of voters voted. Somewhere around 5 percent of clearly opposition votes were "thrown" on lists that did not pass the census. The difference between suburban and urban areas is more than visible: in many election places in city districts, the opposition not only won, but in that victory was more than convincing.
We will see how the post-election crisis will affect the voters: whether the countless evidence of electoral fraud will weaken the progressives, or whether the citizens will be disheartened by the arrogant behavior of the government, which says that it can do whatever it wants, without consequences. The question is also in what format the opposition will participate in the Novi Sad elections: will the political platform "Serbia against violence" be expanded? And will some opposition parties, coalitions or groups of citizens harm the opposition by soloing? And of course, will the opposition and the general Novi Sad public have a valid response to the election tricks that the progressives will certainly not give up?
Former mayor of Novi Sad and high-ranking official of the National Movement of Serbia, Borislav Novaković, says that without electoral tricks and fraud, under fair conditions, the SNS in Novi Sad "would surely and smoothly lose these elections as well." Even in these political circumstances, in the local elections, the opposition can win in Novi Sad, he believes.
"The arithmetic and logic of victory involves four processes. First, the opposition in the local elections must strengthen the trend it already established in the December elections. This means that we have to further reduce the difference between SNS in its strongholds and increase the difference in those parts of the city where the opposition is winning. In short: the opposition must increase its dominance in the urban areas of the city, and further reduce the advantage of the SNS in the suburbs. Second, the SNS intends to break up and fragment the opposition offer with fake "groups of citizens" before the local elections, which would be under their control. Our answer must be the opposite - the consolidation of all opposition capacities. In short: we must keep together the 'Serbia against violence' coalition and offer certain groups whose values are similar to our coalition - a coordinated or joint performance in the next elections", says Novaković.
He reminds that in none of the 45 Vojvodina self-governments there were extraordinary local elections in December. He believes that the opposition should agree on a model that could be acceptable for all municipalities and cities in the APV.
"That way, the campaign would be stronger, the message clearer and the result more certain. There is no doubt that this would mean a strong institutional establishment of the opposition in Vojvodina, regardless of whether its result will lead to victory or just a large number of mandates in local parliaments. This would permanently change the balance of power and the political landscape of Vojvodina. And finally, fourth, regardless of the model of going to the local elections, it is necessary to establish solid cooperation with all opposition parties to control the elections and prevent election shenanigans, thefts and election buying planned by SNS", says Novaković.
When asked how to fight election fraud, Novaković points out that it is necessary to use all "institutional and non-institutional forms of struggle".
"Unfortunately, I have the impression that the institutional ways of struggle are quite exhausted. That is why in the coming period we will have a persistent struggle, all kinds of civil disobedience and resistance. The theft of elections has completely rendered politics in Serbia meaningless. She led us into a labyrinth of uncivilized behavior and open dictatorship. That's why our answer must be appropriate to that fact", he believes.
RADOSAVLJEVIC - FOR ELECTIONS ONLY IF ELECTION CONDITIONS IMPROVE
Political analyst Duško Radosavljević believes that the opposition in Novi Sad can win if it organizes itself well, strengthens itself with certain political options, both local movements and the engagement of prominent members of civil society organizations, independent intellectuals, experts and active citizens. However, he thinks that this is valid under the assumption that the crisis caused by the theft of the December elections will be resolved before that, with a significant improvement in the electoral conditions.
"Accepting to go to the elections without it would mean collaboration with the regime. It must be clearly said to the opposition that in December elections were stolen at all levels - state, provincial and local. Therefore, participation of the opposition in any assembly cannot be accepted, because they are all expressions of thieving actions! This attitude should result in new elections at all levels, with the active participation of representatives of the international community. So, the opposition should have a unique platform, useful for the development of democracy, not for narrow partial party interests", says Radosavljević.
photo: phonetBEFORE THE BIG EXAM II: ProGlas in Niš
NIS - THERE IS A CHANCE
In the parliamentary elections, Nis voted for the opposition to a lesser extent than Novi Sad, but political analysts believe that the difference in favor of the progressives is achievable, provided that the voters are motivated and that dramatic election theft is prevented. In the December elections, it was also recorded in the largest city of eastern and southern Serbia. There were also phantom voters in Nis, as well as phantom polling stations. SNS won slightly more than 40 percent of the votes, and "Serbia against violence" about 30 percent. In the city municipality of Mediana, the coalition "Serbia against violence" won the most votes - 38,89 percent, followed by SNS - 33,93 percent.
The president of the board of the "Together" party in Nis, Slaviša Dinić, says that Nis is ripe for a change of government because the citizens are extremely dissatisfied with the way progressives have run the city for the past ten years. In his opinion, not a single priority problem has been solved. Of course, it is a big challenge for the opposition how to turn that dissatisfaction into victory.
Dinić says that the unpopularity of the progressives is reinforced by the fact that in Niš they are, which is very visible, divided into numerous conflicting factions. At the moment, the biggest struggle is between the progressive "natives", who are marginalized and dissatisfied, and those who once joined this party from URS and some pro-democratic parties.
"Citizens know very well that in Niš, the entire sewage system still flows into Nišava, the landfill is in a catastrophic state, and so is the water supply system. Every rain in Niš causes huge problems. Despite the promises, the bypass railway was not built, and the pollution is huge. The airport was donated to the republican authorities, and at the same time, some senseless projects are being advertised, on the initiative of the republican authorities," he says.
He believes that the opposition would have a better chance if it came out in the elections in a bigger format than "Serbia against violence". This coalition could gather around it some groups of citizens and some right-wing opposition parties.
"Ideological differences do not play a key role at the local level. Vanities can be overcome and the interests of the city and citizens come first. In Niš, for example, NDSS and Dveri have city committees and they function well and it is possible to achieve cooperation with them. The biggest problem is the media darkness in which a large number of citizens live in the territory of the city. They have access only to state media and local media that are in the hands of the rulers. We are left with a campaign on foot from house to house, from village to village, from village to village", says Dinić.
Dinić hopes that, under international pressure, the government will give up the most drastic forms of election fraud, but that the opposition must be ready for anything. "We will check the voter lists, we will organize control, but if we notice extreme irregularities like in the previous elections - I believe that the elections must be stopped immediately", says Dinić.
BOŠKOVIĆ - THE WIDE COALITION
Niš civic activist Miloš Bošković also believes that the progressive government in Niš is extremely unpopular due to numerous unresolved communal and infrastructural problems. However, as he says, this does not mean that the dissatisfied will automatically vote for the opposition. He also reminds that the progressives in Nis are divided, that the citizens know very well that they are constantly arguing with each other, and even physically settling accounts over privileges and over who will curry favor with President Vučić.
As in the government, there are no widely known personalities in the Nis opposition either. However, according to Bošković, Nišlije recognize some leading opposition members and see that something is being done in the opposition.
"It would be ideal for the opposition to go to the local elections in the widest possible coalition. It is difficult to expect the entire opposition to be under one umbrella, but 'Serbia against violence' should attract some groups of citizens and prominent individuals. Also, I think that cooperation with some right-wing opposition parties, such as Dveri, would be useful. This party has serious people on the premises. Of course, you can't have the same view on state issues with them, but I guess you can agree on how public companies should function", says Bošković.
Bošković says that people in Nis are very sensitive to the centralization of the state. "Although the concept of decentralization is understood in different ways, I think that the opposition could also play this card", he believes.
