In domestic business circles, unusual phenomena are noticeable these days on the market of transport and logistics services. The explanation is that two powerful people, close to the regime, quickly register with the competent regulator the river tankers for transporting oil. A well-informed insider claims that it is a large fleet of ships (and barges) that is supposed to transport crude oil on the Danube from the warehouse of the MOL company in Hungary to the refinery of the Oil Industry of Serbia in Pancevo. Something like the Russian "shadow fleet" with which Putin avoids Western sanctions and exports oil to customers around the world.
The Serbian fleet of tankers is being prepared as the only remaining solution - since all other options have failed - to supply the Serbian market with oil derivatives after the US sanctions imposed on Russia's Gazprom, which also hit NIS, in which the Russian company has a majority stake.
An interesting coincidence is that the same powerful tandem close to the government was secretly preparing a plan to buy the Russian share in the Serbian Oil Industry from Gazprom/Gazpromneft this spring, in April. This ambitious business trick was discovered by the Russian intelligence services, so President Putin reacted strongly and reminded the President of Serbia (May, visit to Moscow) that the Russian part of NIS is not for sale. Not at any cost. Estimates are, by the way, that the Russian part in the current circumstances (impossibility of doing business) is worth no less, but no more, from 1,2 to 1,5 billion dollars.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO APPRECIATE PUTIN
After Putin's "net", there was no more speculation in Belgrade about the option of the Serbian purchase of the Russian share in NIS. But until recently, when the American sanctions finally came into force in September, the search was for a solution of the type "pull the bulls and the sheep in numbers", which turned out to be an impossible mission. Belgrade often threatened to nationalize the NIS, but it was an "empty gun" because the political elite of Serbia did not dare to allow this kind of tightening of relations with the Kremlin rulers. This was also acknowledged by the President of Serbia in the "never more emotional" brainwashing of Pink television viewers, mentioning nationalization as the only possibility for delaying sanctions: "That's the last thing I would do if I had to."
How important it is to appease Putin, that is, not to anger him, was shown by his recent claim about the "colored revolution" as an enemy of the regime in Belgrade and the personal support he sent to the President of Serbia on that occasion.
On paper, the possibility of selling the Russian part of NIS to an oil company or an investment fund from the West was at one time also current among the options. The alleged ownership repackaging of NIS served as "chewing gum for a madman" and to deceive the West - in September, Gazprom transferred its share (except for one share) to the related joint stock company Intelligence from St. Petersburg, which became the owner of 11,3 percent of NIS shares. That step was interpreted as a possible entry of some Western company/fund into the ownership structure of NIS. Of course, none of that happened. The idea was naive because serious companies and funds, and even those of venture capital, do not buy "hot" goods with a dubious reputation, even if there is a possibility to profit from them later. The impression is that, at the end of the day, the Russian side was not too keen on that solution either, which was confirmed in a certain way by the President of Serbia, explaining why Russia will not give up in favor of Serbia or sell its share in NIS: "Because it has its own political interest. It is their footprint in the Balkans". I guess after this statement it is completely clear to every citizen of Serbia why Boris Tadić and Vojislav Koštunica, as president and prime minister of Serbia, in 2007/8. sold a majority stake in NIS to Russia.
GASOLINE WILL RISE IN PRICE
In the past ten months, the NIS was essentially left to the whims of geopolitics, although the Serbian president claims the opposite - that everything was bursting from the alleged effort of the Serbian leadership to find the best solution. A striking denial of that "tension" is the behavior of the administration of US President Donald Trump towards this problem. The ten-month delay in imposing sanctions on NIS was an American test for Serbia and its president to prove their readiness and break the oil and gas umbilical cord with Putin's Russia. The President of Serbia was able to convince himself of such an American attitude in Miami and New York. In the meantime, he convinced the public in Serbia that the sanctions were being delayed thanks to his superhuman efforts and lobbying in the White House. The September decision to make the sanctions operational was actually Washington's punishment for Belgrade's indecision in terminating energy deals with Russia.
But, when he already failed to find a saving solution, the president of Serbia used the opportunity to present himself as an indispensable "market" factor and savior of consumers of oil derivatives. At first he said: "There is no more", thinking that there is not a single option left to save NIS, but immediately afterwards he offered, the truth is unknown, a "bensedin" solution that "we are looking for, but it is not there yet. We will continue and we will find it".
The president, of course, did not want to go into details and scare the audience, because then "he would have to explain how difficult it is". Translated into understandable language, the president told the citizens of Serbia: "You know, I don't have any solution, but I won't scare you."
A possible solution, which is currently being worked on rapidly, is the aforementioned registration of the "shadow fleet". That solution suggests two conclusions. First, that the sanctions against the NIS are absolutely certain and that the regime in Belgrade is now aware of that fact. And secondly, the introduction of tankers into the game means that the President of Serbia is familiar with the idea, so he could announce that there will be no "fueling into buckets" due to sanctions, as was the case in the nineties of the last century. According to the available information, the ambitious "shadow tanker fleet" involves dozens of large vessels in a round-the-clock circular route until a permanent solution for NIS is found.
However, this type of transport can be unsafe due to weather conditions on the Danube, especially in winter. It is certain that this type of transportation will increase the price of the final product (gasoline), so consumers (car owners and companies that use this type of energy) must include increased energy costs in their budgets.
BANKRUPTCY, SOLUTION NOT MENTIONED
The nervousness and uncertainty created in the public due to the fate of the oil derivatives market have been obscuring for months one of the possible solutions, which the government is otherwise not ready to implement. The fact is that the company Naftna Industrija Srbije has run into business problems in the past ten months, which prevent it from doing regular and normal business. Although under mixed Russian-Serbian ownership, NIS operates according to the laws and regulations of the State of Serbia. If there is a reason for which the company is prevented from doing business - and such a reason exists and that is sanctions - then one of the owners can initiate the initiation of bankruptcy. The further procedure is known - the company ceases to operate, a bankruptcy administrator is appointed and bankruptcy proceedings are opened, which are precisely defined by law. If the state has an interest in continuing to engage in the oil business, it can establish a new company. As part of the bankruptcy proceedings, the fate of the refinery in Pancevo and gas stations across Serbia would be resolved through the sale of the bankruptcy estate, which settles creditors of the first, second or third order. Bankruptcy, by the way, is a standard business solution regulated by law that applies even in today's Putin's Russia.
MORE BAD NEWS OR SCARING THE CITIZENS
However, there is another nightmare of Serbia related to energy. In a recent televised appearance, the President of Serbia muttered that the crisis surrounding the Serbian Oil Industry "is also connected with gas management" and that "there will be many, many problems". For Serbian consumers, gas is a far more important energy source than oil, and Serbia has so far not bothered to diversify its sources and supply routes. Does the president's lament mean that Serbia's gas arrangement with Russia is also facing American scrutiny? Does the president of the country know something more than what he calls the euphemism "many, many problems" or has he decided to consolidate his power by spreading groundless fear among citizens?
The debate about the sale of NIS has been going on for almost twenty years. Nothing as effective as the American sanctions against the NIS showed how economically, politically and nationally wrong and dangerous the political decision of the Tadić-Koštunica tandem was. Now the citizens of Serbia can convince themselves of the correctness of the famous economic rule - it is never good to keep all your eggs in one basket.
