How can an average citizen of a country sense that his country is in crisis? When it comes to Serbia, it is enough to include some of the media with a national frequency, where various analysts take turns talking about attempts at a "color revolution", "overthrow of the state" and similar terms.
However, the supreme analyst is located on Andrićev venc, from where he sends messages from the regime's television channels every day. The latest notification arrived on January 14, when the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, informed citizens about the possible calling of an advisory referendum on his remaining as head of state. The reason - to determine his support among citizens.
"The objective and impartial CRTA announced to the public that the vast majority of citizens are in favor of my removal. There is no more credible source, neither for the international community, nor for political parties in Serbia, than that non-governmental organization. I fought for the people and the people are my strength. If these statements by CRTE are true, it is impossible for me to remain in the position of the president of Serbia, and therefore, it is necessary for the opposition parties to submit only 67 signatures, and they have over 80, to hold an advisory referendum on the president of Serbia," wrote Vučić on his Instagram profile.
His words were soon confirmed - the President of the National Assembly, Ana Brnabić, announced that on January 15, she would submit a hundred signatures of the representatives of the ruling majority to hold an advisory referendum on the confidence in the President.
WHAT INSULTED VUCIC?
The reason for another story about the referendum is actually a survey recently conducted by the non-governmental Center for Research, Transparency and Accountability (CRTA), according to which, in a referendum on confidence in the President of Serbia, 52 percent of citizens would vote against his remaining in office.
If such a request by the president had happened a few years ago, it would certainly have been news. However, as this is the fifth time in two years that Vučić has announced a referendum on himself - none of which have been called - it seems that this time too it is about smearing the eyes of the public. Especially if you consider that every previous talk about the referendum was the product of a shaken Serbian Progressive Party.
The last time Vučić mentioned the non-binding referendum on himself was on November 4 - three days after the fall of the canopy in Novi Sad, when 15 people died and two were seriously injured.
At that time, the opposition demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Miloš Vučević and the mayor of Novi Sad, Milan Đurić. Instead of resignations, there were accusations that the opposition is looking for heads, but will not get them.
"If 50 percent of the people say they agree, I won't be president for another day. I publicly vow that I will no longer be president and we will go to new presidential elections", said Vučić at the time, promising that the ruling coalition would secure the necessary signatures in the National Assembly. That didn't happen.
And three months earlier, in the midst of anti-lithium protests and citizens' dissatisfaction with the revival of the "Jadar" project, Vučić, instead of announcing a referendum on lithium mining in Serbia, announced a referendum on his own dismissal.
"You think I will hold on to power at all costs? In order not to drag this nation out, in order not to ruin our tourist season, do not harass yourself, do not waste time. Submit your request, 70, 75, 80 of you, I'll provide you with the rest of the signatures and we'll go to the referendum on the impeachment of the president," Vučić told reporters in Belgrade on August 1.
In June 2023, at the protests caused by the mass murders in the "Vladislav Ribnikar" elementary school and the villages of Dubona and Malo Orašje, citizens demanded the resignation of the then director of the BIA, Aleksandar Vulin, and the minister of the interior, Bratislava Gašić. On that occasion Vučić also decided not to "give" any of them, but even then he offered his dismissal in a referendum.
The vote of confidence in the president at the referendum was discussed earlier that spring, and the occasion was the European proposal for Kosovo.
LET IT PLAY ALONE
According to the Law on Referendum and People's Initiative, an advisory referendum is called by the National Assembly with an absolute majority. Since the ruling majority in the parliament has 139 deputies out of a total of 250, it is unclear why the president of Serbia is asking for signatures from the opposition.
If the intention is really sincere, the majority in the parliament can collect the legally necessary 126 signatures in just an hour, and secure 13 more signatures. The story about the necessary signatures of the opposition therefore sounds like a legend about a dark province - if you take it, you will regret it, if you don't take it, you will also regret it. In translation, moving the ball to the court of the opposition parties: if they do not accept the referendum, the regime machinery will present them as cowards; if they decide to support it with their signatures, they will participate in the play of the Serbian Progressive Party and its satellites.
At the time of writing, the first scenario is more likely. Representatives of most parliamentary opposition parties announced themselves during the day, with the same message: let Vučić play alone.
People's deputies of the Green-Left Front and the Ecological Uprising confirmed for "Vreme" that they will not participate in the presentation of signatures for the advisory referendum on confidence in the president.
The vice president of the Freedom and Justice Party, Marinika Tepić, said that she "will not engage in foolishness", and the President of the Democratic Party, Srđan Milivojević, stated that his party will not participate in "games and falsifications" of political life in Serbia. The same was confirmed by the president of the National Movement of Serbia, Miroslav Aleksić.
Savo Manojlović, the leader of the Move-change movement, announced that Vučić's referendum was a "desperate attempt to be in the center of attention and divert attention from the student protests."
The president of the Serbia Center (SRCE) party, Zdravko Ponoš, did not stop at the criticism directed at Vučić, but also proposed an alternative scenario: "Let him secure his 100 votes in the Assembly. The opposition will add what is missing up to two thirds for his dismissal, according to Article 118 of the Constitution of Serbia. When it's a ball, let it be a masquerade ball," said Ponoš.
REFERENDUM VS IMPEACHMENT
This brings us to an important distinction. On the one hand, an advisory referendum, and on the other, an impeachment. The Constitution of Serbia from 2006 does not recognize the possibility of removing the president from office by referendum. According to the law, the advisory referendum that Vučić is talking about is "not legally binding", so the legislative and executive authorities are not obliged to act in accordance with the referendum decision. In other words, citizens can express their opinion at the referendum, which may or may not be accepted.
The impeachment, mentioned by Zdravko Ponoš, is the method of dismissing the president of the republic prescribed by the Constitution of Serbia. The procedure for dismissal is initiated by the National Assembly, upon the proposal of at least one third of the deputies. After the initiation of the procedure, the Constitutional Court is obliged to decide on the existence of a violation of the Constitution within 45 days at the latest. The procedure then goes back to the Assembly, and for the dismissal of the president of the republic, the votes of at least two thirds of the people's deputies are necessary.
And why then, if there are already institutional mechanisms for dismissing the president, Vučić mentions the advisory referendum for the fifth time in two years? It is simply another populist move. Such regimes feed on the direct support of the people and constantly check it. So the president again, kobayagi, offers his head to the people, knowing that the faithful progressive electorate fears his departure more than anything.