The future of student and popular revolt

The day after the student-citizen meeting in Novi Sad, which was announced for November 1, nothing may be the same in Serbia. It may be that the progressive government will be a thing of the past on that day, and that the incompetent institution will be building somewhere to the east, together with its first companions, where carefully stored funds will await them that will enable them to have a comfortable future and regular exercise of spa tourism. We will not talk about the fact that such funds usually melt quickly, because it is necessary to pay the racket to the host, who knows how to be greedy, especially when doing business with similar people.

It cannot be said that a number of Serbian citizens do not wish for such a scenario, but it is also clear to them that it is not realistic. Of course, not only when it comes to November 1 and the commemoration of the anniversary of the Novi Sad tragedy. Also, none of the students who are the leaders of the protests, nor of the people who support and adhere to them, except perhaps some marginal "hotheads", are about to achieve such a thing. The goals of the rebellion are completely different: extraordinary parliamentary elections where the citizens will culturally say "no" to the corrupt, uncivilized and incompetent regime with a pencil.

photo: marko dragoslavić / fonet

PROBLEMS WITH HEAD BUTTER

To a much greater extent, the "Maidan development of events" reigns in the heads of the regime's leaders, and it may seem quite possible to them. The problem with people who have tons of butter on their heads is that they themselves, much better than others, know what wrongdoings they have committed and that they should be run away from somewhere far away.

This is what the "always well-informed" and "averse to political instrumentalization" Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) believes, which the other day asserted, with microscopic precision, that the Serbian regime screwed up on November 1, because "Majdan" is being prepared for it, and Vučić can become the new Yanukovych. The Russian service has also made a list of media outlets that spin the brains of Serbian youth. If nothing else, the list says that the service would have to work on professionalization and detach the current "sources". That is, to get a little serious. No one will find them relevant anymore. By the way, from Moscow in 2023, during the "fish pond" protests, they also announced a revolution in Serbia in imitation of Kiev.

We will not talk now about the fact that the use of the terms "Maidan" and "color revolution" in the context of current events in Serbia is deeply contradictory, more precisely meaningless. The terms imply repetitions of mass demonstrations in Ukraine and some other post-Soviet states that aimed to free their states from the position of Russian satellites and move firmly towards the EU and the West. But what is the problem with our country?

Vučić himself claims that Serbia is firmly on the European path and that Western countries support him, just like that. At the same time, he claims that the West and the students are destroying him because they want Serbia to go to Europe. It has long been clear that there is no logic in the regime's propaganda rhetoric, on the contrary, it rests on the fact that it serves the citizens with contradictions. Those who still take seriously what Vučić says on television, mostly don't even know if they came, went, flew away or landed.

photo: marko dragoslavić / fonet

AND AFTER 1. NOVEMBER - SAME QUESTIONS

We cannot know how the student-citizen protests will go on November 1, which should mark the anniversary of the fall of the canopy at the Novi Sad Railway Station. Will it be grandiose or violent? Even the organizers do not know this, for the simple reason that none of them can predict how many people will come, nor what orders the police cordons will receive. Will they use a sound cannon, illegal pyrotechnics, or something else inventive? Only Vučić can organize protests for which he knows in advance exactly how specific they will be. He thereby admits that "his" people do not come to the protests on their own initiative, but that he brings and organizes them. Well, so much money, so much music!

Be that as it may, it is almost certain that even after the "revolutionary" November 1, the non-regime part of the public will continue to be troubled by really important issues. As, for example, there is a fear that the protest energy has thinned out, that material fatigue has set in. It is clear that the regime is in a knockdown, but is the other side also firmly on its feet? After the dramatic regime violence on the streets of Novi Sad on September 5, which confirmed that the regime is ready for anything, many have argued that the protest bloc needs to stop and think about how to conceive a further fight against the riotous ruler. So where to next?

There is also a topic that is being vigorously discussed in this small part of the free public: should the front of the struggle be expanded, how to create relations between the non-partisan student bloc and opposition parties, as well as how many columns of anti-Vuvučić supporters should go to the elections when they are announced? We discuss these topics with three political scientists and one party activist.

CONFLICT OF TWO CONCEPTS

Political scientist Milorad Đurić says that there has been a change in the intensity of the protests, but for him it is no surprise. He believes that it is a political marathon in which you cannot run at the same speed all the time.

"Managing the process of student-citizen protest involves different intensities, speeds and models. This is sometimes difficult, because it is a very complex political and social phenomenon, which is extremely decentralized, which is at the same time an advantage of this movement. This is what represents an unsolvable enigma for an authoritarian regime, which functions according to an absolutely centralized principle. So here we are also dealing with a conflict between two completely different political and organizational conceptions. And we should continue to insist on this," Đurić told "Vreme".

The regime has been knocked down, practically since the beginning of the protests, but, says our interlocutor, it should never be underestimated. Especially in his intention to radicalize the situation and drag students and citizens into a spiral of violence.

"Any radicalization narrows the base of student-citizen protest and favors the regime. On the contrary, we should work patiently on the continuous expansion and massification of the student-citizen movement, as well as on international visibility, both of the movement itself and of all the scandalous moves of the authoritarian regime. This is only a stage in building a democratic tide that will overwhelm and defunctionalize all the tricks the regime plans to use in the elections," he says.

Despot Kovačević from the Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade says that the announced turbulent autumn in Serbia has not happened, at least not yet. There are events, but they are sporadic and often a reaction to the moves of the authorities.

"It is true that there has been a decrease in the activity and mass of meetings and protests, but there has been no decrease in dissatisfaction. Over the past months, society has become even more polarized and the sides are further apart. Citizens are certainly tired due to the dynamics and duration of the process, but their dissatisfaction is clearly there. Only the elections can show us how much dissatisfaction there really is. This dissatisfaction will dictate every future election, even if in some cases the protests completely disappear. The dissatisfaction has turned into support for the student movement, but it is important to emphasize that it is a long way from support to the vote in the elections. On the other hand, the government has its own answers that are clearly directed. It seems that at this moment they are clearly determined to address their audience, building additional cohesion within their ranks through economic measures and a negative campaign against blockades," he says.

A NEW GENERATION OF STUDENTS IS COMING

Political consultant Dušan Lj. Milenkovic is not worried. According to him, in the context of protests, lowering and raising of tension are quite logical and expected.

"According to my calculation, this is already the sixth lowering of tensions. So, it is a repeating cycle. As for autumn, it has just begun. November brings a lot, including tens of thousands of freshmen who, like never before in Serbian history, can't wait to be inaugurated into the identity of 'student'", he says.

From the perspective of the opposition activist, vice-president of the National Movement of Serbia, Borislav Novaković, the regime drags the political scene into the "phase of mortification", wants the political fight to start resembling the 12th round of a boxing match, in which the opponents are tired and exhausted.

"Currently, regardless of the massive use of repressive methods, the regime does not have the ability to quell the civil rebellion, but, on the other hand, the protests do not have the strength and momentum to end Vučić's rule either. However, the success of the protests is not measured only by the number of citizens who participate in them, but also by the continuity and intensity of the message. Regardless of fatigue and ups and downs, the lasting value of these protests is unquestionable: it is contained in the fact that we currently have accumulated, cumulative dissatisfaction that represents a permanent danger to the government, regardless of the superficial impression that the protests are calming down", he says.

photo: marko dragoslavić / fonet

EPILOGUE OF THE ELECTION FIGHT

When asked how students should conceptualize their activities in the coming period, Kovačević says that, in his opinion, faculty blockades are to a significant extent a spent mechanism.

"Obviously, the way the students chose was different and that, in the general distrust of institutions, of political parties, it became an approach that many citizens gave support and trust. The perseverance and determination of the student movement showed all political actors that changes in approach are necessary. The other side of the story are the mechanisms that are used to achieve results. Such mechanisms can be expendable and exhausting, and should not be seen as a goal, but as a means," he says.

He claims that the students have been innovative so far and assumes that their creativity will be significantly greater in the coming period.

"Certainly, the epilogue of that struggle must come in the elections, and election campaigns are a great space for offering new ideas. Elections put the struggle before the student movement with legal and legitimate means, and strategic and operational preparation is necessary if they want to compensate for the shortcomings of the electoral process", he claims.

Đurić says that the successes of the student protest are undoubted - plenums and civic gatherings. It is, he says, about new forms of political organization, in which a huge leap has been made in the direction of breaking with the pyramid structure of our political parties.

"Most political parties are leadership-based and organized according to the one-all principle, while plenums and assemblies are organized, quite the opposite, according to the all-all principle. This has made a step forward into a completely new political-organizational dimension, a dimension in which each individual becomes an equally important hub of a wide action network. At the same time, this form eludes the 'traditional' regime methods of locating, targeting and 'grinding' political opponents. Therefore, there is no reason not to continue with such models, with the fact that it would be necessary for the students themselves to be more visible in the public in the coming period", he says.

HOW TO MAKE THE SILENT MAJORITY LOUD

Although he has several decades of political experience, Novaković believes that it would be "pretentious and tasteless" for him to advise students. According to him, they have repeatedly shown exceptional skill in choosing creative and motivationally extremely successful oppositions to Vučić's regime.

"However, what I feel can give new momentum and quality to more protests is tighter cooperation and the creation of a united front of all those who think, feel and act in opposition. Victory in politics is brought about by the union and solid connection between the fighting minority, which actively participates in political processes, and the silent majority, which thinks the same, but remains passive and reserved. Encouraging that silent majority to assume the role of a vocal majority will decide the fate of the current regime," says Novaković.

Milenković answers briefly - he does not want to give public advice to students "out of respect for the gigantic and historic victories they achieved".

RELATIONSHIP OF STUDENTS AND OPPOSITION PARTIES

The relationship between the student movement and the opposition parties is, Milorad Đurić tells us, a very delicate issue because it is not about some simple political rivalry, but about different political and organizational cultures. According to him, with their open structures, student plenums and civic assemblies have called into question the current form of political parties.

"As for the opposition parties, they are simply paying for their own operational closedness - at the moment, it seems that only the Democratic Party is trying to reform itself in the direction of greater openness. The idea of ​​closed, self-sufficient parties has simply become dysfunctional. There is no doubt that there are a large number of experienced politicians in the opposition parties who can help, but in the context of future elections, I think that the opposition parties should skip this 'circle' and give priority to the student list. If this is not possible, and research shows in order for the coalition of opposition parties to pass the census, then two lists would be acceptable", says Đurić.

Kovačević claims that the position of opposition parties and movements in Serbia is very ungrateful. Certainly, they themselves are to blame for that status, but their fault is not the only one, he says. Social mistrust towards them is high and is the product of various campaigns.

"There is a discussion in society and the opposition media about the role of the opposition in the coming period. Unlike many opinions, I am of the opinion that there is no success for the student movement without cooperation with opposition parties and movements. Success is not guaranteed even if there is cooperation. Opinions that the opposition should 'cede' its infrastructure to the student movement or to observe events silently, do not enter into the essence of political motivation. I can hardly imagine the effectiveness of that 'cease' without a clear role of opposition parties in the election process itself and On the other hand, the student movement has repeatedly emphasized the independence of the opposition parties and movements, whatever the resources they have at the local level. I think that the student movement must come up with a certain offer for the opposition parties and movements, then in the end they will be competing in the future elections in accordance with priorities", he says Kovacevic.

photo: marko dragoslavić / fonet

COMMON GOALS ARE HERE

Novaković points out that common goals are necessary for political cooperation, and that the student movement and the opposition have a lot in common in this regard - the fight for justice and for institutions to do their job, as well as the demand for extraordinary parliamentary elections, which, according to him, are currently the only way to achieve these goals.

"All energy and pressure should be focused on how to get to the elections as soon as possible and welcome them ready. What decisions the students will make is up to them, but the fact is that it is necessary for the actions of all actors to be coordinated and directed towards a common goal. I cannot speak for the entire opposition, but when it comes to the People's Movement of Serbia, we are working to strengthen local committees and raise the party's infrastructure, as well as training controllers," he says.

As a political consultant, Milenković is engaged in the Sprint Insight agency, which has conducted several public opinion surveys in the past period, searching for the answer to the most fruitful performance of the anti-Vuvučić forces in the extraordinary parliamentary elections.

"Research tells us that a larger number of opposition columns is the only way for Vučić to hope to win. That is why it is of the utmost importance that, in addition to the student list, there should be at most two opposition coalitions. And the relationship of all actors in the anti-regime front should be a relationship of intense communication, cooperation and coordination," he believes.