There is no doubt that the representatives would regime and its biggest opponents, whether pro-European or anti-European, agreed on one thing: Europe has long supported Aleksandar Vučić! The first will say - because he is a great visionary, from whom everyone can learn. And the other - Vučić is buying the favor of the most powerful Western countries through political, economic and trade privileges (or, as they say, by selling off the land) - a little for the purposes of propaganda, and a little to turn a blind eye so that he can do what he wants inside.
European diplomats have been watching relatively calmly, since 2012, how the country of Serbia is shriveling up like overcooked beef and how everything that represents European value is being systematically exterminated in it. Bureaucratic phrases about the rule of law, European path, clusters and institutional development they got on everyone's heads, simply because the situation is getting worse every year. This is one of the important (but not the only) reasons why Serbian citizens' support for European integration is at a historic low. In half of the two thousand, even 70 percent of the citizens were in favor of the EU, and today that percentage has been halved.
The reason for the unpopularity of the EU is the continuous anti-European propaganda carried out in the regime's media. As things stand, Europe in Serbia supports or has recently supported those who are its biggest opponents and haters. And those who never think of ever stepping into it institutionally. They see her as a piggy bank.
photo: fonet / see…P. Grbović,…
THINGS ARE NOT THAT SIMPLE
But all this is actually very simplified. Namely, the European Union is a complex creation of institutions, political parties, organizations, member states and their interests. There are inertias, complicated decisions are made, it is difficult to change attitudes. There isn't one there Putin and Vučić who can bang on the table and say - from tomorrow we will do this! When someone sells them something, they keep it in the closet for a long time.
Besides, it is clear that we live in a crazy world of big wars and bloated populists, and yes Serbia it can hardly reach the "popularity" it had in the nineties, that is, to be very important to decision-makers in large areas. By default, Europeans have to talk and cooperate with those who are elected by the citizens, and it is up to the citizens to change those elected officials, as they know how.
However, from the beginning student-citizen protest in Serbia, to some extent even earlier, the turn of the EU in relation to Serbia and the Vučić regime is noticeable. He is most noticeable among the European public, among the left and liberal European families of parties, in the European Parliament, somewhat less so in the European Commission. In individual members, the situation is different - somewhere they read Vučić completely, somewhere they didn't completely or pretended to be silly. But everywhere, from that great reformer, who transformed from a sweaty Chetnik into a Eurofanatic, he became someone that no one really looks forward to. Everyone runs away from Vučić, because his presence only harms them. This also applies to politicians from the European People's Party, of which SNS is an associate member. He simply stripped like Tarzan.
We have come to the point where, for the first time in Europe, the possibility of personal sanctions against representatives of the Vučić regime who violate laws and carry out violence against students and citizens is being seriously considered. There is also pressure on the ENP - internally and externally - to consider the status of progressives in the community of conservative parties. More serious support programs for independent media in Serbia are also being considered. The most important thing is that they are discussing how to profile future financial assistance to Vučić's government, which may be, at least in part, canceled or extended.
THE CHANGE IN ATTITUDE IS OBVIOUS
Our interlocutors, who are representatives of pro-European parties, agree that in the past year there has been a significant change in the attitude of EU institutions and parties towards the regime in Serbia. That change is visible even on a monthly basis.
Natan Albahari, International Secretary Movement of free citizens, a party that is a member of ALDE (Association of European Liberals and Democrats), states that the change did not happen by itself. Month-long student-citizen protests and regime violence have taken their toll, but it is also important that pro-European parties have been campaigning for a long time in which they are trying to explain to decision-makers in the EU what is actually happening here. In all of this, there is also a great contribution of the students who visited European institutions.
"We sometimes get the impression, especially on social networks, that the whole world must know what is happening in Serbia down to the last detail. Things don't work that way. It is very important to be active transmitters of messages and that through our actions, by going to European institutions, writing letters, participating in debates - we influence the change of opinion about the rule of the SNS", says Albahari.
He adds that things did not go quickly and easily, but that today change is visible everywhere. The progressive forces in the European Parliament (almost 40 percent of seats in the EP - these are social democrats, liberals and greens) have a very critical attitude towards the regime in Serbia and are putting pressure on the largest political group, the ENP, to change its attitude towards the SNS.
"And there are positive developments here. For the first time, the ENP is considering its position towards the SNS. This was most influenced by the position of the progressives towards the war in Ukraine. The ENP very explicitly supports Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. When they see that their member, even an affiliated one, does not have such attitudes and values, it presents a huge problem to the other members. This problem is particularly pronounced among conservatives who arrive from northern countries. On top of that, Serbia's democratic backsliding, violence against citizens, what Vučić calls MEPs "scum"... We are on the way to SNS ending up outside the ENP, but it must be said that it is not a short and simple process. In the conversation with the European conservatives, we see a willingness to significantly revise the attitude towards Vučić's party", says Albahari.
photo: fonet / see...D. Veselinović and other representatives of pro-European parties in Serbia at the session of the European Parliament
MEDIA IS IMPORTANT
Zdravko Ponoš, president of the "Srce" party, and Borko Stefanović, deputy president of the Freedom and Right Party, had numerous meetings with European officials and people from European parties, and they also note a significant difference in the attitude of Europeans towards the Vučić regime lately. Both say that the European media, which follow the situation in Serbia much more and more comprehensively than before, influence the perception of the public and decision-makers. They question the positions of their governments when it comes to cooperation with the denounced autocrat who beats and arrests students and citizens.
Stefanović says that it is clear to everyone that Vučić's regime steals elections, violates laws, beats citizens and students, tries to close the few remaining objective media... The change is visible, but it was achieved with great difficulty. The rebellion of Serbian citizens led by students contributed the most to it, but the activities of the opposition and the non-governmental sector directed towards Brussels and the capitals of European countries also helped.
"Our strategic goal, which we achieved, was to separate Vučić from Serbia and its destiny. To delegitimize him at every step, to prevent him from dragging the entire country into the abyss with him, from causing bloodshed in order to protect his own plunder. The European Parliament went the furthest, it preserved the face of the EU, but there are clear movements in the European Commission and the European Council as well. We are sending a clear message to everyone - if the interests of the Vučić regime are realized, Serbia will fail", says Stefanović.
He confirms that there is a difference between the attitudes of European institutions towards the Vučić regime in relation to the attitudes of some member states. For 13 years, he says, Vučić has been buying support and taking photos with world leaders for the bare sake of staying in power and looting, and therefore has a better reputation in some countries.
"Now, however, he has reached the wall everywhere. If nothing else, it is unpleasant for everyone to have anything to do with an isolated, unstable autocrat, who no longer has anywhere to take loans from and add additional debt to this country, in order to preserve power. He has also become an unwanted, destructive relative from the edge of Europe in the ENP," says Stefanović.
SLOW BUT UNSTOPPABLE CHANGES
Zdravko Ponoš says that attitude changes are slower than we would like, but that it is still an unstoppable process. He also lists the reasons for the slowness:
"Firstly, economic reasons. There are several significant European countries that have solid economic interests in Serbia. The arrangements, contrary to European rules, are based on the regime. They are wary of the fact that political changes, especially if they are not carried out peacefully, could have repercussions on their interests. The other reasons are geopolitical. If they put too much pressure on Vučić, they are afraid that he will bend towards Russia. Vučić is consciously fueling those fears. In a way, Russia is doing the same. The Russians are thereby they consciously and quite well manipulate the West in the bed they sleep in, as long as the West pays for both. The third reason is the fear of the unknown, which Vucic also fuels all the time - What will happen if I'm not there, at least you know what you're in for," says Ponoš.
In addition to all that, he states, there is also a diplomatic dimension. Diplomats of the highest class no longer sit in Belgrade, but people whose task it is to report.
"And when they want to do something, they deal with things that clearly won't have any results. They force the opposition to participate in elections or to negotiate with the government. They do the same with non-governmental organizations. And it's clear to everyone that there's nothing to be gained from that. It seems that all they care about is writing in the reports that they influenced non-regime actors to participate in the so-called processes, even though it's clear to everyone that they lead nowhere," says Ponoš.
WHAT CHANGE BRINGS?
Ponoš believes that changing the narrative and attitude towards Vučić will have a beneficial effect on the citizens of Serbia. At the very least, it is distasteful that, no matter how much it is a matter of manners or culture, high-ranking European politicians hug Aleksandar Vucic and say "dear Aleksandar" to him while he beats children, keeps them in custody and fires sound cannons. "It depresses citizens in Serbia who are European-minded. The decline in the popularity of the EU is also a consequence of that. The consequence of that is that there are no European flags at protests. I told this to my interlocutors in Birsel and Strasbourg, and they understood it," says Ponoš, adding that some concrete actions, such as personalized sanctions against regime leaders, would truly change the attitude of citizens towards the EU.
"It would be clear what kind of relationship they have towards whom. I also suggested to them that they should not say that 'Serbia did not do something', that 'Serbia does not fulfill its obligations'. This confirms Vučić's thesis that he is equal to Serbia. Say that 'the government did not do this and that,'" says Ponoš.
Albahari says that the EU is not in the business of changing governments in other countries, nor that there are any mechanisms for that. He agrees that changing the narrative will have a beneficial effect.
"A lot of people have lost hope that Serbia will become a member of the EU, after 13 years of anti-European propaganda. Things would change if we went in the direction of restrictive measures for individuals who are responsible for the situation in Serbia, freezing their assets, making it impossible for them to travel, making it impossible for them to meet with European officials, thus in the direction of isolating responsible individuals. This would show that the EU really stands behind its values," says Albahari.
PREDICTABILITY IS ESSENTIAL IN INTERNATIONAL POLITICS
Stefanović adds that predictability is important in international politics and that it would therefore be important for European officials to know exactly what the alternative to Vučić is. Albahari believes that it is important for political actors in Serbia, both political and non-political, to show that there is a strong European alternative.
"When you work with a party, you know its structure, its program, the people you talk to. In that sense, it would be good for all of us, and for the European partners, to get at least some picture of which people will lead the student list. To make it clear who can be talked to, what their next steps are," says Albahari.
WITH OR AGAINST THE EU
Nebojša Novaković, the deputy president of the Democratic Party - which is an affiliated member of the European Party of Socialists (PES) and which firmly stands by the student movement - says that the events in Serbia are no longer just an internal matter but "the mirror in which Europe is seen". Thanks to them, the question of how much the EU still "recognizes its own values" was raised.
"What has changed is that it is no longer a question of what the European leaders will say to the autocrats behind closed doors, but what they will say to those who came to its doorstep, on foot and without illusions, to ask what their future will look like - and that is the student movement. While the European political elites are calculating to some extent, the citizens and media of Europe are encouraged - because they recognize in us what Europe used to be: a restless search for truth and ideals", says Novaković, who also had numerous meetings with representatives of European institutions and party.
He says that the EU came to Serbia for minerals and resources, and that in return it offered its most precious resource - students and youth.
"Let them not wonder where the flags of the European Union are - the orientation of the protest is clearer than any symbol. Because the values carried by those people - the demand for Serbia's place in the developed, democratic world - are European values themselves. European institutions would gain much more if they became partners with those people, than they would lose if they stopped being partners with those against whom those people took to the streets. As for Vučić, this country has decided - Serbia is a permanently changed society in which he and his system cannot remain in power. We recommend the same to the European Union, for the sake of its credibility. We do not appeal to emotions, but to experience - with the likes of Sanader, Borisov, Gruevski, but also the current Fico and Orban. We would like it to be with the EU, not against it," says Novaković.
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