That the USA is planning an action in cooperation with Israel was said during the January protests in Iran, especially after Donald Trump's sudden withdrawal from his promise to the people of Iran that the USA would support their rebellion and change of government. His decision not to intervene, as "Axios" wrote in mid-January, was influenced by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who asked him to postpone the attack on Iran until Israel is better prepared for Iran's expected response. A month later, during a meeting with Trump in Washington, Netanyahu stated that if the US reaches an agreement with Iran, "it must contain elements that are vital to Israel", that is, the suspension of Iran's nuclear program, the limitation of ballistic missiles and the dismantling of Iran's proxy network (the "Axis of Resistance"), which includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, the Shia militias in Iraq, Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
During February, the US military presence in the Arabian Sea was significantly increased. Determined to demonstrate its naval power, the US waited patiently for the fleet to arrive. At the end of last week, the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, 333 meters long and almost 77 wide, was anchored there, with a crew of 5680 members, including the pilots of the 90 fighter planes it carries. In addition to Lincoln, at least 13–16 other warships – aircraft carriers, long-range missile destroyers and three specialized littoral combat ships – were waiting ready for action. The aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford has positioned itself near Israel in support. On Friday night, while negotiations with Iran were still ongoing, the US fleet in the region increased by about 10.000 troops.
Trump announced that he would make the decision to attack Iran based on the assessments of special envoys Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner, to whom he assigned the position of "envoy for peace" in February. The third round of negotiations between the US and Iran, with mediators from Oman, ended on the evening of Friday, February 27 in Geneva. Announcing a resumption on Monday, March 2, in Vienna, Oman's representative said the negotiations were difficult but moving in the right direction. Abbas Aragchi, Iran's foreign minister, told the ABC that the Iranian side left the Geneva talks with an "agreement within reach" and the understanding that "they can reach an agreement the next time they meet."
Donald Trump's special envoys said nothing, but that evening it appeared that avoiding military conflict was still an option. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has warned US ambassadors in the Middle East to stop making public comments, so as not to undermine Donald Trump's pressure on Iran to give up its nuclear weapons capabilities.
On the night between Friday and Saturday, using social media, Trump announced that the US, in cooperation with Israel, was launching a "massive operation" to end Iran as a threat and called for regime change. In an eight-minute speech, he stated that "Iran will never have nuclear weapons", and that the aim of the attack is "to defend the American people by eliminating the direct threats of the Iranian regime, a vicious group of very tough, horrible people" whose "activities directly threaten the USA". Trump made several false claims while explaining that the US had no choice but to attack, as the Iranian regime "will not give us what we have to have." Directly addressing the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other armed forces of Iran, he urged them to lay down their arms: "You will receive complete immunity or you will face certain death." And to the "great, proud people of Iran" he said that "tonight the hour of freedom is near... when we are done, take over your government. It will be yours."
As key military objectives, Trump listed the same ones that Netanyahu listed a few weeks earlier. He added only the destruction of the Iranian Navy.
photo: ap…and bombs on Tehran
THE EPIC RAGE OF THE ROARING LION
Operations "Epic Rage" (USA) and "Roaring Lion" (Israel) began on Saturday, around 7 am local time. Unlike the attack on Iran's nuclear facilities last year, the primary goal of these operations is the destruction of Iran's religio-political leadership. The "New York Times" writes that the CIA has been monitoring and identifying the locations and movement patterns of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for months. The agency learned that the Ayatollah will hold a meeting of high officials in his office on Saturday morning, and based on that knowledge, Israel, two hours after the start of the operation, fired 30 bunker buster bombs at a building in Tehran.
photo: apMOURNING FOR THE MURDER: Ayatollah Khamenei
The White House and the CIA refused to comment on this media's allegations that the success of the operation was the result of their months-long preparations and good US intelligence. On the other hand, the "Guardian" writes that the Israeli defense spokesman said that the military campaign used an "operational opportunity", but that the planning and lobbying of the Israeli prime minister lasted for months. In addition to Ayatollah Khamenei, more than forty Iranian leaders from the ranks of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Supreme National Security Council, the Ministry of Defense and others were killed in the attack.
Over the weekend, Israel proudly announced that it had carried out the largest military operation in its history: in the first 24 hours, over 200 fighter jets were engaged, more than 1200 missiles were launched, and 500 military facilities were successfully hit. For its part, the US announced on Monday evening that its military had carried out attacks on over 1250 targets, including command centers, key headquarters of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, integrated air defense systems, ballistic missile sites, ships and submarines, anti-ship missile sites, military communications capabilities...
In response to the attacks, Iran fired a barrage of missiles and drones at Israel and the countries of the Persian Gulf where the US air bases are located - Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. Tehran targeted an oil refinery in Saudi Arabia and an energy facility in Qatar, halting production of liquefied natural gas. Iranian forces also attacked US ships, but without success. Moreover, they lost eleven of their vessels. Qatar shot down several Iranian planes, but also three American ones - by mistake.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard has announced that it will set fire to any ship that approaches the Strait of Hormuz. This strait connects the largest oil producers in the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Information from Tuesday indicated that the strait through which about a fifth of the world's total oil trade passes is still not closed. With five commercial ships damaged in the fighting so far, more than 150 of them are anchored in the Gulf of Oman and waiting, costing the world economy millions of dollars.
photo: apVICTIMS OF THE WAR: A school was hit where 160 girls died
On Tuesday morning, Iran's Red Crescent announced that at least 787 people had been killed, including more than 165 girls, mostly between the ages of 7 and 12. The Norwegian organization "Hengav" announced that the number of victims on the third day reached at least 1500, including 200 civilians and 1300 members of the Iranian forces. The US announced that six of its soldiers were killed in the actions, and 18 were seriously wounded.
CONFLICT SPILLAGE
photo: apTehran
Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian condemned the killing of the supreme leader as a "great crime" and promised a response. "This great crime will never go unanswered and will turn a new page in the history of the Islamic world and Shiism. The pure blood of this great leader will flow like a roaring stream and eradicate American-Zionist oppression and crimes," the statement said, according to Al Jazeera.
This statement was a call for protest and retaliation. Iran knows it cannot defeat the US and Israel in a war, but by bringing the region into crisis, it will put pressure on the Trump administration at home and abroad. This is why the "Axis of Resistance", a network of regional actors ready to avenge the death of the supreme leader and the violation of Iranian sovereignty, was mobilized. Despite a weakened Iran, its supporters in the region responded to the call. On Monday, Hezbollah from Lebanon attacked northern Israel with a large number of rockets. In Iraq, a pro-Iranian militia attacked American forces in Harir and Erbil International Airport. In Yemen, the Houthis continued their naval attacks in the Red Sea, and the US embassy in Kuwait and the British air base in Cyprus were attacked.
Their efforts are limited and will be further weakened with the "broad wave of strikes" by the undisputedly superior Israel on Hezbollah and Iran. As Israel ordered the evacuation of southern Lebanon, more than 29.000 people were displaced into shelters in anticipation of a ground invasion.
The countries of the region warned about this spillover of the conflict in the previous months. Apart from the destabilization of countries that pride themselves on being a safe haven in a turbulent region, and whose civilian airports and hotels have become targets, the economic consequences (prices of oil, natural gas and gold are rising) are more important for the US, which will negatively affect the American market. According to the latest research by "Ipsos", only 39 percent of citizens support Trump. His insistence on not dragging the US into new wars is now in question - he said on Monday that Operation Epic Rage could last more than five weeks and refused to rule out sending US troops to the region. Coupled with the fallout from the Epstein dossier, the ICE crackdown, and the murders in Minneapolis, it's clear that this is going to be a tough election year for Republicans. When it comes to Israel, Netanyahu enjoys support, and by expanding the conflict, he will certainly use the opportunity to inflict as much damage as possible on his opponents, expand and strengthen his sphere of influence, and secure another prime ministerial mandate in the elections in October.
In Pakistan, during the protest, in the conflict between the police and pro-Iranian demonstrators, at least 24 people were killed, and a three-day curfew was declared in some parts. In Iraq, hundreds of pro-Iranian demonstrators tried to reach the US embassy, for which tear gas and rubber bullets were used, and the police reacted similarly in Kashmir. Protests were held in Turkey, India and Bangladesh condemning the attack on Iran and the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei. Smaller anti-war protests were recorded in Greece and Great Britain.
REACTIONS TO THE ATTACK
As expected, the leaders of the EU and Western countries are calling for restraint and diplomacy, and an emergency session of the UN Security Council was convened on Saturday. Germany, unlike France and Britain, was informed in advance about the attacks, which indicates a change in US relations with the European Troika. Great Britain and France condemned the policy and nuclear ambitions of Iran, and called for an end to the attacks and said that Iran "must understand that it now has no other option but to engage in negotiations on its nuclear program in good faith." The three countries also published a joint statement in which they call for the continuation of negotiations, and that, "after all, the Iranian people must be allowed to decide on their future."
In his address, Prime Minister Starmer added that Britain was not involved in the initial attacks and that "it will not join the offensive action", although it will allow the US to use British bases for "defensive" attacks on Iran, which did not save him from Trump's criticism. At the same time, the Prime Minister of Spain Pedro Sánchez strictly refused to make the Spanish bases available to the US, which is why, reports "Reuters", fifteen American planes left the military bases "Rota" and "Moron" in the south of Spain. A few are known to have landed in Germany.
From the EU, similar messages are coming from Kaya Callas, High Representative for Foreign Policy and Security, and Ursula von der Leyen. Calling for restraint, protection of civilians and full respect for international law, the EU will continue to contribute to diplomatic efforts aimed at reducing tensions and achieving a lasting solution to prevent Iran from possessing nuclear weapons.
American Senator Lindsey Graham, a foreign policy adviser who is often called "Trump's whisperer" because of the influence he has on the US president, described the messages from Europe as "pathetically weak" and "a huge disappointment." He accused all those who did not directly support the USA of hypocrisy because they help the Ukrainian people and "refuse to help the Iranian people". Negotiations with Iran, although on Sunday Trump himself indicated that he is ready to negotiate with them, Graham calls them negotiations with "religious Nazis" and "fanatics". He called the current Spanish government "the gold standard of pathetically weak European leadership", a government that "has lost its moral way" and that "history will record where Spain was" while the US tried to remove the Iranian regime.
What his reactions were to Russia's response, if any, is unknown, but as reported by the Russian TASS, President Vladimir Putin called the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei "a cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law." Russia, Iran's long-time ally, announced that on Saturday morning, after the deadly attack, Abbas Aragchi, Iran's foreign minister, called his counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, and that Lavrov expressed sympathy for Iran and promised verbal support.
"Politico" estimates that this reaction indicates a gap between Russia's anti-Western rhetoric and actual military support for allies. Iran provided drones and missiles to Russia, and a strategic partnership agreement was signed in April 2025, from which Moscow excluded clauses on mutual defense, explaining that a "military alliance" was not being established. During the attack on Iran in June 2025, Putin defended Russia's neutral position by saying that almost two million former Soviet citizens live in Israel, which "almost makes it a Russian-speaking area", but there is also the desire to avoid a direct confrontation with the US, and to save resources for the war in Ukraine.
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on social media that Beijing was "very concerned" about the strike and that "Iran's sovereignty, security and territorial integrity should be respected", and Cuba was the loudest, calling the attack on Iran a flagrant violation of international law and the UN Charter.
Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in a joint statement condemned Iran's "indiscriminate and reckless missile and drone attacks" as a "dangerous escalation" that violated the sovereignty of states and endangered civilians. Many of them, including Jordan and Saudi Arabia, have denied the US overflight rights to attack Iran. Trump announced that in the coming period, some of them may change their positions and join the US and Israel in attacking Iran.
Lebanese leaders have called for the protection of civilians and expressed concern over Hezbollah's response, rightly so given that the conflict spilled over into the country over the weekend.
Canada supported the attack on Iran, as did Australia, which believes Tehran is behind two recent terrorist attacks in that country.
photo: apHOW LONG WILL THE WAR LAST AND WHERE WILL IT END: Arming American planes
ILLEGALITY OF THE COUP
In the US, Democrats sharply criticized the attack on Iran, calling it illegal. Republicans and the White House argue that the president acted lawfully to protect U.S. forces and allies and was exercising executive authority to act quickly because lives were at risk. The U.S. Constitution gives Congress, not the president, the power "to declare war," while the War Powers Act invoked by Trump requires consultation "in every possible case" and limits unilateral hostilities to a period of 60 days, unless Congress approves a continuation.
The most significant thing about the Trump administration's argument for war with Iran so far - the existence of an immediate threat - is that it does not exist, Politico writes. Indeed, Trump announced that the Iranian regime "directly threatens" the US, but did not give a specific example. What he repeatedly mentions is the "dangerous" nuclear weapons program - the same one he dramatically announced had been "totally destroyed" (obliterated) in June 2025. Reports indicate that after the attack, most of Iran's uranium remained under the rubble.
In the end, the argument that Iran represents an immediate, direct threat to the US was challenged by the events of Friday: based on official and media reports, Iran lost the entire first echelon of leadership in three days, the losses reflect the complete collapse of Iran's integrated defense network, the launch systems for ballistic missiles were "halved", air defenses were neutralized, and Iran lost more than eight ships at sea... At the same time, a large number of radar stations were destroyed, which is "blindsided" the remaining Iranian forces. The question is whether Iran really posed a direct threat to the US on Friday, February 28.
It seems unlikely that Iran outsmarted the CIA and Mossad into convincing them of its great power. Journalists are already asking, following that logic, why Iran was attacked and not North Korea, which has expanded its nuclear arsenal to 60 warheads and which, according to CIA estimates, is working to ensure that they can reach US territory? Some see the reason for the attack precisely in the fact that the US and Israel knew that Iran was weakened after years of sanctions, especially after last year's war and mass January protests, and that they now have the best chance for a quick victory. At the same time, as reported by the "New York Times", the attack was planned for months, and the plan was changed when the CIA reported that a meeting of the top of the state was planned for Saturday morning.
On Monday night, Marco Rubio came out with a new version - the US attacked Iran "preemptively", after learning that Israel was going to attack Iran: "There was absolutely an imminent threat. We knew that Israel was going to carry out an operation. We knew that it would provoke an attack on American forces. If we had not reacted preemptively against them before they launched those attacks, we would have had more casualties. This had to happen, no matter what."
The statement sparked a firestorm of criticism because it implied that the US had allowed Israel to essentially drag it into a new war. Mark Warner, Democratic Vice Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, after a special briefing by administration officials on the decision to attack Iran, told the media that "there was no immediate threat from Iran to the United States of America. There was a threat to Israel. If we equate the threat to Israel with the immediate threat to the US, we are entering unknown territory."
Rubio also said that "the heaviest blows of the US army are yet to come", and US citizens who are in the region are invited to leave it as soon as possible. Hundreds of thousands of passengers are already trapped in the Persian Gulf countries.
photo: apWHO ACTUALLY DECIDED TO GO TO IRAN: B. Netanyahu and D. Trump
TRUMP AND NETANYAHU - A THREAT TO GLOBAL STABILITY
During the emergency session of the Security Council, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres confirmed that the US and Israel violated international law and the UN Charter, and emphasized that the use of force against the territorial integrity of any state is illegal. The pressure of the international community is primarily on Iran, and the absence of a clear condemnation of the illegal actions of the USA and Israel is noticeable. That condemnation is important because they are another precedent that, together with other illegal actions by these states, represents an increasing threat to global stability.
The organization ACLED, which monitors armed conflicts around the world, explained to Al Jazeera that since January 2025, the US has been involved in approximately 622 bombing attacks abroad, including in Iran, Venezuela, Yemen, Somalia, Syria, Nigeria and Iraq. Israel has been known for decades for killings on foreign territories, and until Saturday the most drastic example was the attack on the Hamas negotiating team in September 2025. Then a building in a residential area of Doha, Qatar, traditionally a safe neutral country and host to many negotiations, was targeted. Although Khalil al-Haya, the main target of the strike, survived, there were six casualties, and Israel claimed that it was exercising its right of self-defense. The world's reaction to the murders of members of the negotiating team in a safe country was not strong enough to stop the unlawful killing of Iran's supreme leader and his closest associates. During a press conference on Sunday, German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz said that questions about whether the US-Israeli military action in Iran is in accordance with international law "are not appropriate at this stage. Now is not the time to lecture our partners and allies - despite our doubts, we share many of their goals, which we are unable to achieve on our own." The support that the US and Israel are getting so far, as well as the fact that the regime in Iran is brutal and sponsors terrorism and kills its youth, does not make this attack any less illegal, and its impunity certainly does not promise peace.
During this time, there is a mixture of fear and hope on the streets of Iran. Media reports that citizens of certain parts of Iran have received messages from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that any public movement or presence on the streets will be considered "direct cooperation with the enemy", in order to prevent "terrorist actions and street riots" which they claim are the next steps in the "enemy's plan". Internet is limited. During the weekend, as the "Guardian" reports, in some cities of this great country, entire families went out on the terraces to celebrate the end of the dictatorship, and people gathered in the squares and offered tea to each other. But many Iranians remain fearful after more than three decades of strict dictatorship and a deadly crackdown on anti-government protests.
In accordance with the law of the Islamic Republic, a three-member council was formed over the weekend to govern Iran and temporarily assume the duties of the supreme leader. It consists of Iran's reformist President Massoud Pezeshkian, hardline justice chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei and lawyer Alireza Arafi, a member of Iran's Guardian Council and leader of the Basij, a volunteer paramilitary force. The 88-member panel needs to select a new supreme leader as soon as possible, who must be a political and religious authority.
Thousands of those who gathered in the center of the Iranian capital mourned Khamenei's death, cursing "the Zionist regime and Trump." Atusa Mirzadeh, a teacher from Shiraz, explained to a Reuters reporter that she cannot say she is happy because foreign forces killed Ayatollah Khamenei and added: "I also cannot be happy because I do not know what will happen to our country. We have seen what happened in Iraq - chaos and bloodshed. I would prefer the Islamic Republic to something like that happening here."
