Pro-government tabloids Aleksandar Vučić they again "had an insight" into the results of the new research Ipsos agencies for October. According to the publication, the list of the Serbian Progressive Party has 49,1 percent of support, while the Student List has the trust of only 9,2 percent of citizens.
Apparently, the Socialist Party of Serbia (4,7), the Democratic Party (4,4) would pass the census; We People's Power (3,4) and New DSS (3,1).
However, Ipsos again did not release the results. Until the publication of this text, we were unable to obtain confirmation of the authenticity of the research from this agency.
That, if it is authentic, stands in opposition to the researches of the New Serbian Political Thought, Sprint Insight and Crta agencies, which all, in one way or another, note that the (still non-existent) Student List is significantly ahead of the (also still non-existent) list of the ruling party.
Political scientist Dejan Bursać tells "Vreme" that "methodological manipulation" is involved. This, he adds, has been clear since June, when the tabloids published the first alleged Ipsos survey in which students were found to be a factor.
"Different options were listed, and then under the option 'other or someone else', which is the 20th or 30th position, it was offered that people could possibly enter the student list themselves. That finding was presented as valid," recalls Bursać.
All this, adds the political scientist, to demonstrate the alleged supremacy of the SNS over the student movement.
Then why doesn't he call for elections?
The elections are not yet in sight. Apart from the authoritative announcements by President Vučić that they will take place next year - and there is speculation about various dates, from April to the very end of the year - it is unclear when the elections will take place. Nor who and in how many columns will participate with them.
That is why, says Bursać, a question arises that may confuse the voters of Naprednjak. If they are at least 50 percent, why don't they call elections and solve the crisis?
"So, the numbers in reality certainly don't look like that," emphasizes the interlocutor of "Vremen".
Another reality
Research conducted by Crta in September shows that 44 percent of citizens would vote for the student list, while 32 percent of citizens would support Vučić. In that research, only those two options were offered, although it is clear that there will be others in the elections.
Almost two-thirds of citizens see the calling of early elections as a way to get out of the crisis. And almost every third voter of the party in power believes that elections should be called, this research shows.
"We have seen several studies that show Vučić does not have an advantage," says Bursać. "It is a very important question whether you think the country is going in the right direction. According to a series of studies, all these parameters are very bad for Vučić."
Who should citizens trust?
When asked, which research should citizens believe, Bursać says that it is like in a supermarket - citizens believe in accordance with their own political convictions.
"Citizens who are for change, who are against the regime, I assume believe independent research. Those who are SNS voters, I am sure believe the research that is marketed to them through the media they consume," Bursać points out.
Such people then have a problem with cognitive dissonance, says Bursać. "They are given information that the SNS is definitely winning, and the political reality says that the SNS is running away from the elections. With such an approach, you are creating a problem with your own voters."
So far, SNS has gone to extraordinary parliamentary elections four times, Bursać reminds, and concludes: "It is a party that has a huge electoral machinery at its disposal - activists, money, media, favor of institutions. They do not call elections in this crisis because they are not sure that they can win. Therefore, they know that the numbers are not in their favor."
