President of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić he stated that he could be prime minister, but that he needs public support, whatever that means, and "Vremen" interlocutors agree that it is quite certain that he will run for president Vlade.
Since Vučić pointed out that he will not change Constitution of Serbia in order to enable him to possibly win the presidential mandate for the third time, the question arises as to who would be his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) could run in the upcoming presidential elections, considering that in that party, thanks to Vučić's style of government, there is no one prominent enough to be the new "protecting face" of the progressives who would win the hearts and votes of the citizens of Serbia.
That is why simultaneous holding of presidential and parliamentary elections appears as a possible scenario.
What are the deadlines for the elections?
The Law on the Election of the President of Serbia states that the President of Serbia is elected for a term of five years, and that the elections for the President of Serbia are announced 90 days before the end of the mandate, and that they must be completed within 60 days from the date of announcing the election. Vučić's second term began on May 31, 2022, which means that the next presidential elections would have to be called no later than the end of February 2027, or in that case they would have to be held no later than the end of April of that year.
The last extraordinary parliamentary elections were held on December 17, 2023. According to the Constitution of Serbia, the mandate of the National Assembly lasts four years from the date of confirmation of the mandate of the deputies. Given that, the legal deadline for holding the next regular elections is the beginning of 2028, but political announcements have mentioned that they will be held earlier, potentially in a package with the 2027 presidential elections.
Announcements about simultaneous elections in order to confuse the public
Professor at Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade Nebojša Vladisavljević says that Vučić will run for prime minister, because he obviously wants to stay in power.
"Vučić will simply be the holder of the list, as before, so nothing important will change in the parliamentary elections. If the SNS wins those elections, it is obvious that no one else can lead the Government of Serbia except him," says Vladisavljević.
He adds that if SNS wants to benefit from the joint holding of presidential and parliamentary elections, that party would have to have a popular personality as its candidate for president of Serbia.
"Such a personality certainly does not exist in the SNS, so it is possible that they will find some popular personality outside of political life, in order to transfer that personal popularity to the SNS", Vladisavljević believes.
He reminds that Vučić announced that there is a possibility that the presidential and parliamentary elections will be held on the same day and states that in that case those elections would be held next year, not in 2027.
"However, such announcements in this situation look more like confusing the public, especially the opposition, since the opposition, in the broadest sense, is therefore also students, asked for parliamentary elections, and no one asked for presidential elections. It seems to me like throwing a bone into the discussion in order to create a commotion and divert attention, as has been done in the past months," says Vladisavljavić.
For the SNS, it is better for the elections to be held as soon as possible
According to his opinion, the government has not decided when the elections will be held, nor whether they will be held simultaneously.
"They are probably waiting for a more favorable development of events, for something big to happen internationally that would make it easier for them to suppress the opposition or hope for divisions in the opposition. It seems to me that the longer they delay the elections, the worse they will do. This can be seen from public opinion surveys in the past year, which show a downward trend, in a relative sense, in the relationship between the government and the opposition," says Vladisavljević.
He states that there is a "great rise of the opposition on a broad front in the past year", but that there is a lack of a definitive organizational link, although he believes that this will probably happen at some point.
"The more they delay the elections, the worse it will be for them, and if they do poorly in those elections, it will be the definitive end of the SNS. It is best for them to call the elections now, because even if they lose - there will be a strong opposition, and if they wait longer, their defeat will probably be catastrophic," says Vladisavljević.
Differences in relation to Orban and Erdogan
He states that Vučić's statement that the Constitution will not be changed makes sense, but "not because he wants to protect the democratic practice that limits the president to two terms, but because experience shows that the SNS rules exclusively informally."
"Until now, they have not ruled through restrictive laws. If you compare similar regimes, Orban's in Hungary or Erdoğan in Turkey, you will see that their power rests precisely on the adoption of restrictive laws and changes to the constitution in order to give the ruling party a great advantage over the opposition. The government in Serbia has not done this until now, but rules exclusively informally, with personal control of institutions and selective application of the law," says Vladisavljević.
He concludes that based on that history, it seems logical that Vučić will not change the Constitution, because it causes a lot of attention from the international public and indicates a direct violation of democratic procedures.
SNS does not have the power to change the Constitution.
Professor Bojan Vranić of the Faculty of Political Sciences tells Vreme that it is not important whether Vučić is or is not ready to change the Constitution of Serbia, because the current arrangement of forces in Assembly of Serbia is such that it would be very difficult.
He states that with all minorities, SPS and some "fugitive deputies"; SNS has about 150 parliamentary votes.
"In order to change the Constitution, you need at least 167 votes of deputies, which would mean that someone from the opposition would have to 'resign', which would be very difficult to do at the moment, because nobody wants to gamble with their future so that Aleksandar Vučić could be president for the third time. In addition, a referendum would have to be held," says Vranić.
Therefore, Vranić emphasizes that the procedure for changing the Constitution would be very complicated, difficult and would require a lot of political capital "which the SNS does not currently have".
He also reminds that after the 2020 elections, due to the boycott of the opposition, the SNS had an absolute majority in the parliament, but that they did not change the Constitution then, even though they could.
Vučić Prime Minister - only formalization of the existing situation
Speaking about the possibility of Vučić running for prime minister, Vranić emphasizes that according to the Constitution, the Prime Minister is the legal holder of supreme power and that Vučić "would only formalize what he currently has if he sat in the Prime Minister's chair."
When it comes to the future candidate of the SNS for the president of Serbia, he points out that the SNS does not need to have any particularly charismatic candidate, because it has a "loyal electorate".
"That electorate may not be the happiest with the choice of that candidate, but if SNS does a good campaign and Vučić calls for voting, they will vote, maybe with a heavy heart, but they will vote, and the voter turnout will therefore not be large," says Vranić.
Vučić's calculations
He believes that the current goal of SNS is not to further antagonize abstainers.
"That is why it is important for the SNS that their candidate for the president of Serbia is not someone who will further annoy the abstainers, who would then say that 'it's really enough now', and because of which they would vote for anyone in the presidential elections, but against the candidate of the SNS. Of course, the goal of the SNS is not to go to the second round of the presidential elections, because in that case it could be inconvenient," says Vranić.
Vranić views Vučić's statement that, depending on the political situation and public support, he will consider running for prime minister as a "calculation".
"That support can mean that a part of the intellectual elite activates and creates a public discourse that we want Vučić as Prime Minister," says Vranić.
He states that another factor that could influence the date of the parliamentary elections is that the SNS is waiting to see how it will fare in the local elections in May.
That's why he says that it is possible, if the results of the SNS are solid in those elections, that the announcement of the parliamentary elections will be delayed.
