Belgrade is currently facing two major challenges that call into question the quality of life in the future.
First of all, Belgrade bears the epithet of "the largest European construction site". According to the "Center for Experiments and Urban Studies" (CEUS), a professional association of architects and urban planners from Belgrade, from 2016 to 2020, the number of apartments built per year increased by 70 percent, and the number of square meters of high-rise buildings built per year increased by as much as 350 percent, the portal writes Climate 101.
Greenery deficit
Construction is most intense in the territorially smallest, central city municipalities: in Vračar, Savski Venec and Stari Grad, where the existing density of construction is high, and where green areas are insufficiently represented and unevenly distributed, and vulnerability to the consequences of climate change is significant.
The central city area is markedly deficient in greenery. As stated in the Plan for the General Regulation of Belgrade's Green Area System, which was adopted in 2019, in the capital, public greenery (without forests) makes up only 2,83 percent of the total area of the city, which is far below the European average.
Another challenge is the change in the city's microclimate under the influence of climate change, and unfavorable thermal comfort.
Belgrade climate
Research by domestic scientists shows that Belgrade's climate has changed significantly over the last half century. Average annual temperature in Belgrade for the period 1941-1990. it was 11,9°C. After 1990, and especially after the 2000s, a significant increase was noted not only in the average daily temperature, but also in its minimum and maximum values. This is the case in the period 1991-2020. the mean annual temperature was 13,2°C.
When we combine the temperature trends and the change in the way land is used in Belgrade (more concrete, less greenery), and we also take into account that other environmental parameters such as air humidity also change as a result of these two, as a result we get a significantly changed thermal comfort.
Thermal comfort and what is it?
Thermal comfort, we remind you, is "a state of mind that expresses (dis)satisfaction with the thermal environment", and it greatly affects the quality of life and public health of citizens. What is the actual thermal comfort of our capital?
Different indices are used to assess thermal comfort, which combine several meteorological and physiological parameters, one of the most widely used in Europe being the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI).
It is expressed in equivalent temperature (in degrees Celsius), in which, in addition to air temperature, data such as air humidity, wind speed and solar radiation are included according to special methodologies.
What do the data for Belgrade say? If we look at the results of the UTCI index for the period 1991-2020. year, we can notice not only that the value of the index is growing, but also that 4 of the 5 years with the highest annual values of this index were recorded in the period 2015-2020.
The increase in the value of the index means that thermal discomfort when staying outdoors is more frequent, both in the morning and in the evening, and of course in the midday and afternoon, especially during the summer months, when the highest values are recorded.
Somewhere we already subjectively feel that there are fewer and fewer pleasant summer mornings and evenings, and more and more tropical nights, which is also confirmed by the data for minimum daily equivalent temperatures.
Thermal (dis)comforts
Summers in Belgrade prove to be the most unfavorable in terms of thermal discomfort, especially in July and August, where in recent years (2015-2020) an increasing number of days have been recorded when the combination of meteorological parameters and local environmental conditions result in the highest categories of thermal stress: strong, very strong and extreme heat stress that cause the strongest physiological response, and significantly exhaust our bodies.
In such situations, the appearance of health risks is more frequent: e.g. rash, convulsions, fatigue accompanied by nausea, dizziness, sudden rise in body temperature and possibly the most severe condition heat stroke, even death, especially among children, elderly people and chronically ill people, pregnant women and workers who perform strenuous physical work outdoors (such as workers in construction, energy, mining).
The maximum values of summer thermal (un)comfort in Belgrade during the period 1991-2020 grew at the rate of 0.068°C per year, while for the minimum values the trend is 0.081°C per year.
All this indicates that the thermal comfort in the Serbian capital will be even less favorable in the years to come, as well as that if adaptation and mitigation measures to climate change are not more actively implemented in the near future, the public health of the citizens of Belgrade will be under serious threat.
Text taken from the portal Climate 101.
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