Bizarre political ritual - the president of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić hint at when they might be elections, and then everyone analyzes it - it continues after Vučić's latest statement that first there will be parliamentary and then presidential elections.
"Most likely," Vučić said on RTS on Wednesday (July 8), the elections will be split. As he stated, the decision to call the elections will be made in August or September, so the elections can be held in October or November.
"Most likely first the parliamentary one, then the presidential one and that's how things go," said Vučić.
Maybe he's not lying this time.
There is always a problem with analysis that Vučić has announced "decisions" and dates many times, so those dates have passed, and "decisions" have not been made.
However, in the case of the timing of the election, he has both a knife and a cake, and there are already other indicators that the vote could really take place in the fall. Because, apart from his resignation, Vučić again announced giving money from the state budget, which he always does before elections.
He didn't say which money and for whom, which means polls and focus groups will decide, although the first pick is always pensioners, Vučić's most loyal electorate.
How could it all play out?
The law says that the President of the Republic must submit a "reasoned" resignation and that explanation will be hilarious. Because, Vučić is actually leaving Andrić's wreath to return to Nemanjina 11 and extend his power, but there is no doubt that he will cite some supposedly great state reasons in the "reasoning".
The position of the president in an emergency would be filled by the president of the Assembly, Ana Brnabić, who must then call new presidential elections so that they are held in 90 days at the latest.
Parliamentary elections, once announced, must be held in 45 to 60 days.
So, it would go like this: Vučić resigns at the end of the summer and immediately takes over the campaign of the Serbian Progressive Party, whose candidate for prime minister. Voting takes place in about two months, and only about a month later - you go to the polls again in the presidential elections.
Why exactly like this?
In the political bazaar, some thought that it could be the other way around - that Vučić would rather go to the presidential elections, sending some of his puppets into the race. Well, even if he loses them, he can still hold the leadership of the Government, which he would "reconstruct" so that he succeeds Đur Matsuto and so on until after the Expo.
Or to hold both elections at the same time (which, it seems, he is still considering) so that he, Vučić, as the campaign's draft horse, would also withdraw his presidential candidate, given that he cannot invent someone popular enough to win without that help.
However, the third scenario predicted by political scientist Aleksandar Ivković in an interview for the last issue of "Vremena" will appear:
"The strategy that makes the most sense from the government's perspective is to hold parliamentary elections before the presidential elections, try to win them and then possibly demoralize opposition supporters and increase their chances in the presidential elections as well."
That is, Vučić would throw all his cards at the parliamentary elections and there is no doubt that the SNS voting and beating machinery would have to "shine" like never before.
If he wins those elections and buys himself four more years of power, the importance of the presidential elections, which were previously crucial in Serbia, would completely decline. Because, it is unlikely that the opposition public would be maximally mobilized to elect "their" president who, with Vučić as prime minister, would objectively be ikebana as the Constitution foresees.
The "opposition president" could, admittedly, be a bone in the throat of the authorities, but without access to the media, it would only be to some extent.
According to Ivković, even the ruling group does not yet know whether they will really hold all the announced elections by the end of the year: "All the research we have seen so far indicates that for the first time there is a possibility that the ruling coalition will not win a majority in the parliament, and the decision will probably be made in the coming months, depending on the constant measurement of ratings and the positioning of the opposing party."
Opponents of the government in the news
The rapid conduct of parliamentary and presidential elections would have the same effect for the opponents of the government as if the elections had been combined. Namely, they would have to decide at the same time how and with which candidates they will go to both the one and the other elections.
There is no doubt that Aleksandar Vučić's greatest hope lies there - that on the line between the student movement and the opposition, the taunts and blows below the belt will continue, and that the fragmentation of the "column" will not be strategic and logical, but elemental, so that the voices will disperse.
And that the opposition side will have more presidential candidates who signal irreconcilability from the beginning, thus contributing to the impression that there are some quarreling ignoramuses and "traitors" who just want to overthrow the government, and will bring "chaos". And, more importantly, demotivating the opposition electorate.
Vučić's dream - to remain in power forever - would thus get the wind at his back.
Although it is possible that Vučić's sorcerers for public opinion will once again judge that quick elections are not smart (as they concluded for the summer elections for which trial balloons were released), the anti-regime bazaar really only has one more small chance to somehow come to an agreement, if they are going to come to an agreement.
There is time left for that until the middle of August, which is vacation time and rarely the time for deals.
If there is still not a little more goodwill, then it will remain that the Student Movement will dictate the pace, and the others will follow suit - either with support, or as complements or as rivals. At the same time, it is necessary to technically prepare for the elections, plan the military control of the polling stations and the campaign.
Be that as it may, opponents of the government have a solid chance to finally see Vučić's back and start doing what they promised - the creation of a fairer country. But they also have solid chances to blow their fight.
Real journalism costs money, and we will not be bought by tycoons and corporations. Support us with a one-time or monthly donation. The time for it is now!
