What will happen on March 15th?

After the march to Novi Sad, Kragujevac and Niš and imposing protests in those cities, students from Subotica, Niš, Kraljevo, Čačak, Užice, Kragujevac... headed towards Belgrade on foot where will it be March 15 hold the largest protest not only in this cycle of street protests, but in the modern history of Serbia.

At least those are the expectations. If there were 100.000 people in Slavia, how many will gather in Belgrade on Saturday?

High expectations are being created in the rebellious half of the divided society, although the students, who are the engine of everything, have not announced whether anything other than another gathering and demonstration of power is the goal of the latest scheduled mass meeting.

Certainly, the days are counting down until some kind of culmination of the protests that have been going on since the beginning of November last year, but will there be a resolution of the political crisis, at least partially, or some kind of catharsis among the participants and the audience? The insurgents expect or wish for the end of the progressive government, or the beginning of its end, and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić speaks of the beginning of the end of "illegal" protests "paid for and organized from abroad with the aim of collapsing Serbia."

The opposition, rightfully so, is silent about its plans for "D-Day", as dramatically announced by the regime media on March 15, because no one asks it about anything.

Vučić puts out the fire

Students scattered all over Serbia. They spread the news that there is an ongoing rebellion against the corrupt government, a protest for law and justice, everywhere they are greeted by excited and touched citizens who receive an invitation to join them in Belgrade on Saturday. More and more often in villages, towns and smaller cities, the hitherto ignorant and uninformed population is rising up against the progressive local kabadashis. A modern revolt against modern dahis is spreading.

The regime of Aleksandar Vučić has not found an answer to this threat for almost four and a half months. No matter how much they bury their heads in the sand, no matter how much the regime media spread the image of a handful of mercenaries on whom a miserable number of people have settled, no matter how much the president of the state of Busa claims to have defeated the "colored revolution", which, by the way, he invented, and that the protests have started to fall, those representatives of the authorities who make decisions know very well that the rebellion is spreading and that the ground is shaking well under their feet.

Almost nothing they have in mind lately goes unopposed.

As usual, the most active is Vučić, who does what he does best - tirelessly rallying around Serbia and spreading lies in front of people drawn in from all sides, who fill the squares and halls as extras in the broadcast of all televisions with a national frequency. He is thus trying, rather ineffectively, to put out the fire, which is no longer smoldering, but has flared up and threatens to turn into an all-out fire.

Which move leads to victory?

One gets the impression that both sides do not know what to do next.

On the side of the rebel students and citizens, the last moves that could turn the current big advantage into a victory are still not visible. No one here is calling for any violence, incursions into state institutions, let alone a violent takeover of power. On the contrary.

There have been two attempts to call for a general strike that would bring the country to a standstill, but both times the action turned into another in a series of protest activities far from a mass work stoppage that could substantially increase pressure on the government.

At this moment, it seems that the students have no other idea than to continue with what they have been doing successfully and without any visible fatigue for months. It's just that it can't be done forever, if the protests become an end in themselves, when will they start to fall off.

Emergency option

Neither Vučić nor his people know what to do. Whatever they tried to go from defensive to offensive backfired. And they can no longer allow themselves to wait for this wave of protests to fizzle out, as it has been the case until now, because not only is it not abating, but it is spreading day by day.

Certainly, the option of introducing a state of emergency or banning protests on March 15 is on the table of the progressive strategists because of this, in order not to break this thing that is bit by bit chipping away at their control over the country. Various gatherings with much less potential to threaten public safety have been banned until now.

If the number of people is what is expected to be, even if all of them peacefully go home after that, or to the blocked faculties, the image will remain that the Serbian autocrat no longer holds the power in his hands. That is why the controlled media spread the fear of riots in the hope that it will scare people and deter them from participating in the protest in Belgrade.

The option of a state of emergency and taking the army to the streets is certainly high-risk, especially for the representatives of the authorities: what if the students are not afraid, blow off the "incompetent" and still take to the streets? In that case, the authority of Vučić drops to zero. And how would the members of the special units of the army and the police react if they were sent to attack children?

Causing conflict and chaos

Everything that is happening in Serbia right now is causing uneasy memories of the Fifth of October among former radicals and socialists. And the tractors of farmers announcing their arrival in Belgrade are ominously reminiscent of Velje Ilic's excavators from Čačan. Fear has crept in among rulers accustomed to inviolability, because of which it seems that their power of judgment has weakened.

Therefore, the possibility that "intruded elements" cause conflicts and violence, that fake students in a riot attack fake students in Pionirski Park, or someone else, that they start demolishing and burning, and then that the Special Police Unit and the Gendarmerie are brought out to bring order and peace in the capital of Serbia to the relief of frightened citizens, cannot be ruled out. The scenario has already been seen, completely in the spirit of the character of this government, for which Vučić makes a big alibi.

A crowd of 50.000, 100.000 or more people, however, is extremely unpredictable. On March 15, students and pensioners, both left and right, pigeons and hawks, orderlies and provocateurs, Kuso and Repato, Gandhis and anarchists, both faith and unbelief, will gather in Belgrade.

In the largest number, of course, "normal" citizens who can no longer stand this arrogant and corrupt government and the aggression of the president who demonstrates every day on all televisions how he violates the laws and the Constitution of Serbia, inciting people and nations against each other. Until the beginning of the student protests, it could be said that in Serbia there are big eyes in solidarity, however, courage is back in fashion.

As a bulwark in front of the fortress that will be under siege, Vučić brought "students who want to learn" to Pionirski Park, in front of Andrić's Wreath. Dozens of tents have been pitched, the entire area between the Old Court and Knez Miloš, between the Presidency and Kralja Aleksandar Boulevard is surrounded by a metal fence. Police officers prevent "unauthorized" persons from entering the park. Some big men with big biceps and tattoos hang around the tent.

This camp in the heart of the city will be on March 15 as a quick response base, ideal for provoking conflict and violence, or staging an attack on innocent students who just want to go back to school. If so ordered. Maybe even a day earlier, to increase people's fear of participating in the mass demonstration planned for Saturday.

It can certainly be expected that the tension will increase in the coming days.