Serbia on the brink of a major security risk

Protests in Serbia, but also events in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo, nevertheless attracted the attention of international politics. After several months of ignoring the student and civil rebellion, some western politicians spoke out, who, among other things, provided support for the territorial integrity of BiH, but also some kind of cautious comments on the wave of discontent on the Serbian streets.

It seems to have become somewhat clear that support for the stabilocracy of Aleksandar Vučić is not too great a guarantee for regional stability, and now direct meetings of certain international officials with the President of Serbia are becoming more frequent. writes DW.

Serbia - factor of instability

The details of those meetings are generally not presented to the public, except for the usual phrases about the readiness to improve cooperation and support for peace, but it is certainly interesting that within a space of just a few weeks there was already a second conversation between NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and Aleksandar Vučić.

As Dušan Janjić from the Forum for Ethnic Relations assesses for DW, this is a sure sign that the first topic of the meeting is Serbia:

"It shows that Serbia is on the brink of a major security risk and that the behavior of the Serbian authorities contributes to that process, which also attracted the attention of NATO, because Serbia also has regional importance. The topic will probably be the use/non-use of sound weapons and that the authorities do everything to avoid armed conflicts with citizens. It seems to me that the warning to bring under control the paramilitary and parapolice forces, which are closely connected with organized crime and the drug business, is particularly important," says Janjić.

In this context, our interlocutor puts the fact that during the previous conversation with Vučić, the Secretary General of NATO drew attention to the resolution of the Banjska case:

"It is not only Serbia's international obligation. Disarming and bringing under control the so-called civil defense, which we see activated during the protest on March 15. The system of its management must be dismantled, and that system is located in Serbia," notes Janjić.

Diplomatic warning to Vučić

Aleksandar Vučić said from Brussels that he had discussed the behavior of KFOR and NATO in Kosovo, but also the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, with Marko Rute.

When it comes to the tense situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Dušan Janjić believes that Vučić received a "diplomatic warning that time has run out and that there is no more time for so-called double and triple games of support or non-support for Milorad Dodik. It is also a warning, and it falls under the authority of Rute, so that something like Banjska does not happen there. Serbia must show that it has clear political positions, and perhaps more than that, it must show that it has clear security mechanisms to reduce risks." Janjić draws attention.

European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos assessed the meeting in Brussels with Vučić as "constructive" and stated that "concrete steps on Serbia's path to the EU and the implementation of the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans were discussed." She also emphasized the "importance of civil society and independent media in that process."

Such a formulation will certainly not be met with enthusiasm by the Serbian public, as well as the previous modest statements of representatives of the European Union about the regime of Aleksandar Vučić. This will most likely only further deepen distrust towards the EU in Serbia.

Lost trust

However, Dušan Janjić draws attention to the fact that "first of all, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, came under fire for the statements of Martha Kos. We saw gratitude to those who allegedly protected the safety of all participants, and now we all know that they actually carried out an attack on citizens", notes Janjić.

Aleksandar Vučić, on the other hand, cannot say anything new about Serbia's progress in European integration, because they have almost completely stopped, adds Janjić and says that "the new fact is that no one trusts Vučić anymore. He may be able to try to form a new government that would be a little more pro-European and expert on paper, but the problem remains that no one in the international community trusts him. This doubt will exist until there is some kind of international investigation of what happened on March 15 in Belgrade", he believes. Janjic.

A new political player in Serbia - rebellious citizens

If we are already talking about parastate forces, during the protest on Saturday March 15, several hundred masked thugs were crowded into the so-called "park of students who want to learn". According to current testimonies, more serious conflicts were avoided with a bit of luck and a good protest security organization.

Although after the protest it seemed that the park was being abandoned, a new gathering is being organized in the Pioneer Park area in front of the Presidency of Serbia with tents that look like military and masked civilians who enforce some of their own rules for entering and moving through the park, with the police who are silent observers.

Dušan Janjić notes that in that park "people from Kosovo were abused, but we also saw a parade of Dodik's people, as well as people from Montenegro. It is good that there is a reaction now, if prevention has not already been done, in order to prevent Vučić from further destabilizing. At the same time, the international community must take into account that there is a new political and social player, and that is the rebellious citizens against Vučić. They currently have the greatest influence on the public and without them the situation will not return to relative normality," concludes the president of the Forum for Ethnic Relations.