That the announcements came true Aleksandar Vučić from the previous decade, Serbia would be a member today Of the European Union (EU), or at least it would be on its doorstep. Instead, twelve years after the start of the negotiations, the country is floundering.
Four years - zero open clusters. This is how Serbia's progress looks like EU from December 2021, when cluster four was opened.
Serbia remained at the same level in the negotiations even after December 2025, since, although some expected the opposite, cluster three was not opened to it. Thus, Serbia, which started negotiations on January 21, 2014, remains open on 22 out of 35 negotiation chapters, with only two temporarily closed. And those that open and close on the same day.
And how will it be in a year? Will 2026 bring a shift - the opening of a new cluster, the closing of another chapter, or will the result remain the same? "Vremen" interlocutors are not optimistic.
Current stagnation or pattern?
We are entering 2026 after another in a series of missed years, and it can no longer be called "current stagnation" but a pattern, believes Dragana Đurica, general secretary of the European Movement in Serbia (EPuS).
"We've been going around in circles since 2021. The government is talking about technical readiness, doc The European Commission i European Parliament they identify a serious reform deadlock and democratic backsliding, and the member states look at the political reality where there is not enough trust to take the next step," she says.
The reality, he adds, is that without a visible political turn towards the EU and measurable results in the rule of law, media freedom, election conditions, foreign policy and security issues, 2026 could easily be another year with few or zero points.
Photo: AP Photo/Jean-Francois Badias, FileEuropean Parliament
Without rose-colored glasses
The expectations of Nebojsa Lazarevic from the Center for European Policies are not rosy either.
"Serbia was not only once a leader in European integration, is already sliding towards the bottom of the ladder. In addition, it is the only country that has ever negotiated o EU membership, without having a negotiating team. "This is already the third minister for European integration who does not notice this strange fact," says Lazarevic.
Serbia had a negotiating team, but it was abolished in 2021. At that time, the Coordination Body for conducting negotiations was established by the Government's decision.
According to Lazarevic, the negotiating team was professional and led the negotiations in the right direction. In the current coordinating body and in the Government, however, he sees neither the professional capacity nor the political will to change the situation on Serbia's European path for the better during 2026.
What slowed down the process?
On the way to the EU, according to the interviewee of "Vremen", Serbia stood in its own way.
"The multi-year standstill is the consequence of an essential problem: Serbia formally and declaratively adheres to European rhetoric, and in practice it leads a policy that is often contrary to European standards," Đurica believes.
According to her, the European Commission repeats the same key criticisms year after year, and this time the tone is sharper because it is no longer about slow progress but about clear signs of regression in areas that are the foundation of EU membership.
"The key problem is not a lack of knowledge or capacity, but a lack of political will on the part of the authorities to carry out the reforms to the end, and change the reality of life, not just the regulations," she says.
And in the technical sense, she believes, there is the same pattern: some regulations and laws are adopted, but their application remains inconsistent; institutions exist, but they are under political pressure.
"Progress exists in traces, often in the form of procedural steps and promises, but it is essentially too slow and too often canceled by other moves by the government. That is why the negotiations are stalled, because the EU is not only looking at 'ticked' measures, but the direction in which society is going," Đurica explains.
According to Lazarevic, it is extremely bad when a country receives grades like 'moderate progress' or 'no progress' for years, as is the case with Serbia.
"These are grades for countries that are just entering the process of stabilization and association. For the first time, we are also getting grades that there has been a setback. The homework has not been done," says Lazarevic.
On the way to the EU, Serbia was in that position more than a decade and a half ago - the stabilization and association process with the EU formally began with the signing of the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) in April 2008, and the SAA entered into force on September 1, 2013.
According to Lazarevic, the bad grades that Serbia receives from the domestic public are often covered up with a political story - that everything is a consequence of the attitude towards Russia or questions Kosova.
"If the reforms were done, if there were no setbacks in the area." of the rule of law – or better yet, that there was real progress – cluster three would certainly be open", Lazarevic believes.
Four years of being stuck and what to do next
According to Lazarevic, the process has been effectively stuck since 2021.
Although he is not optimistic that the situation will change soon, he estimates that, with real political will, Serbia would need about two and a half years to fulfill all the demands and finish the negotiations.
"If there was a mental change and a real desire to do something, the reforms would be relatively easy to implement. Today, it's primarily a technical job. But that 'switch in the head' is not happening, and that's why I'm not optimistic," he says.
The opening of the cluster is not automatic and a reward for administratively adopted papers, but a fundamental change is needed.
"It is a political decision of 27 EU member states that are looking for proof that the European path is a real state policy, and not a PR campaign or strategy intended only to withdraw money from European funds without real changes and improvements that the process of European integration should bring to citizens," says Đurica.
If, in addition to technical preparation, there is no application of media laws, functional and legitimate REM-, a credible voter list, fair election conditions, clear steps in the normalization of relations with Pristina, alignment with the EU's foreign and security policy, there is no chance that the process will freeze, she adds.
"Without that, expecting the cluster to open up means expecting the EU to ignore its own standards. And that's not going to happen."
Brussels, protest and empty chairs
At the conference in Brussels in December 2025, a new cluster was not opened in Serbia, and that decision, according to the interviewee of "Vremen", was influenced by the events in the country during the previous year.
"In the beginning, the EU was not particularly interested in the internal situation in Serbia, but internal issues in the country should not be of interest to it. But human rights are their concern. And that is something that gradually began to seriously concern them," Lazarevic explains.
As a form of protest against the lack of a "green light", Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, as well as other high-ranking officials, did not appear at the EU-Western Balkans summit.
Lazarevic believes that such a move will not have serious consequences if it remains an isolated incident, but warns that a repetition could further worsen relations.
Đuric considers this move by the authorities a political own goal.
"It is not a show of strength, but a demonstration of weakness and insecurity, because when the European path is your strategic goal, you are at the table when it is difficult, and when you are criticized, and when you are not doing well. You do not go to Brussels to get applause, but to defend the interests of the state, and this is done with arguments, results and politics, not with empty gestures," says the general secretary of EPuS.
The consequences of not leaving can be serious, but the EU will not "punish" Serbia out of spite, but because such moves further undermine trust, she adds.
"At the moment when the opening of the cluster is requested, and at the same time it sends a signal that dialogue with the EU is optional, such a step is counterproductive and harmful to the country. In the logic that the EU today treats enlargement as a geopolitical instrument, a partner that is demonstrably absent becomes a partner that is harder to trust. The worst thing is that such decisions at home are populistically sold as 'resistance to blackmail', but in fact, they will be seen as such in Brussels, avoiding responsibility and lacking seriousness."
And what are the neighbors doing?
Dok Serbia is standing still, the region is moving on.
Montenegro accelerates towards membership - it has closed 12 out of 33 chapters and announces that it will complete all reforms by the end of 2026, with increasingly clear signals from Brussels that it could become the next member of the EU.
Right after her towards the EU hit Albanija.
"Montenegro is treated as a 'front-runner', and Albania as a country that made an unusually fast step forward in the negotiations. That's why their goals (membership around 2028 for Montenegro and around 2029 for Albania) sound more realistic than before," says Đurica.
This, he adds, can have a direct impact on Serbia: the excuse that the problem is only in the EU, in "fatigue" or "geopolitics" ceases to be valid.
"When your neighbors are progressing, it becomes obvious that the key lies in domestic performance. Regional dynamics are also changing, where Serbia risks losing its status as a central actor, its negotiating importance declining and finding itself in a situation where it views the European future from a self-selected 'waiting room' while the region is reorganized without it. This is not a drama for prestige, but a question of the economy, investments, jobs, living standards and legal security of citizens, and ultimately the political stability of the country," concludes Đurica.
Thus, the question is no longer whether Serbia will advance towards the EU in 2026, but how long it will remain behind those who once looked behind it.
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