Montenegro, whose statehood is often contested by a part of the Serbian public, and Montenegrins qualify as a "fictional nation", and Albanija, for which there are also not many good words in Serbia, found themselves one step away from joining the European Union (EU).
Thus, on Monday, November 17, Albania opened the last, sixth cluster in the negotiations with the EU, and Montenegro progressed even more, as confirmed by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Germany, Johann Wadeful. He said that there are realistic prospects for Montenegro to achieve its strategic goal by 2028 - full membership in to the European Union.
How did it happen that countries that are perceived by the Serbian public with a considerable amount of disdain find themselves at the door of the EU long before Of Serbia? Marko Todorović from the Center for European Policies talks about how realistic it is that Serbia, taught by the examples of Montenegro and Albania, "gives gas" on the European road to "Vreme".
Serbia cannot make up for the backlog
He points out that it is "very difficult" for Serbia to achieve what Albania did in just one year, which is to open all clusters.
"At the pace at which it has progressed in the past 10 years, Serbia certainly cannot count on making up for what it is lagging behind in the next few years. It seems completely unrealistic that in the first wave of EU enlargement - where it is calculated that Montenegro and most likely Albania will join, and maybe even Moldova - so will Serbia," says Todorović.
Asked to comment on the statement of the European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos that Serbia "cannot sit on two chairs and look to the EU for money, and to the other side for gas", Todorović says that one of the biggest challenges for Serbia is the mismatch of foreign policy with the common security foreign policy of the EU.
He points out that this inconsistency is an equally big problem for Serbia, as well as problems with the rule of law and unresolved issues. Kosova.
"Serbia managed to balance the situation by sitting on two chairs, and until now it was largely tolerated. On the one hand, no sanctions were introduced Russia, and on the other hand Serbia is in Ukraine sent a large humanitarian and even military aid, so that many things have passed so far," recalls Todorović.
Sanctions against NIS can also increase EU pressure
However, things have changed a bit now considering that the United States of America has decided to be very strict on sanctions. Oil Industries of Serbia (NIS).
"Now the EU also has an additional incentive to take advantage of that momentum and exert even greater pressure on Serbia. While things with the NIS are being resolved, relations between Serbia and Russia will probably worsen, so the EU will probably want to put additional pressure on Serbia to carry out the process to the end," believes Todorović.
Speaking about Serbia and the opening of cluster 3, Kos reminded that The European Commission stated in the report that Serbia has met all the criteria for opening, and not for the first time, but that it also requires the fulfillment of non-paper obligations from last November, namely the resolution of the Banjska case, media laws, voter lists and the Regulatory Body for Electronic Media (REM).
It is not certain that the government wants to deal with Banjsko
Asked if the government in Serbia is ready to respond to those "domestic tasks" mentioned by Kos, Todorović points out that the case Spa "definitely the most controversial".
"I am not sure how ready the government in Serbia is to deal with Banjska. I think that Banjska was taken only as one case, and that the broader context, that is, the normalization of relations with Pristina, was meant," says Todorović.
When it comes to media laws, voter lists and REM, Todorović indicates that amendments to the Law on the Voter List have been adopted, and that the government has somehow tried to complete the process of electing REM Council members.
None of the money from the Growth Plan
"I think there is a certain willingness of the government to deal with these issues, because the pressures are very high, since the issues of the voter list and REM are part of the reform agenda for Serbia. We see that Serbia has not yet received any money from the new Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, even though it has fulfilled some obligations, and even though it sent a request for the first tranche of funding back in March," recalls Todorović.
He also states that the European Commission had a deadline of 90 days to make a statement regarding Serbia's request, which means that the deadline expired at the end of the summer, but that the European Commission did not announce at all whether and when it would cede that money to Serbia.
"And that is a kind of message that some things have to change. There is a certain willingness of the authorities to deal with internal issues, but the situation is much more complicated when it comes to the normalization of relations with Pristina, especially if you take into account that there is currently no government in Pristina, so there is no one to negotiate with," concludes Todorović.
Majstorović: Serbia does not meet the basic requirements
The President of the Management Board of the Center for European Policies, Srđan Majstorović, assessed that Serbia cannot currently become a member of the EU, because it does not meet the basic conditions for it, and a change of government is the only way to speed up its accession process.
"EU accession is not in the interest of this regime. They feel comfortable in a position where they have developed trade relations with the EU and a solid inflow of investments from the EU, but at the same time, they are not obliged to strictly implement what is required of the members of the European Union. However, that position will also be increasingly difficult to sustain," said Majstorović for the "Svedok vremena" podcast.
According to him, a realistic option is for Montenegro, Albania, and even Moldova to become EU members before Serbia.
"Moldova has an important geostrategic position and after the elections in September this year and taking a firm course towards the European Union, we should not be surprised if Moldova joins the EU before Serbia," said Majstorović.
