Announcement by the President of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić that Serbia will double in the next year and a half military capacities has reopened the question - from whom is the country actually defending itself and what are the real reasons for the intensive armaments.
At the session of the National Security Council, Vučić said that the security situation in the world has seriously deteriorated, especially after the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, and that further arming of Pristina is particularly worrying for Serbia.
"Contrary to the UN Charter and Resolution 1244, the arming of Pristina is underway. That resolution has been de facto suspended, although not de jure by major Western powers and certain regional players such as Turkey. They are rapidly arming Pristina, and a special threat to the security, territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Republic of Serbia is the alliance or newly created alliance of Pristina, Tirana and Zagreb," Vučić said.
So he assessed that Serbia must be strong in order to preserve peace and ward off potential threats, stressing that we will never attack anyone, but that it must be ready to defend itself.
Such rhetoric is not new. In recent years, in the public appearances of the top of the state, security threats are regularly highlighted as a key argument for large and often non-transparent military procurements. However, some military analysts and the professional public believe that other motives are hidden behind these messages.
Arming against one's own people
Military analyst Aleksandar Radić estimates that the key problem of this government is its own population, and not a real external military threat, so the purchase of complex combat systems is an indirect means of political control.
"Purchasing such systems from countries that provide political support to the authorities in Serbia strengthens the position of the regime. The justification is always the same - the presentation of some constant danger. In this way, public opinion is anesthetized and forms the attitude that arming is necessary and in the general interest, while in fact all this is done for the benefit of this government," says Radić.
He reminds that weapons in Serbia are mostly bought without public tenders, which is a precedent in the region. Such practice enables direct political agreements with countries such as France and China, and earlier also Russia, without clear military analysis and public control.
"The purchase of weapons is actually related to state affairs and direct negotiations with people who are the bearers of the highest decision-making levels in France, China, and earlier in Russia," says Radić.
Photo: Tanjug/Vladimir ŠporčićSession of the National Security Council
Messages for the electorate
In addition, the method of communication of such messages about the military alliance of Pristina, Zagreb and Tirana is intended for the electorate of the Serbian Progressive Party, according to Radić.
"An atmosphere of constant imminent threat of war is being created. No questions are asked about the motives for purchasing weapons, but it is simply said: 'they are attacking us,'" he states.
What does Maduro have to do with arming Serbia?
Another televised appearance by Vučić came after the kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife.
"Then (Dragan J) Vučićević explained on television that in Venezuela it was done by the blockaders and that they jump just like the blockaders in Serbia", says Radić, citing it as another example that it is clear who the president is addressing.
He also assesses as problematic the fact that the process of modernization of the Serbian Armed Forces is increasingly being moved from the framework of professional military assessment and turned into a political tool.
"There are people in the army who support it for pragmatic reasons, because they look at their own positions. Such people in the army will not analyze the moves, because they are in their favor," says Radić.
Panic attack
Many see the president's speech as another form of panic, Radić believes.
In this context, he also recalls earlier cases, such as the frequent demonstrations of military force aimed at Kosovo. "It was a ritual that was repeated every few months. Panic sets in, and people quickly forget," he assesses.
And while the government claims that strengthening the army serves to preserve peace and stability, critics warn that without a clear strategy, transparency and realistic assessment of threats, the question arises whether Serbia is arming itself because of an external threat or because of the government's internal political needs.
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