Twelve days have passed since the largest protest in the history of Serbia, and the most common question is: what next? The government and the citizens are on opposite sides, repression is getting stronger, the opposition is looking for a solution, and the students are thinking of their next move. Everything suggests that this is just the calm before the storm
Arrests, media frenzy, pressure on the police and prosecutors, a mysterious weapon allegedly used at the protest March 15, a blow to the existence of educators - as time goes on, the state's repression of rebellious citizens intensifies.
Twelve days have passed since the biggest protest in the history of Serbia, when part of the citizens went home disappointed, with dashed hopes that they might attend the new October 5 on that day. Although the students said from the beginning that the protest was not the end, but the beginning of the struggle, perhaps the beginning of the end of this system led by Aleksandar Vučić. Only the government spoke of March 15 as "D-day".
Since then, Serbia seems to be floating in an in-between space. The students continued their protest actions, and the government continued its daily attempts to challenge the popular uprising. An uneasy feeling of anticipation crept into the people. Every day, one is held somewhere civic assembly, some party functionary or former resident of Ćaciland - too often the two are one and the same - is showered with eggs. SNS activists are also going through a similar situation, who can no longer set up a stand even on a corner in the neighborhood without being surrounded by angry neighbors.
Apart from the problems at the bar, the government is also in the dark about the possible use of a sound cannon or some other weapon against peaceful citizens on March 15, for which it now has to account to Europe and the world.
In the midst of all this, the government of Miloš Vučević officially fell on March 19, so the clock is ticking for Vučić to choose a new president by April 18. If that does not happen, new elections will be held.
This means that the government is choosing between two evils. The question is who would agree to pull chestnuts out of the fire as prime minister in such a situation. On the other hand, calling new elections would only add fuel to the fire, the opposition quite convincingly unanimously says that they will boycott the elections as long as they are called under the current conditions, and it is also questionable how much trust Vučić has in the Serbian Progressive Party to once again "blow away" the competition - he has already begun to implement the long-announced Movement for the People and the State.
The research of the New Serbian Political Thought published in the last issue of "Vremena" showed exactly what Vučić was afraid of - the progressives are in decline, and the opposition, for the first time in many years, is rated better than the government by the citizens.
What will the opposition do next?
In these circumstances, the opposition has a lot of material and opportunities to finally go from defensive to offensive and deliver the final blow to the progressive regime. For now, part of the parliamentary opposition has presented the concept of a government of people's trust, as a proposal of a transitional government.
Radomir Lazović, co-president of the Green-left font, told Vreme that the opposition's proposal to resolve the crisis is based on the fact that for any progress, it is necessary to replace the government which is corrupt and whose actions have led to the current state of society.
"We see that the will of the citizens is for the government to be replaced. One of the conditions for the opposition's proposal to succeed is to receive their support. Our proposal is at the same time a call for support and that, if someone thinks there is a better idea, come forward with it and together we will find a way to get rid of a dictatorial government. The transitional government is not a goal at all - it is a means to reach free elections, in order to form a real government," says Lazović.
However, the authorities' previous statements indicate that they will not agree to such a proposal. What then?
"Eggs against egg-makers"
That the citizens really need some kind of direction and plan is also shown throwing eggs at officials and progressive activists, which takes place every day in cities across Serbia, and since recently also in Belgrade. All this threatens to turn into anarchy.
In all of this, the opposition, instead of trying to mobilize citizens' dissatisfaction, remains on declarative proposals for the time being. Exceptions are groups of local citizens and individual local councilors, who are on the street with their fellow citizens every day. Thus, the locals are practically left to fend for themselves, without any protection from arrest and repression, which will only intensify as the fear of losing power grows. Two young men, aged 16 and 19, were recently detained in Niš for throwing eggs at the mayor.
The vicious circle thus continues. Citizens do not have enough trust in the opposition, so they mostly plan actions on the street themselves. Since they think they are self-sufficient, distrust in political representatives deepens, and attachment to students and the idea that students should lead the people politically - even though they have said many times that they have no such ambitions.
Of course, the actions of the opposition in the institutions are positive, but are they enough? Sociologist Jovo Bakić told "Nova" television that the concept of a government of people's trust is "self-irony", because people do not trust either the opposition or the government.
Bakić suggests that pressure on the regime should be increased.
"First everything has to be fattened up, there are enough of us, but it would be good if there were more of us. The more of us, the shorter the entire stewing process will last. If you increase the temperature a little, if you add some spices, then it will turn out very tasty, and it will happen faster than this mode or the beef expects," said Bakić.
The biggest rally in history - pending
At the same time, while waiting for the next moves of the opposition, it seems that the government has also taken a low start. For days, Vučić pompously announced the "biggest meeting in history", which he first said would be held on March 28, and then suddenly became silent. All this additionally hints at troubles in the ruling party, which previously, in one way or another, at least managed to fill the town squares of smaller towns in Serbia, such as Jagodina and Sremska Mitrovica.
Then it moved on to the centers of culture, sports halls and other closed places, where several hundred people gather with the help of heavy security. Lately, even that is not possible without the complete fencing of the part of the city where the progressives will meet. And even then, the eggs of angry citizens, through the cordons of the police, find the desired target.
However, it is one thing to fence off the center of Leskovac, and another to fence off the center of Belgrade, a city of almost two million people, where the popularity of the Serbian Progressive Party is in free fall. Vučić jumped into his stomach by announcing the largest rally in history in the middle of Belgrade, where only two weeks earlier hundreds of thousands of people showed that they were more than dissatisfied with the behavior of the President of Serbia. There were rumors at some point that the gathering of gatherings would be held in the Sava Center, but it seems that nothing has come of it either.
Perhaps Vučić could create Ćaciland 2.0, then fence off the wider center of Belgrade, bring in new tractors, beaters and private security in an effort to privatize the entire area around the National Assembly and thus perform the biggest show in the history of Serbia. Such a scenario is still possible, because "Informer" exclusively announced that it will The "National Assembly" will be held from April 11 to 13 on the plateau in front of the Assembly of Serbia. Admittedly, this time without the qualification that it is "the largest gathering in the history of Serbia".
How are the students doing?
Finally, we come to the students, as the newest political actor, who enjoys greater trust among the citizens, both from the government and from the opposition. Four months after the start of the struggle, the students are still insisting on their original four demands. However, it is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, the fact that the students stick to their demands shows consistency, unwaveringness and authenticity, all of which the government has been trying to deny them - unsuccessfully - since the beginning.
On the other hand, after the historic rally on March 15, the protests need new energy. The government can no longer hide the fact that there is huge dissatisfaction among the people, because several hundred thousand people on the street, even for propaganda champions like "Informer" and "Pink", cannot be a "handful of misery". However, in the fight against a regime that is increasingly heading towards an open dictatorship, numbers alone are not enough.
This by no means implies violence, which students do not consider a good way of fighting. For four months now, against a violent regime that is ready to use phalanxes and paramilitary formations against them, they have been fighting with non-violence, tactics, patience and intelligence.
Or, as the students of the Faculty of Organizational Sciences write on their social networks these days during the blockade: "Smarter does not give in, smarter organizes".
Radicalization of protests?
As "Vreme" unofficially learns, the students are also aware that new energy is necessary and that there must be no relaxation in the fight against an opponent who is ready for anything. That is why there have been rumors about the radicalization of protests for some time at some faculties. Whether this radicalization would entail the addition of new demands or, more likely, the expansion of student blockades to some other institutions, is still unknown.
It is possible that the new struggle will take place at the level of individual faculties. For example, due to the negligent release of the president of Serbia and a suite of videographers to the intensive care unit, where seriously injured people from North Macedonia were brought, the students of the Faculty of Medicine demanded on March 26 that the director of the University Clinical Center of Serbia (UKCS) Jelena Drulović, the director of the UKCS Emergency Center Marko Ercegovac and the head of the intensive care department of the UKCS Emergency Center Dušan Micić be dismissed.
At the same time, the students of the Faculty of Dramatic Arts announced a media war against Radio and Television of Serbia, which they recently blocked for 22 hours, and the students of the Faculty of Political Sciences announced protest in front of "Informer" television on Saturday, March 29.
Apparently, this will not be the end of such actions. Twelve days after the biggest protest in the history of Serbia, everything points to the fact that this is just the calm before the storm.
The Irshot organization, based on hundreds of statements and videos from the protests in Belgrade on March 15, claims that acoustic weapons were "very likely" used on peaceful demonstrators.
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