Partly cloudy, from zero to five degrees. Such weather for election week is announced by the Republic Hydrometeorological Institute. Does rainfall really affect turnout?
It would not be said, at least according to the previous elections. For example, the turnout in 2016 was 56 percent in rainy weather, and in 2014 it was 53 percent in good March weather.
The topic was recently covered by Belgrade's Blic, and the interlocutors expressed opposing opinions.
Some say that good weather drives people to go out into nature and on trips, and that's exactly what reduces turnout. While others say that even a downpour can be an obstacle for voters to go and vote.
Fame from the United States
In the United States, election day weather is a constant topic. As the New York Times wrote last year, bad weather raises the social and psychological "cost" of going to the polls - a greater effort is needed.
Yusaku Horiuchi, a professor at Dartmouth and co-author of a 2017 paper showing how weather affects turnout, concluded that one inch (2,54 centimeters) of rain above normal drops turnout by one percent.
According to Horiuchi, the snow has less of an effect. An inch of more snow reduces turnout by about half a percent.
Read more Obradović and Veselinović for "Vreme": We will win convincingly
What kind of weather is everyone's favorite?
In America, heavy rainfall reduces voter turnout favoring Democratic candidates, 2007 studies show.
So the Republicans are "cheering" for worse weather conditions and rain on election day.
Back in 2012, a "Weather Channel" poll showed that supporters of Barack Obama were more likely to be demotivated by rain to get out and vote than supporters of Mitt Romney, reports Washington Post.
In Serbia, this rule is almost inapplicable. After all, here the discipline of voters is not divided by ideology, but by age. Because, apart from people who are forced to vote, the most regular voters are always pensioners.
MS (RHMZ, NYT, WP, Blic)
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