"Kurti ignores the West and is doing great"

Kurti is successful in his intentions to implement Kosovo statehood in the North, says analyst Marko Prelec, but warns that it will be difficult to reduce the Serbs to what they are today in Croatia.

In the Swiss daily Noye Zircher Zeitung published an article entitled "Aljbin Kurti's strategy in Kosovo is successful", reports Deutsche says.

It is about the conversation that the Swiss journalist had with the expert on the Balkans, Marko Prelec, who received his doctorate in history from Yale, worked for the Hague Tribunal and the International Crisis Group, and now has his own analytical center.

First of all, it is stated that the dialogue process between Belgrade and Pristina is "clinically dead". When asked how this happened, Prelec answers:

"Kurti has no confidence that the dialogue will bring the desired result - Serbian definitive recognition of Kosovo's independence." That is why he is pursuing a fait accompli policy, enforcing state sovereignty in the North wherever he can. The strategy has been more successful than most of us expected. This is also because no one could have imagined that a prime minister in Pristina would make decisions to such an extent without the help of Western partners".

When asked about the possibilities of Western partners influencing Kurti, Prelec said that only Kfor can impose some red lines, which he also did in the case of the bridge in Mitrovica, but also that the possibilities of influence are limited due to the great popularity of Kurti, especially after the conflict in Banjska .

This was followed by a question about whether the escalation is the result of the loss of faith in the region that the EU will accept new members from the Balkans. Prelec replies that the candidates are to blame for the slow progress of the accession negotiations: "Maybe with the exception of Montenegro, they simply do not meet the accession criteria."

Prelec predicts Kurti's further moves - bringing education and health under control. When asked what Pristina wants to achieve with this, he answers: "Although Belgrade claims the opposite, I think that Kurti does not in principle reject the presence of the Serbian population in Kosovo." But it requires an unequivocal recognition that they live in the state of Kosovo. He does not tolerate any sense of belonging to Serbia."

"Kosovo is not Croatia"

"I assume that he is thinking of a long-term solution like in Croatia." There was also a significant Serbian minority there, which after the war dwindled to a few percent. These people have certain cultural and political rights today. But there is no partial autonomy and no real possibility of Belgrade's influence. Belonging to Croatia is not in question. But Kosovo is not Croatia."

When asked whether the problem is also in Belgrade and whether the West is not lenient towards Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, Prelec answers that the diplomatic pressure is directed mainly at Pristina, and that it is based on a wrong assessment by Brussels and Washington.

"Vučić presents himself very skillfully. Ammunition shipments to Ukraine have earned him a lot of favor from the West. In addition, there is concern in European capitals that Serbia will turn to Russia if the pressure on Belgrade is too great. I think that's a completely wrong assessment."

A little further, he explains: "Vučić knows that he is destined for good relations with NATO and the European Union." After all, those organizations surround his country. The cost of a confrontational course would be too high."

The journalist asks the final question - is there a danger of escalation. "There is no immediate danger." But depending on the general geopolitical conditions, the situation can change," answers the expert on the Balkans.

He then states the risks - any victory of Russia in the war with Ukraine would also bring new borders. In addition, there is uncertainty regarding the possible victory of Trump in the US presidential elections.

Marko Prelec states: "The West is wrong if it underestimates the importance of such unresolved conflicts."