Only those who normally believe in Aleksandar Vučić can believe that extraordinary parliamentary elections will really be called next year, in 2026, because he said so.
For those others, who do not believe in everything he says, or even consider him a notorious liar, the fact that he said that something will happen should not mean anything at all, for the least false consolation that this political crisis is coming to an end, and a happy one for the opponents of the regime.
Not even the student rebel movement, let alone the opposition political parties, have so far been able to put enough pressure on the Serbian president to fulfill their, meanwhile, basic demand: the calling of extraordinary parliamentary elections, because with the Serbian Progressive Party in power, there is nothing to do with the rule of law.
If some kind of general strike does not occur in Serbia (which, based on past experience, is not likely), if part of the police does not join the part of judges and prosecutors who put the law above the wishes of Aleksandr Vučić (which is even less to be expected), if hundreds of thousands of people do not gather in Belgrade, ready not to retreat until the elections are called (which is not excluded), but also absolutely determined not to back down in decisive numbers before tear gas, batons, and a sound cannon, arrests and who knows what else (which is again not likely), then Aleksandar Vučić will call for extraordinary parliamentary elections only if he judges that he will surely win them.
And not only that: they will not be called even if the assessment is such that fraudulent acts in the elections, calculated in the victory of the SNS, could provoke unwavering anger among the critical mass and cause violent demonstrations with unforeseeable consequences. Something similar to the Fifth of October, the nightmare of Vučić and Ivica Dačić.
Two long years
If nothing of all that, or something beyond the scope of calculations, happens, if the street protests, which have died down at the moment, do not flare up to unimaginable proportions, if the cycle of blockades does not enter again, only more fierce than before, and if, therefore, public opinion polls do not show that Vučić will surely win, regular parliamentary elections will await.
No matter how depressing it sounds - some 840 more days under this government which is doing everything to once again sow fear, destroy all the remaining signs of the life of democracy and sell off and collect everything that is left - it should actually give hope to the opposition, because it would mean that the SNS with Prilep does not manage to turn public opinion on its side.
Since the parliamentary mandates of this convocation of the National Assembly were confirmed on February 2, 2024, they expire on February 2, 2028.
Regular elections are announced by the President of the Republic 90 days before the expiration of the mandate of the current convocation of the National Assembly. No less than 45 nor more than 60 days can pass from the day of the announcement to the day of holding the election.
The government could, therefore, prolong the parliamentary elections for more than two years.
Presidential election factor
Aleksandar Vučić took office as the President of the Republic for the first time on May 31, 2017. He again put his hand on the Constitution and Miroslav's Gospel and took the presidential oath on May 31, 2022. The presidential mandate lasts five years, and the current Constitution provides for a maximum of two mandates.
Aleksandar Vučić is far more popular than SNS. He has no replacement. Both his personal and party policy is that everyone must be in his shadow, act as his subordinates, endure his name-calling and ridicule, and make him a star. That is why the progressive lists also bear his name in local elections.
Aleksandar Vučić cannot bear to share power and attention with anyone, so it can be assumed that it will not be known for a long time who SNS will run for president of the Republic after him.
His flirtation with political retirement does not sound convincing at all, so it could be concluded that he will try to find a puppet for that position, just like Ana Brnabić and Miloš Vučević and what Djuro Macut is like now in the position of Prime Minister while he is the President of the Republic.
The name of seventy-three-year-old Tomislav Nikolić, whom Vučić forced into political retirement, is mentioned there.
Aleksandar Vucic has dug his claws into power and is unlikely to let it go voluntarily. If he succeeds in driving the rebellion in society into peaceful waters by intensifying state repression and intimidation, it is easy to imagine him following the example of Milo Djukanovic and Vladimir Putin and returning to the position of Prime Minister.
In this context, parliamentary elections before the expiration of the legal deadline are conceivable, which Vučić hinted at as a possibility. The reason is that by merging the presidential and parliamentary elections, the risk of a weak progressive presidential candidate losing just before the parliamentary elections is reduced and the abyss does not open under the feet of the representatives of this government, which happened to the Democratic Party when Boris Tadic lost to Nikolic on May 20, 2012.
At some point, Vučić could also resign from the position of President of the Republic, to be elected Prime Minister in the Assembly and hold that position until 2028 and lead a campaign for parliamentary elections...
All in all, the court on Andrićevo venc still has room for maneuver. How big it will be depends on the student rebel movement, but also on the opposition political parties and, above all, the willingness of citizens dissatisfied with the progressive regime to actively join the fight for change.
This October, "Vreme" celebrates and honors - as much as 35 percent discount for our 35th birthday! Valid for semi-annual and annual subscriptions. Subscribe now!
