Apparently, there is a wide range of geopolitical and economic moves that Serbia can make, in order to take over citizenship in NIS-and saved herself from sanction which America is allegedly preparing for this company.
If sanctions do occur, Serbia will actually have only a few legal options.
Each of them has negative consequences, and almost all of them will lead the country into the red, at least when it comes to financial promises to cut government spending.
"It is not a problem for us to pay NIS," Ljubodrag Savić, a professor at the Faculty of Economics in Belgrade, told "Vreme". "What can be a problem comes after the purchase."
Political promises and maneuvers, on the other hand, are much more complicated.
"I would not be surprised if, in addition to the legally permitted model, Serbia and Russia make an additional deal," energy expert Miodrag Kapor told Vreme.
"For Russia to agree to return the NIS to us, but to ask to have its own people there." Something like the model that exists in Srbijagas."
Dušan Bajatović, a star of the SPS, is a long-term, practically irreplaceable director of that company.
What if we pay?
The company Gazprom Neft owns 50 percent of NIS, and Gazprom itself has another 6,15 percent of shares, which makes up the majority package. The State of Serbia holds 29,87 percent of the shares, while the rest belongs to citizens, employees, former employees and other minority shareholders.
The financial aspect of the purchase of NIS was also discussed on Monday (January 6) by Finance Minister Sinisa Mali, who claimed that "the state has a solution for NIS" and that "citizens should not worry".
He added that "the budget can withstand the pressure of 500 billion dinars, which is what Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić said the Russian part of ownership in NIS is worth."
"There are several things that are still unclear for us, in terms of deadlines, structure, ownership, management methods and so on, but we will solve that problem as well," Mali told RTS.
Mali only casually mentioned that it is important to act quickly and efficiently "so that GDP growth and the functioning of the economy would not be jeopardized in any way".
Economist Ljubodrag Savić underlines exactly this functioning, "We promised the IMF that the current deficit would not exceed three percent this year," he explains. "As soon as we buy NIS, we would exceed that at the beginning of the year."
Thus, we would certainly damage the country's credit rating. "And the IMF would not forgive us," he adds.
Photo: . Photo Marija JankovićNIS building in Novi Sad
What are our options?
Savić agrees with Mali on one point, "that it is not yet clear what the Americans want from Serbia."
"The West will not settle for anything less than Russia not being owned by NIS," Savić thinks.
Among the economic options, Savić explains, is the possibility that Serbia buys all shares from Gazprom and becomes the owner of 100 percent of NIS.
Another possibility is that Serbia buys only majority ownership, and the third is a hostile takeover.
"The question is what the Russians are ready for," adds the professor of the Faculty of Economics.
Savić says that Serbia is between two powers, but he gives greater negotiating power to America.
"If Serbia imposes sanctions on Russia, the USA will probably accept that we only have majority ownership in NIS, but since that is unlikely, I believe they will ask for Gazprom to completely exit NIS," he thinks.
Serbian-Russian director
As this is primarily a political problem, there is also a bonus option - a "gentleman's agreement".
"Perhaps the Russians will agree that we pay them, and then return the money and regain ownership, when the sanctions are lifted and the war is over," adds Savić.
Minority shareholders should also be taken into account, because no one asked them what they wanted.
Energy expert Miodrag Kapor mentions a similar scenario. "The government, as well as a large part of the opposition in Serbia, is dependent on relations with Russia," says Kapor. "So it's possible that the Russians will be cooperative on the surface."
One of the options is that, he adds, they will behave as in the case of the sale of Serbian weapons to Ukraine, when they acted as if they did not see it.
However, it is certain, Kapor thinks, that they will ask for something in return. "Maybe they'll say - here's the part of the NIS you need, but put our man in."
That's why, says Kapor, the best thing for NIS and Serbia would be for professional management to head the company, after the takeover, and not for the government to get the opportunity to appoint a "Serbian-Russian director".
Who was taking over all the companies in a hostile manner
Russia can also say that it does not want to sell the company. In that case, Savić explains, Serbia would have to implement a hostile takeover.
"It's actually the nationalization of private property," he says.
In this case, Serbia would have to pay Russia as much for NIS as its share is worth on the stock market at that moment, which, the economist adds, is about 500 billion dinars, which Vučić also mentioned.
Property nationalization was carried out on a massive scale in Yugoslavia after the Second World War, as well as during Muammar al-Gaddafi's time in Libya.
This option is also according to the law, because Serbia could prove that its energy system is threatened due to the sanctions, says Miodrag Kapor.
