Do the new military alliances in the Western Balkans threaten security?

State media in Serbia they were unanimous in praising the agreement on military cooperation of Serbia and Hungary: "A bomb that shakes the region," wrote the tabloid Informer. The government newspaper Kurir saw it as a "historic moment". The news reports about "new proof of iron friendship", and the Republika portal claims that "Croats and Albanians are in a panic because of the Serbian-Hungarian military alliance".

Regardless of whether it is newspapers, TV stations or Internet portals, all media under strict state control unanimously reported on the military alliance signed in Belgrade at the beginning of April by the defense ministers of Hungary, Kristof Salaj-Bobrovnicki, and Bratislav Gašić, of Serbia. A few days later, the president of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, announced the entry of that entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina into the "new military alliance". writes DW.

Serbian media on both sides of the Drina presented a new "military pact" as a reaction to the recently agreed military alliance between NATO partners Croatia and Albania, as well as Kosovo, whose independence from Serbia Belgrade did not recognize even more than a decade and a half later.

"What is particularly worrying" is that "that military alliance was formed without consultation with Belgrade", criticized the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Serbia. It added that the goal of the agreement is to isolate Serbia and create "paramilitary structures" in Kosovo, as well as that this represents a "gross provocation."

Military agreement between Zagreb, Tirana and Pristina

So what does the agreement between the governments in Zagreb, Tirana and Pristina actually foresee? The agreement signed by the defense ministers of Croatia, Albania and Kosovo on March 18, 2025 in Tirana envisages cooperation within the Strategic Concept of NATO and the security policy of the European Union. Strengthen cooperation between the arms industry and the training of soldiers and officers. Joint military exercises are also planned.

Within the framework of Euro-Atlantic integration, one of the focuses is on measures to combat cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns. Although Serbia claims that it is threatened by that new military alliance, Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković assures: "This memorandum of cooperation does not have any hostile character."

However, decades of national rivalries and animosities between Serbia and Croatia fueled that trilateral agreement. Croatian Defense Minister Ivan Anušić was jubilant: "Gone are the days when Croatia had to ask Belgrade what it can and should do. That will never happen again."

Zagreb's Jutarnji list claimed that the all-powerful president of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, suffered a nervous breakdown because of that deal. That is why the triumphant headlines of the Serbian press were quite logical: "Croatia and Albania received an express answer: Hungary and Serbia signed a military alliance."

What did Belgrade and Budapest agree on?

However, if you take a closer look at the "military alliance" between Belgrade and Budapest, which is presented as historical, you can see that it is a political spin of the media scene controlled by Vučić. "It is in line with Vučić's other marketing tricks," opposition politician Petar Bošković told Danas, a Belgrade newspaper critical of the government in Belgrade.

The military expert from Serbia, Aleksandar Radić, explained on several portals what the supposed military alliance is actually about: "There are no elements of a military alliance," reads his analysis. The pompously announced agreement contains only concrete projects of military cooperation that are agreed annually on the basis of the framework agreement from 2023. Vučić himself retorted: "The goal is a military alliance", for which the course has only now been set.

Increased risk of war in the Western Balkans?

Nevertheless, regardless of the agreed military cooperation, and no matter how vague it is, drastic arming has been noticeable in the Western Balkans region for years. Croatia, for example, which has just re-introduced conscription, bought Rafale fighter jets from France and is negotiating the delivery of Leopard tanks. Serbia has also signed an agreement with Paris on the purchase of the same type of multi-purpose combat aircraft, and is also acquiring weapon systems from Russia and China. "The fuse is still short in the Balkans", is the title of the report of the German Bundeswehr on the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina published last January. So how explosive is the situation?

Although the motto of the Sarajevo portal Klix is ​​still valid: "The enemy of my enemy is my friend", if you look deeper into the deeper twisting balance of power, it turns out that war in the near future is unlikely. At the beginning of April, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that there is no need to put the situation in that region on the agenda of the meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels. Just over a year ago, his predecessor Jens Stoltenberg also assured that there was no direct military threat.

"There is little chance that a real war will break out," Vuk Vukasanović from the Belgrade Center for Security Policy is also certain. Despite the rearmament, Vuksanović believes, those countries would not have enough resources for the conflict, and above all - the local elites would have to fear for their positions in case of war.

NATO is in control.

In addition, NATO has a strong presence in the region. Apart from Kosovo, all neighboring countries of Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina are members of the Alliance. The US operates the large Bondsteel military base in Kosovo. The Romanian Mihail Kogelnicanu Air Base near Constanta is currently being expanded at a cost of at least two and a half billion euros, in order to become the largest NATO base in Europe and to house 10.000 soldiers. A large naval base has long been planned in the port of Durrës on the Adriatic coast of Albania. Waging war against that military power would be tantamount to harakiri.