"We work as if we will live for a hundred years, we prepare as if there will be war tomorrow," he said Josip Broz Tito,. Translated to today's life in Serbia: we exist as if the presidential elections will be held in the regular time in the spring of 2027, and the parliamentary elections in the beginning of 2028, and we are preparing as if it will kill us in six months. However, does opposition actors are preparing as if the election war will start tomorrow?
The decision on whether and when early elections will be called is made by the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić. He himself put May or December 2026 in perspective, but did not specify whether he meant parliamentary or presidential or unified elections. With the fact that the word does not bind him to anything. Speaking of "election year" it is also possible that he just wants to dampen the pressure of a rebellious society that has been demanding the calling of elections immediately and now for a year.
It should be assumed that the regime will delay the elections until the last possible legal moment, if the public opinion polls do not go well for the parties in power. It is also possible that there is a calculation that the rating of the conglomerate led by Vučić is in an unstoppable decline, that due to the expected worsening of social conditions next year, it will be even worse, so that it is necessary to save what can be saved, until the discontent spreads even more.
That is all, however, in the domain of the authorities. The question is what can be done by those who are aware of the growing destructiveness of its existence.
The regime has certainly proved very resistant to mass street protests, and one should not be fooled that, as far as extra-institutional pressure is concerned, anything short of a serious general strike or pre-revolutionary situation could force it to engage in any snap elections beyond its own self-interest.
Parliamentary elections: What was Serbia against violence?
Anyway, regardless of the combinations on Andrić's wreath, the organized political opposition should prepare as if the elections are knocking on the door.
Rebellious students are acting in this sense: they are preparing an electoral list, scouring Serbia up and down, going from door to door, organizing various actions, they are omnipresent in the public eye. They will be as ready as possible if Vučić gives the order for an election blitzkrieg.
The opposition political parties, however, do almost nothing on this issue, although it is clear that only by consolidating in the parliamentary elections, they could achieve a tangible result. A good example was set by the Green-Left Front and the Movement of Free Citizens by signing an agreement on joint action. Other opposition parties should follow him, and then see what they will do when the time comes.
There are not many doubts. An example of success, but also of failure, is the coalition Serbia against violence, whose experience should be guided by the formation of future alliances.
But what about the presidential election? Nobody says anything about them.
Presidential Elections: The Curse of Unification
It is not known whether Aleksandar Vučić is superstitious. If so, he would have taken into account the curse of combining presidential and parliamentary elections in the recent Serbian past.
Counting on his popularity, Slobodan Milošević combined the elections for the president of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 2000 with the elections for the FRY. He was defeated by Vojislav Koštunica. When Milosevic did not want to admit defeat, the Fifth of October happened to him. The system based on the power of one man then fell to pieces.
In 2012, Boris Tadić also calculated that it would be profitable for him to combine the presidential and parliamentary elections. He was defeated by the newly minted progressive Tomislav Nikolić. After that, Ivica Dacic with the SPS betrayed the Democratic Party, flew into the arms of the radical flock and laid the foundation stone for the regime of the Serbian Progressive Party that continues to this day.
And after Vučić – Vučić
Unlike his predecessors, Aleksandar Vučić can no longer run for president of Serbia in the next presidential elections after two mandates. And that is one of the weakest points of the rampart with which he girded his power.
For over a decade, the progressive system has made Vučić a mythical being who does not have to sleep or urinate, to whom no one cares, whose will is unquestionable.
With the awareness that together with Nikolić he stabbed Šešelja in the back, and then I dismissed Tom, to whom he had everything to thank, like a rag doll, Aleksandar Vučić carefully made sure that there was no one in his environment who could in any way threaten his inviolability.
On the contrary, according to his character, he turned the delicious humiliation of his associates and ministers in front of the cameras into a political performance. The goal is clear: to create an image of the ruler and his subjects, to cause unreserved admiration in the part of the less educated electorate that wants a strong leader. And don't let any potential competitor get away with it in any way.
The sadistic element of it all is just an added benefit.
Four options
Vučić has four options: to lead the SNS from the position of the President of the Republic in the extraordinary parliamentary elections, which he would move to a time before the regular presidential elections; to merge the presidential and extraordinary parliamentary elections; to adhere to regular deadlines.
Or, to call presidential elections by surprise next year, relying on the elaborate progressive machinery, counting on the unpreparedness of his opponents, frantic arguments over a common candidate, fencing off rebellious students from opposition parties.
He cannot run away from the presidential elections, and if something goes wrong for him in this scenario, at least he will be able to sit in the prime minister's chair and try to push for the full mandate of this government. In that variant, he doesn't have to play all or nothing, and he would have the advantage of surprise.
Photo robot of the presidential candidate
Vučić will send one of his puppets like Brnabić, Vučević or Macuto to the presidential race, which he will push with his reputation while abusing all possible state resources. Political actors from the other side of Serbia would have to find a strong candidate, to create a photo-robot of a person who can defeat Vučić's strongman in the referendum atmosphere, a person who is acceptable to the civil part of society, but also to its traditional and nationally organized voters and officials of the European Union.
And it will be a great chance for the opponents of this regime, if the pragmatism of one Zoran Đinđić prevails, for everyone in the interest of Serbia to support the one who has the best chance of defeating evil, such as Vojislav Koštunica in 2000.
Those negotiations should begin immediately. The longer we wait, the better will be the prospects of the existing regime that after Vučić, Vučić will take over Andrić's crown.
If, all together, the students and those who influence them and the leaders of the opposition parties, find them unprepared and disunited, it is their own fault.
