These elections once again confirmed that the Poles do not vote "for", but "against" - in the current situation, against the rulers who have proven to be incapable of achieving major reforms, and have created an image of corrupt and incompetent politicians.
Warsaw
Sunday's parliamentary elections in Poland marked the definitive end of the Solidarity legend, although for some it was only the defeat of the right-wing forces that rallied around this symbol. Having come to power in 1997, thanks to "broad unification", the coalition called Electoral action Solidarity dug its own grave and succumbed to an accelerated process of disintegration due to internal (mainly personal) fights and incorrect mutual attacks in the name of the particular interests of certain parties.
The convincing election victory of the coalition of the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) and the Labor Union did not surprise anyone. This was predicted months before the election, so in some polls even more than half of the voters supported the left.
It was not about ideological commitments. These elections once again confirmed that the Poles do not vote "for", but "against" - in the current situation against the rulers who have proven themselves incapable of achieving major reforms, and have created an image of corrupt and incompetent politicians.
SOCIAL DEMOBILIZATION: The elections were boycotted by more than half of Polish adults, which testifies not only to the distrust towards the political elites but also to the frustration caused by the economic and social situation in the country. Some commentators add to that the unstable political situation in the world as an additional factor of social demobilization.
In the history of parliamentarism, there has not been a case where the ruling parties are unable to win any of their MPs in the next elections. And that happened in Poland to the Solidarity and Freedom Union election campaign, which resulted in the elimination of many politicians from public life (Tadeusz Mazowiecki, Bronjislav Geremek and others) who are known in the world as the creators of the new democratic order in this country, and who are also responsible for its entry in NATO and other international structures.
The leaders of the left, however, have no reason to triumph. According to the first unofficial data, the SLD-Labor Union coalition won slightly more than 41 percent of the votes, and this does not guarantee it an absolute majority in the parliament, and therefore neither the creation of a majority government. For some Polish analysts, this is the worst possible solution, as the new government will find it difficult to find support for its program of "correcting the mistakes" of its predecessor in the current structure of political parties in parliament.
SURPRISE OUTSIDER: The biggest surprise in Sunday's elections was provided by the "outsiders" - political groups created a few months ago at the initiative of "deserters", who left the Solidarity Election Action and the Freedom Union. Among them, only the Civic Platform (12,7 percent of votes), headed by the current Speaker of the Parliament Macej Plažinjski and former presidential candidate Andrzej Olehovski, could represent a constructive opposition.
The other debutants entered the parliament thanks to the radical criticism of the previous rulers, although some of them themselves participated in the creation of the policy that suffered a fiasco until recently. Thus, the former Minister of Justice, Lech Kaczynski, recently founded his own party, Pravo i Pravda, proclaiming a toughening of the fight against crime and corruption, including the return of the death penalty.
A real sensation was caused by the success of the radical peasant movement Self-Defense, which won third place in terms of the number of parliamentary mandates won! Self-Defense leader Andrzej Leper, the organizer of peasant roadblocks and other very aggressive forms of protest, won the sympathy of voters not only in the countryside but also in the city, thanks to populist promises about a radical improvement of the social situation in Poland.
Not only populist, but also nationalist slogans contributed to the success of the Catholic League of Polish Families, whose leaders advocate the annulment of all agreements with the European Union in the name of "preserving national sovereignty." In the new parliament, the policy of Euro-Atlantic integration will have opponents not only from this group, but also from Self-Defense, and even from the peasant people's party PSL.
CHALLENGES GOVERNMENT: The left found itself in a situation of choosing between the status of a minority government and the conclusion of an agreement on the expansion of the coalition to one of these groups. In the period 1993-97. In XNUMX, the post-communist left ruled in coalition with the PSL peasant party, but this alliance proved to be ineffective, especially in the implementation of reforms, which contributed to the electoral victory of the right. The leaders of the left do not hide their fear that even today, the Narodniks from the PSL, who won fewer votes than Self-Defense, would be unreliable partners.
Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski advised the SLD leaders to refrain from creating a new coalition and to opt for the creation of "tactical alliances" at each parliamentary vote.
President Kwašnjevski stated that he will entrust the mandate for the composition of the new government to the President of the SLD, Lesek Miller. "It would be better for Poland to create a minority government if the SLD-Labor Union coalition does not win an absolute majority in parliament," he said.
Most of the leaders of the opposition parties express their willingness to cooperate with the future government in areas where the "fundamental interests of Poland and Poles" should be defended. The problem is that they see these interests differently, which is especially the case in foreign policy, where the left intends to remain faithful to the current strategy of Euro-Atlantic integration.
The new parliament will also include some veterans of the Solidarity movement. We are talking about those who left the ruling parties in time and created their own groups. Prime Minister Jerzy Buzek noted with bitterness that a strong opposition could be created from these "deserters", which would have at least 30 percent of the votes in the parliament. At the same time, he ignored the fact that these politicians share deep differences, which caused the disintegration of the Polish right.
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