Za "Time" from Stockholm
At the beginning of March this year, Sweden officially became a member of NATO. When Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán gave the green light a month earlier and waived the membership block, the accession process that had lasted a little less than two years met its epilogue. After Finland joined a month later, Russia gained another neighbor who is a member of the most powerful military alliance.
Another expansion of NATO did not appeal to the Kremlin, which characterized this move as a "historical mistake" that "increases the risk of conflict", especially in the context of Finland, which practically leans on Russia along its entire length.
The external perception of Sweden changed significantly after joining NATO, primarily because this country emphasized its neutrality for decades, especially during the Cold War. It became clear that the tradition of military neutrality was left in the past. However, since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine in 2014 and the annexation of Crimea, Sweden has started with increasingly loud condemnations of official Moscow and more significant investments in defense capabilities. The invasion in February 2022 only cemented the already dominant attitudes and entrenched the fear of the Russian threat.
However, the Swedes today emphasize that it is a question of misinterpretation of the concept of neutrality to which they resorted. They claim that they were never "militarily neutral", but that they were neutral in relation to existing alliances. Whether it's a play on words or not, it doesn't really matter - the fact is that Sweden has completely abandoned the postulates it used to rest on.
This is supported by the fact that since 2017, the voices of political and military leaders warning that an armed conflict is possible are increasingly being heard. Even at the annual security conference in January 2024, these fears were not dismissed, on the contrary, they were given a new note with an even stronger call to raise defense capacities to the highest possible level.
photo: ap photo...AND ADMISSION TO NATO: A new reality in the Baltics
MALA, BUT A MOTIVATED ARMY
Sweden has about ten and a half million inhabitants. However, there are only 26 soldiers in the active military. They have about 35 in reserve. It is interesting that only 250 people are employed in the Ministry of Defense. Before joining NATO, there were about a hundred fewer employees in the ministry. Even budget allocations were not large until the outbreak of conflicts on European soil and the official application for membership in the alliance. Today they have been raised to two percent.
On account of the current story in Serbia for the return of conscription, this Scandinavian country has a rather unique system, although somewhat exotic for Balkan conditions. Instead of mandatory military service, the Swedes have developed a model that directly targets those who have the most potential to enter the reserve or active army - depending on the preferences of the recruits. When they reach the age of majority, citizens receive a summons in which they are asked to declare their military service. The most valued criterion is personal motivation, and candidates compete with each other. In this way, only a small number of young men and women wear the uniform, but those whom the commission has assessed will make the greatest contribution to the defense forces - both on the basis of competence, and on the basis of personal preferences and motivation.
However, what sets Sweden apart, despite its small military capacity, is its highly developed military industry.
TERRITORIAL DEFENSE IN THE SWEDISH WAY
During the Cold War, Sweden, together with other Scandinavian countries, developed and then perfected the concept of "total defense". This system represents a synthesis of civil and military defense. Military defense consists of the armed forces, made up of active and reserve forces, whose goal is to receive the first blow in the event of an attack. On the other hand, the civil defense is composed of all citizens older than 16 and younger than 70, who have specific tasks.
After the fall of the Iron Curtain, Sweden gradually abandoned the concept of total defense. Although it remained legally in force, investments in practice completely disappeared, and with the arrival of new generations, the awareness of the existence of the program itself decreased more and more. The situation changed after the Russian annexation of Crimea, and in 2015 the reactivation of the system began to be advocated again. The first serious step in this direction was made three years later when all households, for the first time in several decades, received a brochure "in case of war", written in the classic Cold War manner.
This booklet represented a significant step forward in Swedish security policy, and was understood as a kind of signal that danger is approaching and that defense capacities need to be adapted to new circumstances.
The total defense model was officially reactivated only in 2022. In the event of a conflict or a security incident, civilians are deployed to pre-prepared positions. Some are mobilized into the armed forces, while some perform civilian jobs. Given that the model is largely designed according to threats from the east, the strengthening of civil defense is actually a response to the potential threat of critical infrastructure. The experience is based on the war in Ukraine.
Due to a multi-year hiatus, the Swedish Ministry of Defense is facing several problems. The legal regulations and procedures are quite outdated, considering that they date back to the Cold War, and they need to be adapted to new activities. On the other hand, part of the population is no longer even aware of their obligations and duties. In conversation with younger Swedes, it is clear that it will take some time for the system to regain its former glory, that is, for it to once again occupy a significant place in the collective consciousness of Swedish society. The ministry itself says that the model has been successfully reactivated, but that it still requires significant improvements.
However, what favors official policies are the attitudes of young people. According to a survey conducted by the Total Defense Institute in 2021, 49 percent of the population declared that they would take on combat tasks in case of danger; 77 percent non-combat role in a life-threatening situation; and 84 percent of a non-combat role in a situation where they are not threatened. The results are quite encouraging for the reactivation of the "total defense" system, and judging by the climate in Swedish society, they have probably improved further in the previous two years.
POWER IN THE EAST
The opinion that the Russian Federation is a serious threat to the Swedish state is widespread among the public. However, there are generally no answers to the questions of potential Russian goals in Europe that could lead to an armed conflict between these two countries. The threat is accepted as such, it has become a kind of dogma and is not questioned.
One of the preventive reactions of the official Stockholm is the increase of military capacities on the island of Gotland in the Baltic Sea. This strategically important island, not only for Sweden but also for the entire NATO, practically enables control over the entire Baltic Sea. And while the island was demilitarized until a few years ago, today armed forces are permanently stationed on it.
The Russian threat to Sweden has proven to be the most real in the cyber sphere so far. Hacking attacks, disinformation and propaganda have been around for several years. The propaganda being published aims to discredit Sweden in the international community, which official Stockholm sees as a serious threat. Through various development and cultural programs for third world countries implemented by state agencies, the Swedes have been thoroughly building a positive image of the country for decades. In this way, they strengthen their presence through soft power.
The fear of the Russian threat does not only apply to Sweden's territorial integrity, but also to the whole of Scandinavia. In addition to joining the NATO alliance, Sweden is largely committed to the concept of regional, Scandinavian security; there were even initiatives to form a regional defense alliance. As one of the segments that stands out to a large extent is the support for Finland, which is practically the entire length leaning on Russia.
The fact is that this Scandinavian country has changed in recent years. Two hundred years of peace is no longer a matter of emphasis. The Swedish state has made a clear decision and that direction is deeply rooted in society, regardless of the political option that is in power at the given moment.
