Some analysts claim that the party system in Bulgaria is in disarray and that the situation is maintained by the authority of a few people. They are: Prime Minister Simeon Sakskoburg, newly elected President Georgi Parvanov, Ahmed Dogan and Stefan Sofijanski. Analysts say that whether a serious political crisis will be avoided depends on their cooperation
For the second time this year - after the coming to power of former Emperor Simeon as Prime Minister - Bulgaria surprised the world by electing the leader of the opposition Socialist Party (BSP) Georgi Parvanov as president.
This is how the cliché was born: ex-tsar - prime minister, ex-communist - president. At the same time, some disillusioned Bulgarian right-wing commentators started talking about Bulgarian "monarcho-communism". However, a deeper analysis could show that what happened in the general (last summer) and now in the presidential elections has a real basis in the Bulgarian present and could not be called a return to the past.
The reason for this behavior of the voters is primarily the fiasco of the Bulgarian right, embodied in the ruling Union of Democratic Forces (UDS), led by former Prime Minister Ivan Kostov until this summer. During the authoritarian rule of Kostov, the UDS recorded significant successes on the foreign policy front. It started negotiations on accession to the European Union, and the countries of the Schengen Agreement abolished visas for Bulgarian citizens.
UNCLEAN CAMPAIGN: However, domestically, his government has become a symbol of corruption. On the other hand, most Bulgarians blamed the government for their own poverty and therefore the inability to use the newly acquired "European privileges."
At the same time, Petar Stojanov, who received eight percent less votes than the socialist Parvanov in the second round of the presidential elections, was the president of the country. He was elected to that position at the end of 1996, just before the collapse of the socialist government of Jean Videnau. At that time he was the vice president of the UDS.
Aware of the bad image of the Union of Democratic Forces, Stojanov ran as an independent candidate in these elections. As such, he received the support of almost all influential right-wing parties - UDS, the ruling National Movement "Simeon the Second" (NPSD), the VMRO-Đurđevdan coalition, which almost did not enter parliament, and some other smaller parties. In fact, behind him were the political forces that won 70 percent of the votes in the general elections in June.
Part of the blame for the heavy defeat, the truth is only in the second round, lies with Stojanov himself and his campaign headquarters. Namely, during the campaign he tried to discredit his opponents and by allowing himself, among other things, to publish parts of a confidential document from 1999 with vague accusations about the criminal connections of one of the opponents for the presidency - former Minister of the Interior Bogomil Bonev. He then almost forced Prime Minister Simeon to publicly declare his support for his NPSD and, finally, towards the end of the campaign, he rejected non-party neutrality and put on "party garb" in anti-communist rhetoric.
Such inconsistent behavior turned a good part of voters away from Stojanov, but it was not the only reason for the defeat. This was also contributed to by internal conflicts within the UDS, which the mayor of Sofia, Stefan Sofianski - one of the most popular politicians in the country - left between the two election rounds. Also, it turned out that the support of the NPSD is shaky, because the supporters of this bloc are disappointed that Simeon did not designate his candidate for the presidency.
PSYCHOLOGICAL BREAKTHROUGH: When the socialist Parvanov won the first round, his work was practically done. The key was the support he received from the party of ethnic Turks - Ahmed Dogan's Movement for Rights and Freedoms (PPS). The remaining votes came from those who overcame the psychological barrier that Petar Stojanov was invincible.
Parvanov behaved in an exemplary manner, say analysts today. He presented the messages of a moderate socialist leader, although the internal party opposition in the BSP wanted to send him into retirement by highlighting his presidential candidacy.
Parvanov promised to be a "social president", although the Bulgarian constitution does not provide the head of state with powers to directly influence the social and economic situation. In addition, he advocated raising the authority of the presidential institution, which Stojanov "overthrew" during the reign of Prime Minister Kostov.
No surprises in foreign policy are expected from the 44-year-old historian, who is a Parvanov by profession. Even on election night, he tried to dispel potential fears of his victory in the West, announcing that he would work for Bulgaria's entry into both the EU and NATO. But he added that he will try to revive economic ties with traditional partners, mentioning Russia and Ukraine.
Bulgarian analysts, at the same time, in their forecasts of the possible consequences of the election of a socialist leader as head of state, draw attention to the increased appetites of the left, that is, the BSP. The head of the "Gallup" agency called the two million voters who stood behind Parvanov a "new virtual left" that has no party because the Bulgarian Socialist Party as it is now is not their party.
COME JE HEAVIER: Others mention the possibility of a wave of left-wing radicalism, which may develop on both social and ethnic grounds, if the BSP does not maintain a course of rapprochement with the PPS, which Parvanov advocated during the campaign.
It is a policy that aims to improve ties with the Turkish ethnic community, that is, historical reconciliation due to the violent change of their names, which the former communist government did for eighty years. Parvanov also succeeded in getting the BSP to accept Euro-Atlantic integration and the country's membership in NATO, after the bombing of Yugoslavia, which he and the Socialist Party strongly opposed.
The situation is much more difficult on the right side of the Bulgarian political scene. The UDS continues its accelerated downhill course, with mutual accusations of its leaders. In addition, the formation of the NPSD as a center-right political party is yet to come, as well as the creation of the new party of Stefan Sofijanski's Free Democrats.
Perhaps the real winners of these elections are PPS and its leader Ahmed Dogan, the only politician who has remained at the top of Bulgarian politics for 12 years. The PPS entered into a coalition with the NPSD in the government, and with its support, Parvanov was elected president.
Some analysts claim that the party system in Bulgaria is in disarray and that the situation is maintained by the authority of a few people. They are: Prime Minister Simeon Sakskoburg, newly elected President Georgi Parvanov, Ahmed Dogan and Stefan Sofijanski. Analysts say that whether a serious political crisis will be avoided depends on their cooperation. Today, all four emphasize that they are ready to work together, and the future will show whether that will be the case.
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