A limited truce, international peacekeeping forces or relinquishment of territory? There are several scenarios for a possible end to the fighting in Ukraine. Who wants what? And what doesn't he want?
Za Ukraine, the coming weeks may be crucial - it is about the hope that it will not lose the war and that it will reach an agreement that would ensure its survival as an independent and sovereign state.
However, Ukraine is further than ever from fulfilling its demands based on international law, he writes Deutsche says. Prospects for restoring its territorial integrity - that is, restoring sovereignty over Crimea, as well as Donetsk and Lugansk regions, which are Rusija illegally occupied and annexed - they almost do not exist. The new US administration made it clear immediately after taking office in January that Ukraine would probably have to give up some of its territory. Russia already considers those areas part of its territory anyway.
If Ukraine agrees to, at least temporarily, part of its eastern and southeastern territorial integrity, the question remains as to which areas it would cede and how the demarcation line and ceasefire would be secured.
It is important to note that lately the Ukrainian leadership no longer insists on the demand for the complete restoration of territorial integrity.
Ukraine constantly emphasizes its aspiration for NATO membership as a guarantee of lasting peace and deterring Russia from future attacks. However, the new administration of Donald Trump has already rejected that possibility. Even before that, among NATO members, including Germany, there was a large amount of skepticism towards the quick admission of Ukraine into the Alliance.
In addition, Ukraine advocates for the foreign army to ensure a ceasefire, with appropriate security guarantees. However, it is still not clear whether and from whom they will receive them. The US shows no willingness to offer such guarantees, while the Europeans want to provide them only if Washington supports them.
The current front line is about 900 kilometers long and would require a significant international military presence to secure it. The total length of the border between Ukraine and Russia is 2.300 kilometers. Military experts estimate that Western countries would have to deploy at least 150.000 soldiers, and possibly significantly more. However, it is not clear how that figure could be reached without the involvement of the United States.
For President Volodymyr Zelenskyi, the first step towards a truce could be a partial ceasefire, which would include an end to aerial and naval combat. According to one Ukrainian official, such an arrangement would be easier to monitor. Ukraine plans to present such a proposal at an upcoming meeting in Jeddah.
Russia's position
So far, Russia has not given up on any of its war aims. Although it expresses its willingness to negotiate an end to hostilities, its plans for Ukraine have remained unchanged since the start of the attack on February 24, 2022.
Russia rejects the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO. It demands the neutrality of the country and the limitation of its military capacity. According to Western experts, this would effectively mean the demilitarization of Ukraine, leaving it without protection in case of a new Russian attack, given that it would not have Western security guarantees. Moscow rejects the proposal to station Western soldiers on the territory of Ukraine to ensure a ceasefire.
At the beginning of the war, Russia also demanded the "denazification" of Ukraine - a term used to discredit and delegitimize the Ukrainian leadership led by Zelensky. With this, Russia made it clear that it wants a change of the regime in Kiev and that it would replace Zelensky with a president sympathetic to Moscow. The Kremlin now claims that Zelensky is no longer the legitimate president because his mandate expired under wartime conditions. In the meantime, US President Donald Trump has taken that position, ignoring the fact that Ukraine's martial law laws do not provide for elections to be held during the war.
Russia does not want any negotiations on the annexation of Crimea and the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson. It has already included their affiliation with the Russian Federation in its constitution, although to this day it controls only parts of the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions.
Konstantin Remchukov, editor-in-chief of the Russian daily "Nezavisimaya Gazeta", believes that Russia could be ready to give up its territorial claims on those areas it has not conquered, stressing that changing the constitution "would not be a problem". It would effectively freeze the current front line in Ukraine.
Last Friday, the Kremlin again mentioned drafts of a cease-fire agreement negotiated in March 2022 in Istanbul, shortly after the start of the Russian offensive. According to the statement of the office of the Russian president, from the perspective of the USA and Russia, those negotiations could serve as a basis for a peace agreement. At that time, according to media reports, Russia demanded the neutral status of Ukraine, a drastic reduction of its army and weapons, as well as a ban on the presence of Western troops in the country. However, an agreement was not reached, because the positions of both sides were too far apart, and after the discovery of Russian crimes in Bucha, negotiations became practically impossible.
US position
President Trump has left no doubt that he no longer wants to financially and militarily support Ukraine until now. He explains this, on the one hand, by the amount of aid so far, and on the other, by the death and suffering of so many people in this war.
Trump accuses Ukraine of being ungrateful despite billions of dollars in US aid and insists on a deal that would theoretically give America access to the country's valuable natural resources. However, a significant part of these resources is located in the territories that are currently under Russian control.
Zelensky is ready to sign such an agreement, but previously demanded US security guarantees in return. Even before the talks with the Russian representatives, the American side made it clear in February that it considers Ukraine's membership in NATO unrealistic and that it starts from the assumption that Ukraine will have to give up a part of its territory.
It remains unclear what Washington's concrete demands are for Moscow, other than the expectation that both sides reach an agreement on a ceasefire. President Trump threatened Russia with additional sanctions and tariffs, and soon after expressed his understanding for its actions. The measures against Ukraine are more specific. The US has suspended military aid to that country and is no longer providing it with military intelligence.
The US does not want to provide a truce to its own soldiers, or any other security guarantees. They believe that this is primarily the task of Europeans. In the end, it remains unclear whether Trump also wants Zelensky to leave power. The accusation that Zelensky is a "dictator without elections" recently took over the Russian narrative.
The position of the Europeans
Europeans have so far not participated in the US-Russian and US-Ukrainian talks on the ceasefire in Ukraine, but they are still part of different scenarios. Given the fundamental shift in American policy toward Ukraine, they are now trying to craft their own plan to end hostilities.
The goal is to form a kind of "coalition of the willing" that wants to continue supporting Ukraine. According to the British, it currently includes 20 countries. The plan includes ensuring peace by engaging our own soldiers, possibly with the participation of countries from Asia and Oceania.
This coming weekend, the negotiations should continue as part of a virtual conference called by the British government. Representatives of 30 countries would participate in further talks in Paris, a French military official said.
In Europe, France and Great Britain are leading the effort and have already expressed willingness to deploy their own troops. Both countries announced the development of a plan for a one-month ceasefire in Ukraine. According to President Emmanuel Macron, it would apply "in the air, on the seas and in the energy infrastructure". However, no agreement has yet been reached.
In addition, almost all the countries of the European Union are in favor of the continuation of military support to Ukraine. With the exception of Hungary, all EU members endorsed the corresponding declaration at an emergency summit last week.
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