War without end

"When bombs fall, first you hear them, then you see a greenish light falling from the sky. And the cruise missiles leave a yellow flash," says Hamad Alokzai, a Taliban fighter who the other night counted about thirty greenish lights falling from the sky on Kandahar. In the mosque where more than 10.000 worshipers, mostly Taliban supporters, used to gather for prayer, now, last Friday, there were barely a hundred of them. About 50 trucks (which, translated into the Taliban way of warfare, replace what in a more conventional war represent battle tanks, tanks, campers and armored personnel carriers) loaded with weapons and ammunition set off from Kandahar on the way to a stronghold in the hills. October is the month of grapes and watermelons in Afghanistan, and pickup trucks hurtle across the country to markets on the other side of the Pakistani border, proving that life goes on as it should for a people to whom neither bombs nor war are new. The fear is real, however, and the new skill the Afghans have mastered, to distinguish bombs from missiles by color, will not be of much use in surviving the coming winter.

LIFE I FANTASTIC: The shadow of fear loomed over America as anthrax had already claimed several human lives. Just like the bacteria that cause a vicious disease, the infectious fear cocooned in spores has slumbered for decades to eat away at the souls of even the "quietest of Americans."

And that is the reality. Cruise missiles, precision-guided bombs, B-2s flying halfway across the globe from a base in Missouri to Central Asia belong more to science fiction than to real life. In contrast to this thundering, in courtrooms, police stations and banks, a silent war is being waged against the terrorist network that will last for years. The key question being asked today is - when and what kind of victory will end the war.

"Then when you and I and our children wake up and leave the house without worrying that a plane will hit us, or that a truck loaded with explosives will crash into a building, or that the World Trade Center will collapse," was the answer of the American Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld in an interview he gave to the CBS network last week. In other words, the war will not end with the signing of a capitulation on a battleship, Rumsfeld was emphatic. Or, as one US congressman said, referring to the definition of pornography once provided by Justice Potter Stewart: "We'll know it (victory) when we see it."

These are ambitious projections of victory both for the citizens of America and Afghanistan, as well as for the rest of the world, and the concern remains as to what further American action against the Taliban and Osama bin Laden will look like. "It all depends on how you define war," Joseph Nye, dean at Harvard and former deputy secretary of defense in the Clinton administration, told The New York Times. "If removing Osama bin Laden and his network is enough to end the war, then there is a chance of success." But that is not a victory in the war against terrorism."

UNWILLING Partners: Secretary of State Colin Powell went on an official visit to Pakistan and India, in an attempt to use "artificial respiration" to preserve the loose coalition in the immediate environment of the war arena, which is necessary for the military success that the US has set for itself. And while anti-American demonstrations are raging in Pakistan, which are spreading to other countries, as a general, Powell will offer Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf quick (and abundant) economic aid in exchange for loyalty and lending ground for military actions against Afghanistan. Musharraf will also ask Powell to initiate negotiations between Pakistan and India over Kashmir, which Powell's interlocutors in New Delhi will certainly not like. They, on the other hand, will ask General Powell that the US expand the list of terrorist organizations and include groups that operate in Kashmir, but behind which there is logistical and financial support from the official Pakistan. On the other hand, and fortunately for the US, Uzbekistan's demands are much more modest when it comes to supporting US military and intelligence efforts. Uzbekistan signed a military agreement with the US, which allowed this Afghan neighbor to deploy American troops on its territory for a long time. About 200 American soldiers, members of the 2000th Mountain Division, are already stationed at the Kanabad base in Uzbekistan, about 10 km from the border with Afghanistan. In return, the US will guarantee security to the Uzbeks in case of possible retaliation. (A rather sad partner for the US, considering that Uzbekistan has one of the worst governments when it comes to repression and human rights violations in that part of the world that otherwise cannot boast of democratic institutions.)

And while the diplomatic and economic efforts of the US continue to secure the terrain from which Osama bin Laden and his Al Qaeda organization will be on the tail, military options are also expanding, which, due to their nature, will not be particularly televised.

The US already has members of the elite Delta unit on the ground, deep in enemy territory, joined by members of the British SAS (the famous 22nd Regiment), and there are rumors that the French have also sent their own men. They must leave behind nothing, least of all a trace of the green or yellowish color left by cruise missiles, which, as Rumsfeld says, "will not solve the problem." Although they primarily serve as "locators", i.e. a scout that combs the Afghan ravines in search of targets that are fired from the air, these guys are also tasked with dealing hand-to-hand with members of Al Qaeda.

A MOMENT ZA TROOPS: F-18 and B-52 pilots are perfectly safe from the Taliban's nonexistent air defenses, but they can only do one part of the job. Besides, Afghanistan is not very rich in targets. It is clear, therefore, that the time has come for both Bush and Blair to send some form of ground troops, and unlike the war against the FRY, there is no running away from that. The problem, however, is that the troops themselves, as well as the support provided by helicopters, will be significantly more vulnerable than the force seen so far. Of the options available - entry from Pakistan, the establishment of temporary bases in Afghanistan and the Kitty Hawk cruiser sailing in the Arabian Sea - for now, the latter is the most likely, as it is the least risky. But, even without modern anti-aircraft systems, the Afghans have enough stingers in the fight against helicopters, the same ones they bought from the Americans when they were at war against the Soviets. They once destroyed 269 Soviet aircraft (out of 340 attempts). And for some actions, ordinary manual rocket launchers will also be used, with which the Somalis once shot down two American Black Hawk helicopters in Mogadishu (and in the process killed as many as six super commandos from the Delta who came to the aid of their fallen comrades).

So, while the action continues for television cameras and public opinion around the world, the Americans are preparing for a ground war and entering the many caves of Afghanistan in search of a mortal enemy. Provided he and the Al Qaeda leaders are still around. US intelligence sources suggest that Osama bin Laden and his gang may already be outside Afghanistan. Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia are mentioned as possible destinations, but unsavory war zones such as Chechnya, Sudan and Somalia are being examined.