The key sentence of a new report by the Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) is surprising at first glance - global arms exports have stagnated compared to the period from 2010 to 2019, reports Deutsche Welle (DW).
But when you look at individual countries, dramatic geopolitical changes become apparent.
Ukraine is now, in the five-year period from 2020 to 2024, the largest purchaser of heavy weapons in the world.
Compared to the years between 2015 and 2019, this country increased its imports almost a hundred times. Almost nine percent of the world's arms exports ended up in Ukraine.
Russian aggression and fear of America
At the same time, the import of weapons to other European countries increased by 155 percent. This is also a direct consequence of the Russian aggression that began in February 2022.
In addition, according to Swedish researchers, the reason for this increase is the uncertainty regarding the development of American foreign policy.
"The new data reflects the strengthening of armaments in European countries in response to the new threat from Russia," says Matthew George, one of the authors of the report.
"On the other hand, some of the world's largest arms importers, such as Saudi Arabia, China, and India, have seen larger declines in imports, despite growing threat perceptions in their regions as well," he adds.
USA – by far the biggest supporter of Ukraine
According to the same report, 35 countries participated in arms deliveries to Ukraine during the observed period. Between 2020 and 2024, Ukraine received 8,8 percent of total world exports.
The USA provided 45 percent of all deliveries, Germany 12 percent, and Poland 11 percent.
These relations clearly show what changes could occur if the US, under the new President Donald Trump, were to completely withdraw from military support for Ukraine.
Among the world's ten largest arms importers in the period from 2020 to 2024, Ukraine was the only European country, although other European countries also significantly increased their orders and deliveries of arms.
The US will continue to supply Europe
Peter Wezemann, a researcher at the Stockholm Institute, says: "After Russia became increasingly aggressive and transatlantic relations were already under stress during Donald Trump's first term as president, European NATO countries began to reduce their dependence on imports and strengthen their own military industries."
However, adds Wezeman, cooperation between Europe and the US in the supply of weapons has deep roots, so US exports to European partners will continue to grow.
Trump already served as US president from 2017 to 2021 and took office again in January of this year. Now, after an unprecedented row with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, he has stopped military aid to Ukraine. Whether it will remain so remains uncertain.
The USA remains the leading exporter, Russia falls in the ranking
The USA remains the largest arms exporter in the world: 43 percent of the total world arms trade comes from the country that supplied 107 countries in this five-year period.
"The US is in a unique position when it comes to arms exports - its share is more than four times that of the second largest exporter, France," says Matthew George.
On the other hand, Russia reduced its arms exports by 63 percent, and in 2021 and 2022 its total exports were the lowest in the last two decades.
It's no wonder - apparently it was already preparing for war, so it rather strengthened its own military capacities than sold weapons to others.
"The war against Ukraine further accelerated the decline in Russian arms exports because now more weapons were needed on the battlefield." In addition, the sanctions have made it difficult for Russia to manufacture and sell weapons," says Wezeman.
When Russia did export weapons, the main buyers were China and India.
Gulf States and Asia
Four of the top ten arms importers between 2020 and 2024 were Arab countries: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Kuwait. Another four are from the Far East: India, Pakistan, Japan and Australia.
Wezemann is surprised that it doesn't get more attention: "While arms shipments to Europe and the Middle East get the most media attention, Asia and Oceania remain the world's largest arms importing region."
Despite the war in the Gaza Strip, which began in October 2023, arms imports to Israel between 2015 and 2024 hardly changed.
According to SIPRI's report, for its military operations since the beginning of the conflict, Israel has mainly used weapons that had already been supplied to it, primarily from the US.
Thus, the global arms trade is stagnating in volume, but the structure among the recipients of arms is changing drastically.
And things could change even faster: in the coming years, Germany plans to invest astronomical sums in the Bundeswehr and further support for Ukraine - experts estimate that it will be about 400 billion euros.
Such programs primarily increase the profits of global arms manufacturers.
As SIPRI already concluded in December 2024, the revenues of the world's 100 largest arms manufacturers increased by 4,2 percent in 2023, reaching about $632 billion.
