Nicolas Maduro during his visit to Moscow on the occasion of Victory Day in May 2025, showered Vladimir Putin with praise. The Venezuelan president called Russia "a key force of humanity."
The two heads of state then signed an agreement on "strategic partnership and cooperation", not so long ago Rusija also sent bombers to Venezuela to support Maduro
On January 3, Russia stood by as the United States forcibly took Maduro and his wife to New York to stand trial for drug trafficking. writes Deutsche Welle.
Russian air defenses could not protect Maduro
Three days after the overthrow of the Venezuelan president, Putin remains silent. Previously, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed concern and demanded Maduro's release, as well as negotiations between the US and Venezuela.
After a phone conversation in early December, according to official reports, the last message Maduro received from the Russian president was a New Year's greeting.
Maduro was one of the few heads of state to support Russia in February 2022, when Moscow recognized the separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk ahead of a major attack on Ukraine. In December 2018, Russia sent two Tu-160 strategic bombers to exercises in Venezuela, which experts interpreted as a sign of support for Maduro.
The planes landed at the airport in Caracas, the same one from which the United States evacuated the Venezuelan ruler. Russian air defenses could not protect him, according to now US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. How could that happen?
Why doesn't Putin criticize Trump?
"Russian support for Venezuela was more symbolic than practical in nature," Neil Melvin, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told DW. In his opinion, Russia is not in a position to question the use of American armed forces in the neighboring region. German political scientist and author of a book on Russian foreign policy, Felix Rieffer, is not surprised.
After Trump's return to the White House led to a rapprochement between Moscow and Washington, Russia reacted to "American hints regarding Venezuela with relative restraint," Riefer says. "Russia basically let Maduro down the drain before."
One of the reasons is Russia's war against Ukraine and the change in the role of the US — from Kiev's western partner to a mediator, both experts believe. Russia avoids harsh criticism of Washington because it "doesn't want to push it away," says Melvin. In his opinion, Moscow's rhetoric about the events in Venezuela would be "much harsher" if there was no war against Ukraine, but not more than that.
The British expert does not see immediate consequences for the war in Ukraine. That could change if Trump doesn't stop at Venezuela, but goes further and, for example, tries to "annex" Greenland, which belongs to Denmark — something the US president recently hinted at again. NATO would probably not survive such a development, according to Melvin. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen made a similar statement. And what do they think about it in Ukraine?
Cautious optimism in Ukraine
Officials in Kiev are reserved in commenting on the events in Venezuela. President Volodymyr Zelensky said: "If dictators can be treated like this, then the United States knows what must be done next." The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reminded that it does not recognize Maduro as president.
Kyiv experts are cautiously optimistic. Markets expect normalization of relations between the US and Venezuela in due time, which would open up Venezuela to oil production and have a significant impact on the world economy and oil prices, says political scientist Petro Oleschuk from the National University of Kyiv.
"Anything that lowers oil prices benefits Ukraine and could have a positive effect on negotiations. Because the cheaper oil is, the less money Russia has, which makes the idea that Russia is ready for an endless war less and less plausible," says Oleschuk.
In addition, Venezuela has had significant Chinese investments in the oil and gas sector. Those investments have now fallen off, which, according to Serhii Krajev, an expert at the Ukrainian center "Prism", could represent an additional instrument of pressure.
In his opinion, the question arises whether Donald Trump will use it as a negotiating trump card in relations with Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. "There is a potential to shape the situation more actively," says the analyst.
Oleschuk believes that the situation surrounding Maduro could also have indirect consequences for the balance of power in the Ukrainian context, because President Putin was influenced by the fate of Libyan dictator Muammar al-Gaddafi.
"I think that Putin could project that onto himself and in this situation seriously worry about his own security. It could also affect the prospects for negotiations." However, according to Oleschuk, it is unlikely that anyone seriously considered the possibility of applying similar measures against the Russian president.
Another point in which the media drew parallels with Ukraine is the thesis that by arresting Maduro, the US could "weaken" its role as a democratic negotiating partner. However, experts DW spoke to are skeptical. These actions fit into the American doctrine of the Western Hemisphere as a sphere of interest, says Oleschuk. He notes that it is impossible to draw parallels between Maduro's arrest and Russia's aggression against Ukraine. "In the case of Venezuela, the US is not annexing territory or claiming that Venezuela is a fictitious state."
Expert: Russia's position is weakening
German political scientist Felix Rieffer makes a similar argument. Russia could try to use the Venezuela case to once again justify its aggression against Ukraine. It is possible, but "a direct comparison does not hold". Riffer is convinced that Moscow's reputation in the world has weakened:
"Whoever relies on Russia should not hope to be protected." Neil Melvin emphasizes that this is by no means the first time.
"Russia has lost Armenia, Syria and now Venezuela," says a security expert. "Russia's international position is noticeably weakening as it escalates its war against Ukraine and no longer has the resources to maintain such relations."
Even in the case of Cuba, Russia's most important partner in Latin America and one of Venezuela's closest allies, Moscow's protests may be louder, but Russia's options are "very limited," according to Melvin. Cuba is among the countries on which President Trump has recently increased verbal pressure.
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