US President Donald Trump does not rule out the possibility of delivering Tomahawk long-range cruise missiles Ukraine, if Russia continues to oppose a peaceful solution to the war.
Before that, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that he had spoken with Trump on the phone about missiles, but without providing details. Kiev believes that long-range missiles could contribute to the establishment of peace, Lilia Rzhojtska and Roman Goncharenko write for Deutsche Welle.
"We see and hear that Russia is afraid that the Americans might give us 'Tomahawks'. This shows that this kind of pressure can contribute to peace," he said. Volodymyr Zelensky.
On October 12, he stated that, if the USA delivers those missiles, the Ukrainian troops would target only military targets on the territory of Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin he previously claimed that Tomahawk missiles do not pose a serious threat to Russia, but added that their delivery to Ukraine would mean "an absolutely new, qualitatively new phase of escalation" between Washington and Moscow.
His spokesman Dmitry Peskov stressed, however, in an interview with Russian state television that possible deliveries of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine would cause "extreme concern" in Moscow.
On Friday, October 17, Zelensky should meet with Trump in Washington. The Ukrainian president pointed out that in the conversation at the White House, air defense and long-range weapons will be discussed.
"Tomahawk" - an old and reliable missile
The Tomahawk missile is a highly accurate long-range subsonic cruise missile, which can have both strategic and tactical purposes. It is produced in numerous versions - for different warheads, including nuclear ones - and can be launched from different platforms.
"'Tomahawk' is a fairly old missile whose development began in the 1970s. The Americans initially developed it as a carrier of nuclear weapons in three versions: aerial - for bombers, land and sea," explains Ukrainian military expert Konstantin Krivolap in an interview with DW.
The rockets initially had a range of up to 2.500 kilometers. When the nuclear warhead was replaced by a conventional one, it was decided that a range of 1.600 kilometers and a warhead weight of about 450 kilograms would be sufficient. However, there are still models that can fly up to 2.500 kilometers, adds Krivolap.
According to him, the land-based versions of the Tomahawk missiles and the corresponding launch pads were discontinued after the signing of the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate and Short-Range Missiles (INF) between the US and the Soviet Union in 1987. When the US withdrew from that agreement in 2019 during Trump's first term, many of the platforms were reinstated. Krivolap believes that now Ukraine needs land-based versions of the "Tomahawk".
The special feature of this rocket, he says, is that it can fly at a very low altitude, following the configuration of the terrain and bypassing obstacles. "The most important thing about the 'Tomahawk' is its ability to fly extremely low. It makes the best use of technologies that allow cruise missiles to 'read' the terrain."
In the West, it is a cruise missile with conventional (non-nuclear) weapons - the longest range.
Why would the "Tomakovs" be a problem for the Kremlin
The "Tomahawk" missile was put into use in 1983, and the US used it several times in military operations - in Yugoslavia in 1999, when more than 200 missiles were fired from British and American ships, in both wars in Iraq, Libya and Syria. Andrey Kovalenko from the Center for Combating Disinformation at the Security and Defense Council of Ukraine recalls that in 2017 and 2018, "Tomahawks" successfully hit targets protected by Russian air defense during the conflict in Syria.
According to him, the "Tomahawk" uses a complex navigation system, so the opponent, after the radar registers it, has only seconds to react. To effectively intercept such a missile, a dense network of low-range radars, rapid exchange of data on targets and synchronized air defenses are required. "Russian systems then protected Syrian facilities, but without success. 'Tomahawks' are especially effective when fired in bursts - overloading air defenses increases the probability of success. Russian S-400 and Pancir systems are weak against 'Tomahawks,'" says Kovalenko.
Experience with this missile and its technical characteristics would allow the Ukrainian army to target important military targets in Russia at a distance of up to 1.600 kilometers, says military expert and editor-in-chief of the Defense Express portal, Oleg Katkov. "In that way, a certain number of Russian weapons factories could be destroyed," he emphasizes.
The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also estimates that using Tomahawk missiles, Ukraine could seriously damage or even destroy important military facilities deep in Russian territory – for example, the Yelabuga drone factory in the Republic of Tatarstan or the Engels-2 airbase in the Saratov region. From that base, Russia launches strategic bombers that fire cruise missiles from the air in massive combined attacks on Ukraine. ISW estimates that there are a total of between 1.600 and 2.000 military targets on the territory of Russia that the "Tomahawks" could reach.
How many rockets could Ukraine get?
Ukrainian experts, however, fear that their country will not receive a sufficient number of Tomahawks to be able to hit all those targets. After all, says Oleg Katkov, it is not known how many such missiles the US actually possesses, nor how much Ukraine would have to pay for each of them.
It would depend on this whether the "Tomahvci" could change the course of the war. Katkov reminds that Washington is no longer giving arms to Ukraine, but is selling them - for funds provided by European NATO member countries and Canada, through the PURL (Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List) mechanism.
The price of one Tomahawk missile is high and varies from country to country. According to Katkov, the Netherlands is paying $12,5 million for one, and Japan is paying $4,25 million - which is explained by the fact that Washington considers China, Japan's neighbor, the biggest threat to US national security.
"If we take the average amount of financing under the PURL mechanism of half a billion dollars and the Japanese price per piece, we arrive at about 117 missiles. If the Dutch price is applied, that number would be much lower. The production rate of all versions of the 'Tomahawk' in recent years has been about 50 pieces per year. This is not much and means that Ukraine will certainly not get thousands of these missiles, probably even hundreds," explains Katkov. Their number - if Ukraine gets them at all - will depend on how Kiev will use them and whether it could change the balance of power in the war.
Delivery of the "Tomahawk" as a signal to Putin
If US President Trump decided to deliver those missiles to Ukraine, it would be a direct consequence of Putin's rejection of any peace proposal coming from Trump, according to John E. Hurst, senior director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center and former US ambassador to Ukraine.
"The Kremlin's hysteria over the possible delivery of these weapons to Ukraine shows that it could affect Putin's policy," Hurst said in an interview with Deutsche Welle. He believes the Tomahawk deliveries probably wouldn't decide the war, but they could send a signal to Putin and lead the Kremlin to peace talks.
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