Protests in Tbilisi are subsiding, but they could flare up again towards the end of the year, when the change of the president, who is resisting the Government, is announced. Where is he going? Gruzija?
Political analyst Gela Vasadze says that if we want to describe the situation in Georgia in a word or two, the first associations would be - impasse and crisis. This currently applies to all areas of life:
"We are witnessing a political, social, economic and moral crisis caused by the government," he told DW.
Tens of thousands of Georgian citizens have been protesting for weeks. First, they rebelled against the official results of the parliamentary elections held at the end of October. The ruling party "Georgian Dream" won the parliamentary majority, and the opposition says it is an election fraud.
Since last weekend, protests have been directed against the election of the new president of the state, because for the first time he is not elected by the people but by a parliamentary committee. In that commission, "Georgian Dream" has a majority which, in the opinion of the opposition, is illegitimate.
The protests are led by the country's president, Salome Zourabishvili. Her mandate expires on December 29. But she refuses to step down as president because she considers her successor, Mihail Kavelashvili, to be illegitimate.
The protests lack institutional support
Regardless of the support of the president and the persistence of the protesters, the political balance of power remains unchanged. The "Georgian Dream" consolidates power with its actions.
Political scientist Vasadze cites two reasons for this - the strong reaction of government institutions and the lack of institutional support for the protesters. "We see a strong reaction from society, but there is no political process," he says. "Currently, the ruling order is not being fought by the opposition, but by a part of society."
The political scientist adds that the will of the people is not enough to change the existing situation: "Opposition politicians know that, but they don't know what their next step should be." They want new elections, but they don't know how to get them. No one sees a realistic mechanism for changing the power relationship."
Korneli Kakachija of the Georgian Institute for Foreign Policy in Tbilisi also laments the complete uncertainty.
Speaking to DW, he warns that the situation is very flammable and that no one knows what will happen on December 29 when the new president takes office, and the current president refuses to cede the post and leaves the presidential palace.
Three scenarios for Georgia
Kakačija says that there are three possible scenarios: "If nothing happens, Georgia will be something like Serbia." He alludes to the government in Belgrade, which officially wants to join the European Union, but at the same time contradicts it by demolishing democracy and pro-Russian politics.
He calls the second "bad" scenario "Belarusization of Georgia". He thereby warns of the possibility of the government reacting with increasingly brutal force and mass arrests, as happened in Belarus after the presidential elections in 2020. The consequences, as in Belarus, could be "greater isolation and more authoritarianism."
A third scenario envisages a second "rose revolution" of sorts. In 2023, young Georgian reformist politicians launched protests under the slogan "roses instead of bullets for enemies". The revolution was non-violent and ended with a change of government.
The assumption for such a thing, says Kakačija, is that the government gives in under the pressure of the street. However, that doesn't seem to be the case this time. But even that scenario is fraught with risk. A worsening of relations with Russia would be dangerous.
According to DW's interlocutor, Moscow would do everything to harm Georgia, with economic sanctions or influence on the work of the new government.
Last chance on December 29?
Renata Skardzyute-Kereselidze from the Georgian Institute for Foreign Policy believes that pro-European forces in Georgia have another chance. They are preparing for the peak of the crisis on December 29:
"We have experienced that the protests are more and more diverse and are not only happening in the capital Tbilisi, but also in other parts of the country," she says.
He adds that the support of the European Union and the United States is important, so a kind of "competition in attracting the attention of the world public, a competition of narratives" is underway.
She says that the opposition has a more difficult task of asserting itself in the talks, because now, unlike at the beginning of the protests, it operates more in the background.
At the moment, the street protests are really waning. Many citizens who voted for the "Georgian Dream" fear that the situation in Georgia could develop like the situation in Ukraine since 2014.
Then people on the Maidan in Kyiv demonstrated for months against the pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych. In the end, Yanukovych was overthrown, but the protests were bloody.
On the other hand, supporters of the ruling party believe that only this government can prevent a possible war with Russia. Both the party and its founder, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, are believed to be pro-Russian.
Peace with Russia was the main pre-election promise of the "Georgian Dream".
