Rusija, as things stand, is unlikely to provide military support to its ally Iran. What is the reason?
Russia has sided with Iran in the latest escalation between the Islamic Republic and Israel. After all, last week Iran ratified the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement with Russia, a document signed by the presidents of the two countries at the beginning of the year. And yet, despite this deepening alliance, Russia is reluctant to offer military aid to its strategic partner. Why is that so?
Putin condemns Israel
Since the start of Israel's latest operation in Iran, Vladimir Putin has been actively engaging with world leaders on the issue. Immediately after the start of the Israeli attacks last Friday, Putin spoke with both the Iranian president and the Israeli prime minister, conveying different messages to each, he notes. Deutsche says.
According to a statement published on the Kremlin's website, the Russian leader expressed his condolences to the leadership and people of Iran for the numerous human victims and stressed that "Russia condemns Israeli actions, which violate the UN Charter and international law."
The next day, Putin once again condemned the Israeli operation in a telephone conversation with US President Donald Trump.
Moscow's "golden" deal with Tehran
It is no surprise that Russia reprimanded Israel for attacking the Islamic Republic. Iran has long been a close partner of Russia, among other things, because both countries are under strict Western sanctions. Their relationship became closer than ever after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Western allies accused Iran of supplying Russia with military drones, which were eventually used to attack Ukraine's civilian infrastructure. According to media reports, Moscow is believed to have paid for the drones with at least 1,8 tons of gold bars, worth about $104 million, which were transferred to the Iranian company Sahara Thunder. He also estimates that Iran has asked Russia for help in realizing its nuclear program.
Moscow would not want to lose such a reliable partner, analysts believe. "The Kremlin is acting according to the old principle from the Koran: 'Fight and wage war, but don't break the rules,'" assesses Middle East analyst Ruslan Suleimanov. "In other words, Moscow, which has its own interests and presence in the Middle East, would prefer to avoid any uncontrolled chaos in the region," adds Suleimanov.
The Kremlin's chance for progress in Ukraine
On the other hand, experts believe that the Kremlin is probably wringing its hands for distracting the West from the brutal war against Ukraine. On Tuesday, Russia carried out one of the deadliest attacks on Kiev in months, killing 14 people and wounding dozens.
At the same time, the G7 leaders focused on the summit in Canada to address the escalation in the Middle East at the summit. The meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Donald Trump was canceled after the American president's early departure from the summit.
Ruslan Suleimanov believes that it is in the Kremlin's best interest to distract American and European politicians from what is happening in Ukraine. "In this context, Putin could use the opportunity to launch an offensive or cause some other kind of trouble," says the expert.
Military assistance highly unlikely
Following the launch of Israel's military operation in Iran, the Iranian parliament ratified the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement with Russia. Despite such an ambitious title, the treaty does not establish a mutual defense pact and does not commit the parties to provide military assistance to each other in the event of an attack. Instead, it only stipulates that signatories refrain from aiding the other party's opponents.
Middle East analyst Mariana Belenkaya, who left Russia after the outbreak of war in Ukraine and now lives in Israel, believes that it is highly unlikely that Moscow will offer Iran any direct military support, at least not officially and publicly. "There is no need for that, especially since Moscow is trying to restore or improve relations with Washington - although some behind-the-scenes involvement cannot be completely ruled out," believes Belenkaya.
Russia as a mediator between the US and Iran
According to Belenkaja, Vladimir Putin is sincere about recent public offers to act as a mediator between Iran and its adversaries. According to her, last year Putin allegedly advised Khamenei to return to the negotiating table. In a recent interview with the American ABC News, Donald Trump said that he is open to Russia's mediation in that conflict.
Russia, as a mediator, probably cannot put pressure on Iran the way the USA did, but it can serve as a channel for communication, believes Mariana Belenkaja.
During indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran in April, Russia was indeed expected to play a significant role in the event of a nuclear deal with Iran.
Britain's Guardian newspaper reported that Moscow is being considered as a potential destination for Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and could also serve as an impartial arbiter in the event of any violations of the deal. That deal suggested Russia would return Iran's highly enriched uranium back to the country if the US violated the deal.
If such a deal were to be reached, the current guarantors of the 2015 deal, Germany, France and the UK, would lose their roles.
