Maximum commotion

The great Islamic holiday of Ramadan in Afghanistan is marked by fasting and struggles that have fundamentally changed the geography of this country in record time. The military successes of the Northern Alliance and the anti-Taliban campaign have created "maximum turmoil" in the country, as analysts describe the current situation in Afghanistan, in which, for the first time since the beginning of the campaign, the end of the Taliban regime is in sight.

Only a few weeks ago, the Alliance could only dream of such successes. When the US launched a campaign against the Taliban and the Al Qaeda network led by Osama bin Laden almost two months ago, official Washington did not have a wide choice of partners in the country. The obvious choice of allies fell on the Northern Alliance, which at the time few believed would be able to recover and consolidate after the loss of its leader Ahmed Shah Masood. He was killed by Osama bin Laden at the beginning of September, preparing for a major showdown with the USA, wanting to first deliver what he believed would be a fatal blow to the insubordinate "northerners". However, the fortunes of war turned; At that time, the alliance controlled only a small part of the territory in the north of the country, and now it has under its control more than half of the territory of Afghanistan, including the capital Kabul. The Taliban still have Kunduz in the north and Kandahar in the south, the birthplace of the Taliban movement.

DEFENSE I BARGAINING: But the consolidated Alliance is already knocking on the door of Kunduz, which is under siege and whose fall is expected at any moment. About 7000 Taliban, defectors from Kabul and other abandoned cities, are currently defending Kunduz and are supported by volunteers from Arab countries, most of them from Egypt, Sudan, Saudi Arabia and Chechnya. Faced with the unpleasant choice of dying heroically in the defense of a city in the north which is in a hostile environment and under the carpet of American bombs and which they will not be able to hold in their hands for long anyway, or to die at the vengeful hand of Tajiks, Khazars or Uzbeks who are the most in the ranks Alliance, pressured Taliban agreed to negotiations.

Their decision was most likely influenced by a critical mass of Arab volunteers, always ready to bargain. The Taliban from Kunduz, about 7000 of them together with foreign volunteers, are looking for safe passage to Pakistan, and in return they will surrender the city without a fight. US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has already dashed their dreams of being spared, announcing that "there will be no prisoners". Of course, Rumsfeld did not imagine that his special elite units would be directly involved in the violation of the Geneva Convention and other rights and customs of war, which his statement practically announces. Bloodthirsty allies on the ground, newly minted winners from the ranks of the Alliance, will serve him for that.

However, the successes of the Alliance are rather a combination of fortunate circumstances and the political-military alchemy of Afghanistan and the environment stirred up by the US air campaign, rather than the fruit of the real military and political power of the Alliance, which until recently consisted of a handful of unyielding anti-Taliban elements. As in the case of the capture of Kabul, the recipe for pressure on the Taliban in Kunduz and more recently in Kandahar is the same. The US relentlessly bombards the Taliban positions around the cities with carpet bombs, which most often achieve crushing the Afghan rocks into dust, but also kill a certain number of Taliban in the process.

The fierce air campaign is also a test of the endurance of the will of the "disciples of God" and it quickly became clear that loyalty to the Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar is being crowned faster than anyone could have guessed. Omar repeated the call to his followers to fight to the end against the infidels, but fewer and fewer Afghans responded to the call. "Omar no longer has the power he once had," says a commander of the Pashtuns, the largest ethnic community in Afghanistan where the Taliban had their followers until recently. "They keep repeating that we should fight to the end," says Commander Hachik, "but we don't believe them anymore."

Also, Pashtuns have less and less understanding for the "primitive peasants from the south" who destroyed even the smallest traces of cosmopolitanism in Afghanistan in record time. Across Afghanistan, people are deserting from Taliban units and barbers are busy trimming the long beards of converts. In Afghanistan, the side changes overnight: it is enough to cut the beard, the length of which is prescribed by the Taliban regime, and remove the dark turban, and you are already an ordinary citizen who enthusiastically welcomes the liberators. "The Taliban have shown they know how to get men to grow beards," said an unnamed British diplomat, "but it seems to be their only skill."

The fact is that in the war against the Taliban, the two forces regained their confidence.

TRI ELEMENTS: The optimism of this diplomat is still premature. We should not forget about three facts. The Taliban's tactic so far has been retreat, which still cannot be equated with defeat. Second, in Kandahar, now the only serious stronghold of the Taliban, there are still no signs of the Taliban command firing in sight, as evidenced by the small number of Western journalists who have been allowed south by the sudden grace of Taliban representatives in Pakistan. On the way to Kandahar, countless tents of refugees are spread across the desert around the city. These are the poor people who failed to reach the relative safety of Pakistan, who do not want to witness the final showdown for the fall of the Taliban stronghold. A BBC reporter who entered Kandahar comments that the Taliban greeted them "neither with enthusiasm, nor with hostility, but with genuine astonishment".

In other words, when the first Western journalists appeared before the walls of Kandahar accompanied by the Taliban, the southerners seemed to see Martians. And thirdly, although the Pentagon and official Washington refuse to say precisely what the end of the war will be for them, it is known that it will not be until they get hold of the archenemy, Osama bin Laden, dead or alive. Even rather dead, as is heard more and more often in Washington. American special forces who have been in the field for a long time, and according to Rumsfeld's admission there are about 300, have orders to kill him. As one American officer said: "We're not going to ask him to surrender." Condoleezza Rice, the US president's national security adviser, expressed her doubts at a recent press conference that Osama bin Laden will face a lengthy trial. On the other hand, according to the psychological portrait of Osama bin Laden, which was created by the Pentagon based on data about him and a behavioral matrix, the profile they came up with does not indicate that the Saudi multimillionaire would choose to surrender. It is suspected that he has already ordered members of his most loyal guard to kill him before he falls into the hands of the infidels.

GDE JE BIN LOAD: Although the territory controlled by the Taliban is shrinking every day, bin Laden's whereabouts are still a big mystery. However, the Al Qaeda network was crippled in the US action because Rumsfeld claims he has convincing evidence that Atef, the military commander of the terrorist network and Bin Laden's right-hand man and "friend", was killed in the recent attacks on Kabul. Atef's daughters are married to Bin Laden's son, who is believed to keep his father company all the time, and who is known to be a cold-blooded strategist and executor of Bin Laden's crazy projects. The US intelligence service believes that he planned the killing of American commandos in Somalia in 1993, that he is behind the attacks on embassies in Africa in 1998, and that he is the mastermind of the 11/XNUMX operation. "OK, he's neither Osama bin Laden nor Omar," says one US Air Force officer. “He's not John Lennon, he's not Paul McCartney, but he's Ringo Starr.” So the major premium is still out of reach.

Despite speculations that he has already left the country, the Pakistani intelligence service, which is currently the biggest authority on this issue, believes that Osama bin Laden is hiding in one of the many caves in the southeast of the country, which are so drilled that they look like honeycombs. Pakistani intelligence estimates that Bin Laden could be hiding in one of the caves in the Tora Bora area near Jalalabad and believe that he is surrounded by about 1500 of the most faithful Arabs who are ready to give their lives for him. But American strategists with Rumsfeld at the helm are not naive to send their well-trained commandos to peer into every cave and knock on Bin Laden's door.

KO WILL U THE CHASE: These caves, even when empty, are known to be real minefields and to be entwined with wires. Any intruder who stumbles upon them will be the last stumble of his life. That's why the US administration came up with a new plan. Instead of playing hide-and-seek in the caves with Bin Laden, the "Delta" and "Green Beret" commandos expect the Afghans themselves to rush in search of "treasure". However, they must first be convinced that the caves are in fact Sesame from the story of Ali Baba and the 40 Bandits.

In this regard, the Americans, along with cluster and other bombs and humanitarian aid, are dropping tens of thousands of leaflets in Afghanistan offering the sum of 25 million dollars to anyone who provides information about Bin Laden's whereabouts or defeats him personally. "Attention, people of Afghanistan! A $25 million reward is being offered for information or the capture of Osama bin Laden or Ayman al-Zawahiri. These two terrorists are responsible for the death of thousands of innocent people around the world...", says the leaflet and in the electronic message sent by an American EC-130 aircraft with a code name since last weekend. Commando Only. This same plane was used for propaganda during the NATO attack on FRY. The Americans thus hope that the offered reward will be enough incentive for the impoverished and starving Afghans to put their heads in the lion's jaws in order to hasten the final end of their agony.