Flying in fear, or…

Marcel Ospel, the first man of the big Swiss banking group UBS, was given the epithet of the only Swiss who managed to bring the Swiss government to its knees, refusing to participate in the injection of fresh money into Swissair, saying that his bank never financed failed firms. In saving the national aviation darling, which for 70 years was a symbol of reliability, efficiency and accuracy in the world, then the government itself got involved with a gift of 280 million dollars (and gifts are not returned), so Swissair, after two days of complete non-flying, could once again pay for landings, kerosene and regular expenses for only half of his previous flights, but with slightly less fears of possible seizure of aircraft at airports around the world due to unpaid bills. Of course, of the 70.000 employees at Swissair, at least 9000 will lose their jobs for the time being, 24 planes will be sold, and by the end of this month, the healthiest parts of the aviation giant will be taken over by other companies.

According to the October data of the Association of European Aviation Companies, after September 11 and the spectacular attack on the skyscrapers in New York, the direct losses of Europeans exceeded 3,7 billion euros, 20.000 workers lost their jobs, more than a hundred planes remained in hangars, the number of passengers was reduced by a quarter, and those who would like to travel to the USA are less by a third.

EVS LESS TRUST: Data on losses on the other side of the ocean is even worse - in September, 60 percent of potential passengers abandoned the plane, this month, with all the additional guarantees for the safety of passengers and crew, as well as with a strong advertising campaign about the need to return to normal as soon as possible life, and therefore also in airplanes, the number of those who would like to fly is 40 percent smaller, and forecasts are that by the end of the year, the total number of passengers could be smaller by a quarter. The fear of flying has made people less and less interested in what used to be the safest mode of transportation. Of the estimated $12 billion in direct losses of the world's airlines for 2001, half will be incurred on US domestic air traffic. Before the September attack, analysts at IATA, the world's air carrier association, had predicted losses this year almost six times lower. The situation improved to some extent with the US government's promise to help airlines in the US with $15 billion with non-returnable subsidies and bank guarantees (some even got so excited that they announced that the liquidation of one third of the airlines was currently avoided), so many European carriers wanted to apply a similar recipe, primarily in Great Britain. But, for now, the Europeans were very lucky - for example, KLM asked for financial help from the Dutch government, and the latter translated it into the idea that the entire operation should be carried out at the level of the European Union, which, however, refused to treat the airline on the American level way, arguing that such support for airlines would be inappropriate and called on governments in Europe to copy that solution themselves, if they wanted to. That advice seems to have been heeded by the Italian government - Alitalia received 190 million dollars in aid, and was exempted from paying tax on the sale of airline tickets.

NEW GLOBALIZATION: The consequences of the September demolition of the World Trade Center in New York, of course, are far from ending only with the suffering of airline carriers. Boeing, the world's largest aircraft manufacturer, plans to lay off 30.000 of its 200.000 employees by the end of next year due to reduced interest or cancellation of previous orders. "We regret that this step will affect the lives of so many of our people, but we must do everything to improve the company's situation at this difficult time" - this is the essence of the announcement of the Boeing board of directors. For those unaccustomed to such an address to employees and the public, the announcement may sound cold, but experts do not doubt its effectiveness.

Not even in the Association of Airports in the USA, which gathers 900 members, is it any better - losses, in just three weeks of fear of flying, after the attacks on New York and Washington, exceeded two billion dollars, but so far, in the aid package of the American government, they have not they managed to get even a penny.

And while tourism and many other sectors are still being re-examined (it remains to be seen which of the exotic countries will remain on the list of favorite destinations), it seems that only those who were not directly facing the American market will have the least trouble. Thus, CSA, for example, did not cancel any of its lines, and instead of small ATR planes with 50-70 passengers, flights to Switzerland and some other Western European countries are now operated by aircraft with 120-150 seats. Something similar is happening in the Polish LOT, in the Hungarian MALEV...

By the way, the banker Marcel Ospel from the beginning of this text, according to the cold assessments of top economists, preserved the image of a successful banker with a tough, Anglo-Saxon style, saying that, just as in the case of previous major oil or automotive crises in the world, and after the latest crisis in the aviation industry, - traffic, bring out "a few big players who will divide the world market among themselves". In the deafening panic over signs of a general recession, some may only later recall what Ospel actually said.