Who needs whom

"Friends always, enemies never", were the words used by a state television reporter to qualify the signing of the long-term Friendship and Cooperation Agreement signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and his guest from Beijing, Jiang Zemin, in the Kremlin on Monday. With adequate fanfare in the gilded halls of the ancient castle, compliments, hugs, and, by God, kisses were exchanged. And then a friendship charter bound in hard leather with the applause of those present. In the meantime, the wives were drinking tea in the adjoining rooms, although none of the journalists noted whether the tea was Russian or Chinese.

There were more reasons to smile... Mr. Putin thus congratulated the other Jiang on the 80th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China. Until a decade ago, the two giant neighbors shared the same ideology, although their mutual relations had various ups and downs, and even a hint of open hostility during the sixties when there was hardly a day without border shootings, including deaths. Even to this day, the border has not been precisely agreed upon, there is still about two percent of the disputed territory, and President Putin stated with satisfaction that this too will soon be resolved in a friendly spirit as prescribed by the Agreement. He emphasized that the Agreement was signed on China's initiative, which many analysts interpret as a sign that China fears a unipolar world with only one "gendarme" (the USA) in town even more than Russia.

INTEREST I DINNER: According to many Moscow analysts, China is more afraid of Washington's intention to build a protective envelope against nuclear missiles (NMD - Nuclear Missile Defence). Namely, Moscow has a far greater number of missiles than Beijing, and would have a better chance of breaking through that shield if it were ever installed. Both Moscow and Beijing vigorously oppose Washington's intention to violate the provisions of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Defense (ABM) Treaty by establishing such protection. However, in the last month, Moscow has objected somewhat - less violently than before, and Beijing has launched a diplomatic offensive in order not to prevent the authorities in the Kremlin from reaching an agreement with the Americans, as it were, on the fly, under the grain. In Moscow, namely, it is believed that Washington will do what it intends regardless of the opposition of others. Well, since that's the case, it wouldn't be bad to agree to the amendment of the Agreement and maybe something to the Ušići...

The Friendship and Cooperation Agreement does not mention this issue, but the two presidents signed another document (again, hard, leather bound) expressing their mutual support for the 1972 Agreement. But there are no details about what if Washington, as before, pays no attention to this opposition. Other aspects of the Agreement are also quite unclear. The goal is to promote and increase economic cooperation. Trade exchange last year amounted to eight billion dollars, which is ridiculously small for such two countries. By comparison, China has a trade exchange of $115 billion with the US. In anticipation of the visit, many Russian businessmen began to rub their hands, it is expected, for example, that the Chinese will order the next round of passenger planes from Russia instead of Boeing (Tupolev 204). There is, of course, the Chinese shopping basket for military equipment. During the nineties, China was the most important Russian client, buying submarines, fighter planes, missile systems, ships... If this continues, China will soon, say some analysts, have more modern Russian fighter planes than the Russian Air Force. The head of international relations at the Ministry of Defense, General Leonid Ivashov, was not ready to talk about the details: "Our regular cooperation is very active and takes place on the military-technical level and in regular visits by high-ranking officers." Defense ministers meet at least three times each year."

KO WILL FIRST DO - BUSH: According to Ivan Sofranchuk, director of the Moscow Center for Defense Issues, it is to be expected that the export of Russian military equipment and technology to China will increase many times over. But, says Sofranchuk, that is about all that can be expected. Namely, the Charter signed by the two leaders is not a charter of alliance, but of friendship. And the difference is big, says Sofranchuk. "If it was an alliance, then both sides would have the obligation to come to the aid materially and even militarily if one of the two countries was attacked, or in the event of a strategic crisis." However, the Partnership Agreement only means that in the event of a crisis there would be consultations, which practically does not produce any obligations."

Washington can sleep peacefully... it is not about any dark plan of current and former communists (and who will believe them, once a red...) to oppose his dominance on the world political stage. Former long-time foreign policy editor of "Izvestia" newspaper Vladimir Nadejn says that both Moscow and Beijing know well who is the boss... "Both China and Russia are very practical countries." Ideology is a thing of the past, other things are important. It is clear to both of them that the confrontation with Washington is not leading them anywhere. They know where the power is… they know where the money is… and they know what is most important to their state interests. I personally think that after the meeting, Putin and Jiang will compete as to who will be the first to call Bush and convey his impressions from the summit."

Even if Hope is exaggerating, the fact is that, at least as far as Moscow is concerned, the partnership with Beijing has always been laced with a slight suspicion of the ultimate and ultimate intentions of the southeastern neighbor. The Russian Far East has four million inhabitants, and the neighboring Chinese province has 140 million. So, living space, from the Russian side of the border, if you like. Nadejn believes that at the beginning of the 21st century, this longing for living space has been overcome and that Russia should not be afraid of greater openness towards China. "What's wrong with California with so many Chinese?" California may be missing nothing (except for electricity this year) for other reasons than just an abundance of Chinese restaurants.